@article {bnh-8338, title = {A guide to reconstructing cropland wildfires {\textendash} data collection, collation and analysis for case study construction}, number = {729}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This guide is intended to provide the fire behaviour analyst tasked with preparing a case study of a cropland wildfire with the basic set of methods, tools and information necessary to create a meaningful summary of the behaviour and spread of that fire. While the information and examples provided are specific to the case of wildfires burning in cropland fuels, the methods and tools are such that they can be applied to wildfires burning in any vegetation type given due consideration of the differences in the applicable factors and conditions.

This guide provides background information on the importance of undertaking case studies of wildfires, particularly across the broad range of wildfire types and intensities, for developing a case study library from which a large range of lessons may be learned{\textemdash}those immediately related to the incident itself but also those that may be gained from a perspective of time and space later.

A detailed discussion of fire behaviour in cropland fuels and the factors that affect fire perimeter shape and growth are discussed. The effects of suppression efforts, their effectiveness and likely impact on fire shape and spread are also discussed. Understanding the fuels and landscape features across which a cropland wildfire burns, in particular those non-crop fuels such as roadside verges and grazing paddocks, and their condition and state, are critical to interpreting observed fire behaviour and fire propagation across the landscape. Similarly, detailed information on the weather driving the wildfire is critical to understanding how and why a fire spread the way it did.\  These data can be divided into two groups{\textemdash}those that should be collected during the fire, such as observations of fire behaviour and spotting, and those that can be collected after the fire, such as fire progression and burnt area and crop status and distribution. Assessment of the reliability of the data collected for the purpose of compiling a case study is essential to providing context and informing assessment of dependability of data used for later analysis.

Finally, the guide provides suggestions for documenting the fire event, building the chronology and development of the incident, and writing a case study that is pithy and to the point. Checklists of essential information to be collected during and immediately after the fire (including sample fire spread observation forms), suggested observations to be collected from first attack personnel and prompter questions for when doing firefighter debriefs and interviews of eyewitnesses are also provided.

}, issn = {729}, author = {Sullivan, Andrew and Cruz, Miguel G. and Matt P Plucinski} } @article {bnh-8335, title = {Investigating the suitability of aviation tracking data for use in bushfire suppression effectiveness research}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Aircraft are an important part of bushfire suppression and their use is increasing. They were used heavily during the 2019/20 {\textquotedblleft}Black Summer{\textquotedblright} bushfire season in NSW and several inquiries have highlighted the need for research into their effectiveness.

Tracking equipment is becoming routinely deployed on aircraft and there is increasing availability of high-quality ancillary data such as aerial imagery and fire severity mapping. These allow detailed analyses of aircraft activities. However, the usefulness of the data needs to be evaluated, and the analysis needs to be informed by information about the tasking objectives of the aircraft and whether those objectives were met.

This project provides an initial investigation into the process of evaluating aerial suppression using these new data sources and interviews with personnel involved in the suppression activities.

Firebombing event data (drops/fills) from the 2019/2020 bushfire season in NSW from the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC){\textquoteright}s Arena database was provided by the NSW Rural Fire Service. This data included ~70000 aircraft suppression drop locations and times from aircraft that included helicopters (mainly large and medium helitaks), Single-Engine Air Tankers and Large Air Tankers. As an initial step, we examined the data for completeness, accuracy and errors, and described the data contents. This data was missing for most of the aircraft known to be dropping on the fires, especially the smaller ones. The type of drop (gel, water, retardant) was unknown in most cases, the quantity dropped was unknown in 45\% of cases, and the location for the end of drops was often unreliable.

