@inbook {bnh-8346, title = {Connecting Weather and Hazard: A partnership of physical scientists in connected disciplines}, booktitle = {Towards the {\textquotedblleft}Perfect{\textquotedblright} Weather Warning: Bridging Disciplinary Gaps through Partnership and Communication}, year = {2022}, pages = {149}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, organization = {Springer Nature}, chapter = {6}, abstract = {

Achieving consistency in the prediction of the atmosphere and related environmental hazards requires careful design of forecasting systems. In this chapter, we identify the
benefits of seamless approaches to hazard prediction and the challenges of achieving them in a multi-institution situation. We see that different modelling structures are adopted in different disciplines and that these often relate to the user requirements for those hazards. We then explore the abilities of weather prediction to meet the requirements of these different disciplines. We find that differences in requirement and language can be major challenges to seamless data processing and look at some ways in which these can be resolved. We conclude with examples of partnerships in flood forecasting in the UK and wildfire forecasting in Australia.

}, keywords = {Cold, Coupled model, Evaluation, Fire, Forecaster, Heat, hydrology, Ocean Flood, Seamless, Winter}, issn = {978-3-030-98989-7}, doi = {doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_6}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_6$\#$Abs1}, author = {Brian Golding and Jenny Sun and MIchael Riemer and Nusrat Yussouf and Helen Titley and Joanne Robbins and Beth Ebert and Tom Pagano and Huw Lewis and Claire Dashwood and Mika Peace} } @article {bnh-7900, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling {\textendash} final project report}, number = {650}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events as publications; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI); and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has delivered across several activities:

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has provided fire and meteorology expertise during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications.\  However, it successfully realises the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The operational support capability is recognised and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau.

To complete the project we will finalise publication of the draft papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature; this will expand the international body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies.\ 

We are pleased to bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge on fire and atmosphere interactions.\  We have also delivered an important capability in ACCESS-Fire that can provide ongoing benefit to the field of meteorology and fire prediction and to the Australian community into the future.

In the coming months we will continue our conversations with partners and end-users to establish plans for future use and development of ACCESS-Fire as the BNHCRC transitions to the new Disaster Resilience Research Institute.\ \  ACCESS-Fire is an important research tool and has the potential to be a critical operational tool. It will assist in informing fire management decisions as we face increasingly hazardous scenarios in a changing climate.

}, keywords = {coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {650}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-8253, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of five Black Summer fires using the ACCESS-Fire model - Black Summer final report}, number = {705}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

This research builds on previous work completed during the Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling ACCESS-Fire project, by conducting case studies of five major bushfires that occurred across Australia during the 2019-20 summer. The previous work provided valuable insights into the drivers of periods of extreme fire behaviour associated with the Waroona fire in WA, and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW.

The main objectives of this project are: to investigate the meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour at five further fire events; to further test the reliability and stability of the model in different environments across Australia; and to support and share learnings from the events of the 2019-20 summer with partner agencies.

The fire events nominated by state jurisdictions for investigation were: Badja Forest (New South Wales), Stanthorpe (Queensland), Green Valley Talmalmo/Corryong\ (NSW/Victoria), Kangaroo Island (South Australia); and Yanchep (Western Australia).

The case studies show that the local context for each fire is important. Each of the fires posed significant challenges in different ways. In the heavily forested areas of NSW and Victoria, the sheer size, intensity, and duration of the fires were distinctive. At other fires, the proximity of local communities and infrastructure posed serious challenges. All fires were active in the overnight period when conventional fire danger indices typically suggest a decrease in fire activity.

The marine boundary layer, local coastal effects and topography combined to generate complex wind flows that influenced the progression of the Kangaroo Island fire. We also studied the way in which the sea breeze circulation interacted with the Yanchep fire, and examined the impact of a prescribed burn on the rate and direction of spread of the Stanthorpe fire under extreme fire weather conditions.

This project has explored gaps in knowledge and understanding of the processes at play during these unusual events by using the Bureau{\textquoteright}s ACCESS-Fire model to examine the local three-dimensional interactions between the fires and the atmosphere. The learnings from this project may be applied to shape future fire weather products and services.

