@article {bnh-2344, title = {Using natural disaster scenarios to better understand emergency management requirements: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {137}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to produce realistic natural disaster event scenarios to help emergency managers understand and prepare for eventual natural disasters. Scenarios consist of numerical data such as maps and tables representing the impacts of a plausible natural disaster scenarios; plausibility is determined by analyzing past event occurrence, intensity and impact data. Scenarios are created by using a suite of analysis tools including statistical inference, expert elicitation and comparative analysis in order to create abstract representations of an event, which is as close to reality as possible.

Over the past year, this project has delivered its first two complete scenarios, namely, an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 occuring in the Para fault underneath Adelaide CBD, and a tropical cyclone affecting SE Queensland (to be delivered third quarter 2015). The outcomes of the Adelaide scenario comprise:

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Total aggregated damage to residential and commercial properties

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Maps showing the distribution and intensity of damage to buildings and casualties

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Distribution of infrastructure and essential facilities (hospitals, schools, roads, etc) that would be destroyed in such an event

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Comparative analysis with past events

These outcomes and their detailed interpretation were delivered in a corresponding technical note. Results were presented to end-users in a workshop held in Adelaide including representatives of SAFECOM and other SA government agencies including SA police and DPTI. According feedback from end-users, future scenarios should:

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Take into account the distribution of vulnerable populations (elderly, disabled)

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Account for the relationship between different infrastructure systems (e.g. how damage to roads impacts hospital operations).

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Cost of response and cost-benfit analysis of mitigation measures

Following this, work on year 2 scenarios has begun. A workshop was held with NSW SES end user to determine appropriate scenario events of interest to their agency. This complemented comments and suggestions drawn from the full end-user community at the most recent RAF. Resultant scenarios to be explored over the coming year will be:

  1. A sequence of minor and major flood events in NSW
  2. Heatwave mortality during a major event in VIC
  3. Tropical cyclone induced flooding in SE Qld and northern NSW
}, issn = {137}, author = {Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and M. S. Mason} }