@article {bnh-5184, title = {Wave ensemble forecasts for tropical cyclones in the Australian region}, journal = {Ocean Dynamics}, volume = {68}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {603-625}, chapter = {603}, abstract = {

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4o) and regional (resolution 1/10o) domains with forecast ranges of + 7 and + 3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing + 10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-1145-9}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007\%2Fs10236-018-1145-9}, author = {Stefan Zieger and Diana Greenslade and Jeffrey Kepert} }