Method

Based on discussions with our partners in fire agencies, together with documents (including photographs and video) and information on fire spread, fuel types and fuel moisture and atypical fire behaviour, we have run a series of simulations and prepared case study chapters for each of the five fires.

The ACCESS-Fire model was initialised using information provided by fire agencies on ignition location or fire line perimeter and fuel type and availability. Several simulations were conducted for each of the fires, with a focus on different time periods of interest and using updated fire polygon boundaries based on available line scan imagery.

The model configuration does not permit the simulations to account for suppression activities by fire agencies, changes in fuel types on the urban interface, or the impact of roads or other fire breaks in reducing the rate of spread of the fire. Another limitation is that the simulations are a single realisation, when in reality, consideration of forecast uncertainty (for example through running an ensemble scheme) would capture a range of potential outcomes.\ 

Learnings from the case studies reinforce and refine some previous learnings from historical fire events and uncover some new insights into the processes driving the periods of unusual fire behaviour that were observed during the 2019/20 season.

Key findings

The case study analyses have provided valuable insights into meteorological aspects of observed extreme fire behaviour during the 2019/20 summer. Key findings for each of the five case studies are included in the individual chapters for each fire and a synthesis is provided here.\ 

The ACCESS-Fire simulations run at 300 m spatial resolution show that some of the most dangerous effects of the fires, in particular damaging and destructive winds, are fire driven and therefore very localised at a much finer scale than current fire weather products.

The depth, elevation and structure of low-level jets over topography was a critical driver of overnight fire activity.\  Given that these jets are driven by larger scale processes (typically synoptic scale), there is an opportunity to develop new tools based on numerical weather prediction output that highlight the location and intensity of these features. Such tools would provide additional information for meteorologists and FBANs on the strength and height of representative winds for input to two-dimensional fire spread models and could be used to alert fire managers to the risk of atypical fire spread in the overnight period.

A key theme that emerged from the case studies and discussions with stakeholders was the consistent occurrence of heatwaves and their influence on boundary layer structure overnight and on inhibiting fuel moisture recovery during the overnight period. Further research quantifying the effects of overnight heatwaves is required to appropriately plan for the increased risk to communities and fire crews in a changing climate, as the frequency of elevated overnight temperatures has increased over the last few decades and is projected to increase further (along with other factors influencing fire activity).\ \ 

Deep moist pyroconvection producing pyrocumulus (pyroCu) or pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds was a feature of the 2019-20 fire season and a record number of sustained outbreaks of pyroCbs occurred.\  However, the five fires examined here were not all associated with pyroCb, highlighting that it is not the sole weather phenomenon associated with extreme fire behaviour. In particular, no lightning was detected within the Green Valley Talmalmo fire (that subsequently became the Corryong fire when it burned into Victoria) as it burned through Green Valley, which shows that dangerous tornado-strength fire-generated winds can occur without pyroCb.

The simulations produced fire-generated extreme winds associated with both rotation and straight-line flow, which present a serious hazard. ACCESS-Fire simulated rotating winds in the updraft of the Green Valley Talmalmo/Corryong fire. More work is required to understand the mechanisms for these, they are likely related to the high intensity of the fire, coupled with topographic influences.

Spot fires were an important component in the observed rate of spread, particularly in the forest fires overnight. The extremely dry, drought-affected fuel beds meant that the ignition efficiency of spot fires was enhanced compared to an average season. Inclusion of a spotting parameterisation in ACCESS-Fire would accelerate the forwards fire spread and improve validation of the simulated fire perimeters.\ 

Coastal processes were evident in the simulations of the Kangaroo Island and Yanchep fires. Localised wind effects in the simulations showed interactions between the fire and maritime airmass including sea breeze circulations can modify the updrafts associated with the fire as well as produce rapid transitions in fire intensity around a fire perimeter. Cooler moister air associated with a maritime airmass may not necessarily reduce fire intensity, depending on its depth and penetration inland.

Utilisation - where to from here?