We then tested methods to identify drop objectives based on relationships between drops data and other spatial data including building locations and weather. Using a combination of automated pattern matching and manual checking, the data can be used to identify cases where the objective was initial attack, extinguishing spot fires, asset protection, pre-emptive laying of retardant lines and direct attack. There were a few cases where the success or failure of the objective could be assessed purely with the spatial data. We also explored two particular analytical methods for determining objectives. First, we compared the distribution of Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI, fire weather) during a fire and for the drops within that fire. This identified several fires for which a large proportion of the drops were more likely to be during extreme fire weather even though extreme weather was rare in that fire. Second, we compared the distribution of distance to houses between all parts of the fire and the drops at that fire. Here we found many fires where the drops were clustered closer to houses than if the drops were (hypothetically) spread evenly across the fire ground. These analyses are preliminary but show great potential.

We conducted 10 interviews with personnel who worked as Air Attack Supervisors during the 2019/20 season. Interviewees were knowledgeable and experienced, and expressed the view that the aerial program could be improved with further knowledge sharing and training. They provided a lot of general information about objectives, how they learned during the season, their views on limitations in aerial suppression, and their own capacity to document the process.

The interviews also highlighted several operational issues that warrant more investigation using a large number of aviation specialists and more specific questions. Chief among these are:

We conducted eight detailed case studies where there were interesting features in the drop data and insightful comments from the interviewees. These were particular days at a particular part of a fire. They included one example with multiple objectives playing out as one failed and the fire spread changed, several where property protection was the dominant objective (largely successful), one on spot fires, and two initial attacks, of which one succeeded and the other failed.\  The case studies demonstrate the power of the approach where spatial data and interview interpretation are combined.

The air drop data has the potential to enable deep analyses of aircraft use and effectiveness during real bushfire responses, especially when combined with other contextual information, such as objectives and environmental conditions. This will require more matching of the data to interviews to determine whether the drop data can be used in this way. We have started this process in this report, identifying clear clusters of activity related to weather and distance to houses, and cross-checking with interviews in the case study, and in some of these cases, the success could be judged. In order to realise the full potential of this approach, the completeness and accuracy of the drop data should be improved and interviews should become a routine part of the seasonal review process.

