@article {bnh-7417, title = {Climatology of wind changes and elevated fire danger over Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Wind changes are a critical factor in fire management, particularly on days of elevated fire danger, and have been shown to be a factor in many firefighter entrapments in Australia and the USA. While there have been numerous studies of frontal wind changes over southeastern Australia since the 1950s, a spatial climatology of wind change strength and frequency over Victoria has hitherto been limited by the relatively low number of observation sites that have both high temporal resolution observations and sufficient length of record. This study used a recently developed high spatial (4-km grid) and temporal (1 hour) resolution, 46-year, homogeneous gridded fire weather climatology data set to generate a climatology of wind change strength by season at each gridpoint across Victoria. The metric used to define a wind change is the vector difference between the wind speed and direction over each 1-hour interval, with the highest value occuring on each day being selected for spatial analysis of strength and frequency. The highest values of wind change strength are found along the crest of the Great Dividing Range (the Great Divide), with a peak in spring. Elsewhere, the highest values occur in summer, with the areas south of the Great Divide, west of Melbourne and in central Gippsland showing higher values than the remainder of the state. The strength of wind changes generally decreases north of the Great Divide, although it is stronger in the northwest of the state in spring rather than in autumn. Lowest summertime (and other seasons) values occur in the northeast of the state and in far-east Gippsland. Exploring the frequencies of days when the highest daily Forest Fire Danger Index and the highest daily wind change strength jointly exceed defined thresholds shows that the northwest of the state has the highest springtime frequencies, whereas the highest autumn frequencies occur west of Melbourne and south of the Great Divide. The highest numbers of joint events in summer (when the greatest frequencies also occur) extend from central Victoria west to the South Australian border, with a secondary maximum in central Gippsland. These analyses offer important information for fire weather forecasters and for fire practitioners when preparing for a fire season or managing a fire campaign (for example, for allocating resources or understanding risks).

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, climatology, extreme weather, fire danger, fire management, firefighter entrapment, Victoria, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19043}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES19043}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Sarah Harris and Brown, T and Alex Chen} } @article {bnh-7475, title = {Exploring the key drivers of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests using expert-derived conceptual models}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, pages = {1775{\textendash}1798}, abstract = {

Context

Fire behaviour research has largely focused on dry ecosystems that burn frequently, with far less attention on wetter forests. Yet, the impacts of fire in wet forests can be high and therefore understanding the drivers of fire in these\ systems\ is vital.

Objectives

We sought to identify and rank by importance the factors plausibly driving flammability in wet eucalypt forests, and describe relationships between them. In doing so, we formulated a set of research priorities.

Methods

Conceptual models of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests were elicited from 21 fire experts using a combination of elicitation techniques. Forest flammability was defined using fire occurrence and fireline intensity as measures of ignitability and heat release rate, respectively.

Results

There were shared and divergent opinions about the drivers of flammability in wet eucalypt forests. Widely agreed factors were drought, dead fine fuel moisture content, weather and topography. These factors all influence the availability of biomass to burn, albeit their effects and interactions on various dimensions of flammability are poorly understood. Differences between the models related to lesser understood factors (e.g. live and coarse fuel moisture, plant traits, heatwaves) and the links between factors.

Conclusions

By documenting alternative conceptual models, we made shared and divergent opinions explicit about flammability in wet forests. We identified four priority research areas: (1) quantifying drought and fuel moisture thresholds for fire occurrence and intensity, (2) modelling microclimate in dense vegetation and rugged terrain, (3) determining the attributes of live vegetation that influence forest flammability, (4) evaluating fire management strategies.

}, keywords = {Cognitive mapping, Conceptual models, Expert elicitation, Fire behaviour, fire intensity, flammability, Structured decision-making, Structured expert judgement, Wet forest, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, author = {Jane Cawson and Victoria Hemming and Ackland, A and Wendy R. Anderson and David Bowman and Ross Bradstock and Brown, T and Jamie Burton and Geoffrey J. Cary and Thomas Duff and Alex Filkov and Furlaud, James M. and Tim Gazzard and Kilinc, Musa and Petter Nyman and Ross Peacock and Mike Ryan and Jason J. Sharples and Gary J. Sheridan and Tolhurst, K.G. and Tim Wells and Phil Zylstra and Trent Penman} } @conference {bnh-2074, title = {Victoria fire weather climatology dataset - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Sarah Harris and Graham A. Mills and Brown, T and Domagoj Podmar and H. Reinbold and Matt Fearon} } @book {BF-2393, title = {Developments in Environmental SciencesWildland Fires and Air PollutionChapter 23 Managing Smoke from Wildfires and Prescribed Burning in Southern Australia}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, pages = {535 - 550}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {In Australia the responsibility for management of forests and other public lands rests largely with state governments, and multiple government agencies may be involved in fire management. Whether resulting from wildfire, fuel reduction, or silvicultural operations, biomass burning often stimulates community concerns about hazards from fine particulates and chemical compounds contained in smoke. Management practices and community perceptions of smoke from biomass burning differ from region to region according to social and environmental factors. Recognition of the need for a response to concerns has led to the development of a smoke management research program within the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, in conjunction with fire and land management agencies and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau). This program aims to assist land management planning by predicting where smoke from scheduled burns would be transported, thus providing the opportunity to avoid burning in situations where there is potential for adverse community impact. The primary tool provided is a dispersion model forecast using input from the Bureau{\textquoteright}s operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Decision tools are applied in a similar manner for prescribed burning and wildfires and have been used by agencies to provide community advice and to avoid smoke hazards during aircraft operations. We investigated strategies used by land management agencies to minimize community impact of smoke from prescribed burns, and studied the way in which the dispersion model forecasts are integrated into their decision support systems. Included are details of HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory{\textquoteright}s (HYSPLIT) configuration, several examples of its use in prescribed and wildfire events, and the research direction being pursued to improve both the quality of the dispersion forecasts and to enhance the use of these forecasts in agency planning.}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-8177\%2808\%2900023-5}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills and Lachlan W. McCaw and Brown, T} } @proceedings {BF-2996, title = {A High-Resolution Historical Fire Climate Data Set For Victoria}, year = {2008}, address = {USA, United States of America }, url = {http://knowledgeweb.afac.com.au/research/fire_behaviour/weather/a_high-resolution_historical_fire_climate_data_set_for_victoria}, author = {Brown, T and Graham A. Mills and T. Ghidey and H. Reinbold} }