The high level of engagement in this work from a range of stakeholders has demonstrated the value of this research and the appetite for operational application.\ 

The learnings from this work should be incorporated into training packages tailored for fire meteorologists and FBANs that describe characteristics of the local meteorological environment favourable for extreme fire behaviour. Such training will complement other current research and training on fire behaviour aspects such as spotting and potential for pyroCb.

This work, which has been conducted in close collaboration with partners in fire agencies, has demonstrated that a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms driving fire behaviour requires a multidisciplinary approach. Similarly, the successful application of fire behaviour and meteorology knowledge in operations requires locally connected specialised expertise, combined with tailored modelling tools to inform objective, evidence-based decisions.

The insights gathered from these five case studies have further demonstrated the value of this high resolution coupled modelling approach. In order to progress ACCESS-Fire to an effective operational tool, more robust testing of the model is required, in addition to the more subjective assessments that have been made through the case study work. This would include technical testing, additional sensitivity testing and routine verification.

This project has demonstrated that the Bureau{\textquoteright}s technology and simulation capability, scientific expertise and established relationships with fire agencies can meet the Australian community{\textquoteright}s need to understand the drivers of fire behaviour during the 2019-20 fire season. In doing so, we have further developed and validated our modelling systems and made progress towards their future operational use.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, black summer, coupled, fire-atmosphere, simulations}, issn = {705}, author = {Mika Peace and Barry Hanstrum and Jesse Greenslade and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and Abhik Santra and Jeffrey Kepert and Paul Fox-Hughes and Harvey Ye and Tasfia Shermin and Jeffrey Jones} } @article {bnh-8190, title = {Soil and fuel moisture precursors of fire activity during the 2019-20 fire season, in comparison to previous seasons - Black Summer final report}, number = {686}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Australia experienced unprecedented bushfires during the 2019-20 fire season. Millions of hectares were burned, almost 3,000 homes were destroyed, there were 26 fatalities, and communities were exposed to smoke for extended periods.\  Low soil and vegetation moisture content due to antecedent dry conditions were a key driver of fire activity.

This report extends the work in two Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects to examine the 2019-20 fire season:

The national spatial datasets produced by these projects are consistent and regularly updated, separately examining soil and vegetation moisture variability, as both quantities influence fuel availability and therefore fire behaviour.

This project explores the overlaps between these data sets, as well as comparing other available data (including the Australian Landscape Water Balance) to identify atmospheric, soil and fuel moisture characteristics that contributed to fire risk during Black Summer.

Spatially coherent historical and regularly updated soil and fuel moisture datasets are critically important to fire managers so that an accurate, quantifiable assessment of potential fire activity in the landscape can be made, and this can be benchmarked against historical conditions. This information is crucial to making accurate assessments of risk and identifying situations that fall outside of historical records. One of the valuable aspects of JASMIN is that it can also be used in a predictive way and is therefore useful in anticipating soil moisture and therefore fire risk into the future in a quantitative manner on weather (short-term) and seasonal timescales. Research work in the {\textquoteright}Land Dryness{\textquoteright} project also demonstrated the capacity of soil moisture to predict future vegetation moisture content and thus more directly anticipate fire potential.

This project examines the interaction of atmospheric parameters with soil and fuel moisture content over scales of days, weeks to months, and years. Such an integration has not been undertaken previously.\ Consideration of each of these timeframes is important when making accurate assessments of fire risk. The interaction between them is also critical, as a compounding of the individual processes at the different scales occurs and this was seen in the cumulative effects of antecedent dry years, low winter rainfall and heatwaves during the Black Summer.\ 

This project examined six fire events that were nominated for investigation by the relevant jurisdictions. The fires are:

The scope of the project included examining the following:

Key findings of the project include:\ 

The findings confirm impressions of fire practitioners regarding the extremity of conditions antecedent to the 2019-20 fire season. Importantly, the datasets used in the project present a measurable and spatially coherent approach to estimating fire risk from observed and modelled soil and fuel moisture. Operational application of the datasets and approaches used here will assist in producing accurate soil and vegetation moisture forecasts for prediction of fire risk in the future.