}, issn = {725}, author = {Heather Simpson and Michael Storey and Matt P Plucinski and Owen Price} } @article {BF-3970, title = {Modelling the probability of Australian grassfires escaping initial attack to aid deployment decisions}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {22}, year = {2012}, month = {11/2012}, chapter = {459}, abstract = {Most grassfires that occur in southern Australia are contained to small areas by local suppression resources. Those that are not require extra resources from neighbouring districts. Identifying these fires at the start of initial attack can prompt early resource requests so that resources arrive earlier when they can more effectively assist with containment. This study uses operational data collected from Australian grassfires that used ground tankers and aircraft for suppression. Variables were limited to those available when the first situation report is provided to incident controllers and included weather parameters, resource response times, slope, curing state, pasture condition and estimated fire area at initial attack. Logistic regression and classification trees were used to identify grassfires likely to escape initial attack by (a) becoming large (final area >=100 ha), (b) being of long duration (containment time >=4 h) or (c) either or both of these. These fires would benefit from having more resources deployed to them than are normally available. The best models used initial fire area and Grassland Fire Danger Index as predictor variables. Preliminary operational decision guides developed from classification trees could be used by fire managers to make quick assessments of the need for extra resources at early stages of a fire.}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF12019.htm}, author = {Matt P Plucinski} } @article {BF-3089, title = {The effect of aerial suppression on the containment time of Australian wildfires estimated by fire management personnel}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2011}, abstract = {The addition of aerial firefighting resources to wildfire suppression operations does not always result in faster fire containment. In this paper, containment times of fires with aerial suppression are compared with estimated containment times for the same fires without aerial suppression. Senior firefighting personnel who had worked on each fire estimated whether fires could have been contained within a time class if aircraft were not available. Data from 251 wildfires were analysed based on four fire-containment time classes: <=2, 2{\textendash}4, 4{\textendash}8 and 8{\textendash}24 h from the start of initial attack. Aircraft were perceived to reduce time to containment when firefighting conditions were more challenging owing to fuel hazard rating, weather conditions, slope, resource response times and area burning at initial attack. Comparisons of containment time with and without aircraft can be used to develop operational tools to help dispatchers decide when aircraft should be deployed to newly detected fires.}, doi = {10.1071/WF11063}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and G.J. McCarthy and Jennifer J Hollis and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2793, title = {Project FuSE Aerial Suppression Final Report}, year = {2011}, institution = {CSIRO}, type = {Bushfire CRC Research Report}, abstract = {Three experimental fires were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of different fire suppression chemicals delivered by aircraft in March 2008. The fires were conducted in mallee heath fuels in Ngarkat Conservation Park, South Australia, at a site being used for an existing fuel and fire dynamics research project. Each fire was started from a long ignition line and allowed to fully develop before being attacked by suppression. The only suppression applied to these fires came from two single engine air tankers (Airtractor AT-802F) dropping a single suppressant type in each experiment. A water enhancing gel was directly applied to the fire edge in one experiment, while a foam suppressant was applied in another. The third experimental plot involved a fire burning into a pre-laid retardant line. The different suppression chemicals used in the experiments could not be directly compared. This was because the time taken for fire to burn through most of the drops could not be determined as they were breached by spotting or burnt around and because of the range of conditions experienced for the different drops. The aerial suppression experiments presented here allowed for the development and testing of aerial suppression assessment methodologies and have produced data that can be used to develop training material. This data highlights the importance of drop placement with regard to fire behaviour and location. Footage captured using a hand held airborne infrared camera in an aerial platform demonstrated some important aerial suppression tactical issues, such as drop coverage, drop accuracy and drop placement. Fire burning through one of the retardant drops highlighted the importance of adequate ground coverage levels for stopping fire propagation. }, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/project-fuse-aerial-suppression-final-report}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and Cruz, Miguel G. and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-3542, title = {A Review of Wildfire Occurrence Research}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Wildfire occurrence statistics describe the presence and quantity of ignitions across spatial and temporal scales. Fire occurrence research is based on regional fire incidence data containing the time, location and cause of all fires within a defined area and time period. This research has also relied on other spatial and temporal data, including terrain, land cover, human geography, weather, and fire danger indices, in analyse and modelling.}, author = {Matt P Plucinski} } @article {BF-2070, title = {Computing forest fires aerial suppression effectiveness by IR monitoring}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, year = {2010}, month = {07/2010}, abstract = {This paper describes the methodology developed to analyse IR images obtained during the aerial suppression experiments that were conducted in Ngarkat Conservation Park, South Australia, on 3{\textendash}5 March 2008. This methodology has been specifically developed in order to extract the maximum information from the IR images taken from an observing helicopter, in those tests where chemical suppressants are applied directly on the fire, although it could eventually be applied to other similar situations. The information obtained after applying this methodology allows quantifying the aerial suppression effectiveness.}, keywords = {Airborne monitoring, Chemical suppressants drops, Fire behaviour, Mallee woodland, Project FuSE}, issn = {03797112}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2010.06.004}, author = {P{\'e}rez, Yolanda and Pastor, Elsa and Planas, Eul{\`a}lia and Matt P Plucinski and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-1048, title = {Evaluation criteria for large air tankers in Australia}, year = {2009}, month = {Nov-09}, pages = {20 pages}, institution = {BCRC / CSIRO}, author = {Matt P Plucinski} } @article {BF-1047, title = {The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Aerial Firefighting in Australia}, year = {2007}, month = {7/05/2007}, institution = {Bushfire CRC }, type = {Research Report}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and J.S. Gould and G.J. McCarthy and Jennifer J Hollis} } @article {BF-1042, title = {Aerial Suppression Experiment, Cambridge Tasmania, 21-23 February 2005}, volume = {47}, year = {2006}, month = {6/30/2006}, institution = {Ensis- CSIRO }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/2005_suppression_experiment.pdf}, author = {Matt P Plucinski and G.J. McCarthy and J.S. Gould} }