Some immediate benefits for fire managers of this work include:

Each of the meteorological and moisture variables investigated in this study contributed useful information to an understanding of increased fire risk at each site during the 2019-20 Australian summer. Fuel moisture content provided perhaps the most immediate indicator of present fire risk. Soil moisture content permitted an assessment of future changes in fuel moisture content. Both of these integrated changes in meteorological parameters. As such, the meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric moisture represented by vapour pressure) contributed an understanding of why soil and fuel moisture changed in the ways that they did and offered information on how they would change in the future. Monitoring these quantities can help fire and land managers understand how and why fire risk changes across a landscape.\ 

Future work

This project was conducted over a short time period with one objective being to establish a pathway for future research and operational application.

The following opportunities for future research with likely operational benefits have been identified:

In summary, better understanding and spatial mapping of the influence of atmospheric, soil and fuel moisture will assist fire and land managers predict fire risk, which is critical for strategic and tactical planning. Many of the recommendations could be inclusions to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), and therefore of immediate benefit to fire and land managers following the introduction of the AFDRS to operational use over the next two fire seasons.

}, keywords = {black summer, Fire, fire activity, fuel, moisture, precursors, soil}, issn = {686}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Marta Yebra and Shukhrat Shokirov and Vinod Kumar and Dowdy, Andrew J and Pandora Hope and Mika Peace and Sugata Narsey and Francois Delage and Huqiang Zhang} } @article {bnh-7509, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: ACCESS-Fire {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {630}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has been on several aspects:

  1. ACCESS-Fire has been installed on NCI and substantial investment has been made in testing and developing the model
  2. A meteorological case study of the Waroona fire has been published, which generated outreach activities across numerous agencies and jurisdictions.
  3. ACCESS-Fire has been run on two fires: the Waroona fire in WA and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW. A draft of the results of the Waroona simulations has been prepared and analysis and manuscript outline of the Sir Ivan simulations is well underway.
  4. Operational support was requested by fire agencies and the Bureau during high-impact events during the 2019-20 fire season. Support was provided in CFS and SES in SA, RFS in NSW and QFES in QLD during the protracted fire campaigns.
  5. A draft of the paper {\textquoteleft}Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright} has been prepared.

The project has continued to participate strongly in outreach activities, including media engagement through extended radio interviews and collaboration on print and online news articles.\  Conference presentations, high level training presentations and panel participation on topics including fire science, High Performance Computing, STEM careers and Women in Leadership have been attended.

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has repeatedly applied that knowledge in critical focus during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications. \ However, it demonstrates successful realization of the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The capability is recognized and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau; value that is evidenced by the repeated requests to provide high-level fire and meteorological interpretation inside operations.\ 

We therefore thank BNHCRC for their understanding in allowing flexible deadlines and repeatedly negotiating project timelines and deliverables, as this flexibility to shifting priorities has enabled the project team to provide operational support when it was needed.

Our focus for the remainder of the project is to complete advanced drafts of the papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature and expand the body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies. \ We will also share the results with a range of audiences through three online presentations and recordings during which we intend to develop presenting experience in more junior members of the project team.

These objectives may be challenging, due to the need to work from home during the Coronavirus pandemic and the need to be flexible with plans.

We are confident that we will bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge, analysis techniques and software that can benefit the field of meteorology and fire prediction and the Australian community into the future.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {630}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-7785, title = {Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire prediction and meteorological products provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian fire agencies}, journal = {Atmosphere}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, chapter = {1380}, abstract = {

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are simulators that integrate a fire component and an atmospheric component, with the objective of capturing interactions between the fire and atmosphere. As a fire releases energy in the combustion process, the surrounding atmosphere adjusts in response to the energy fluxes; coupled fire-atmosphere (CFA) models aim to resolve the processes through which these adjustments occur. Several CFA models have been developed internationally, mostly by meteorological institutions and primarily for use as a research tool. Research studies have provided valuable insights into some of the atmospheric processes surrounding a fire. The potential to run CFA models in real time is currently limited due to the intensive computational requirements. In addition, there is a need for systematic verification to establish their accuracy and the appropriate circumstances for their use. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing relevant and accurate meteorological information to Australian fire agencies to inform decisions for the protection of life and property and to support hazard management activities. The inclusion of temporally and spatially detailed meteorological fields that adjust in response to the energy released by a fire is seen as a component in developing fire prediction systems that capture some of the most impactful fire and weather behavior. The Bureau{\textquoteright}s ten-year research and development plan includes a commitment to developing CFA models, with the objective of providing enhanced services to Australian fire agencies. This paper discusses the operational use of fire predictions and simulators, learnings from CFA models and potential future directions for the Bureau in using CFA models to support fire prediction activities.

}, keywords = {coupled fire-atmosphere, Fire, meteorology, modeling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121380}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/12/1380}, author = {Mika Peace and Joseph Charney and John Bally} } @conference {bnh-6410, title = {ACCESS-Fire: coupled fire-atmosphere modelling}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Coupled models are a class of fire prediction models that integrate a fire component with an atmospheric component, to examine how the energy released by a fire modifies the surrounding atmosphere. Coupled models can resolve complex interactions between the fire, topography and atmosphere, which subsequently manifest on fire behaviour. Results from simulations promote understanding of the driving processes in dynamic fire events. This can inform development of predictive tools that may be used to anticipate extreme fire behaviour and mitigate against the impacts of significant fires.

Globally, several coupled models have been developed; mostly by meteorological institutions for application in a research capacity. They can be broadly separated as taking either physical or empirical modelling approaches. We are running ACCESS-Fire; an empirical coupled model. It links the research version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to a set of empirically derived fire spread equations. In this presentation we will describe the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS Fire and report on progress on simulations of recent significant fire events.

In Australia and overseas, the imperative for accurate, flexible and timely predictions for prescribed (fuel reduction) burns and bushfires will only increase. Incorporating complex, dynamical meteorological fields is a critical component in building fire prediction systems that can resolve some of the most destructive elements of fire behaviour. Although coupled fire-atmosphere models are currently limited in producing timely operational output due to computational requirements, these restrictions will diminish as technology capabilities continue to increase.

}, keywords = {coupled models, Fire behaviour, fire-atmosphere, Forecasting, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @article {bnh-5775, title = {Coupled fire atmosphere modelling annual report 2018-2019}, number = {501}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project goal is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned project outcomes include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past three years has been on several fronts; 1) publication of a case study of the Waroona fire and related outreach activities 2) implementing, developing and testing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire 3) operational support during high-impact events and 4) draft of the paper {\textquoteright} Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright}.

}, keywords = {bushfire prediction, coupled-fire, fire behavour. fire impacts, modelling}, issn = {501}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @conference {bnh-6398, title = {Science in operations: QFES response to the 2018 Queensland fires}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In late November 2018, Queensland experienced an unprecedented fire event, with more than 1,000 bushfires burning across the state. Fire weather conditions peaked on Wednesday 28 November, with {\textquoteright}Catastrophic{\textquoteright} fire danger observed at Rockhampton Airport for over three hours. Over 1 million hectares of land were burnt, 479 post-fire damage assessments were completed, with nine homes destroyed and a further eight damaged .Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) requested national resources to support both tactical firefighting and operational roles. In anticipation of forecast conditions on 28 November, QFES Manager of Predictive Services, Fire Behaviour Analyst (FBAN) Andrew Sturgess requested Bureau of Meteorologist (BoM) meteorologist and Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) researcher Mika Peace provide support to the State Operations Centre FBAN team. In this paper, we share our personal experiences and reflections as well as those of the FBAN team. In summary, we consider how the Queensland learnings may inform future events. Challenges include resourcing to develop teams with the appropriate capabilities and the ability to identify extreme conditions in advance.

}, keywords = {Fire weather, multidisciplinary, operations}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Andrew Sturgess and Mika Peace} } @conference {bnh-4766, title = {Simulations of the waroona fire with the access-fire coupled fire atmosphere model}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model has been coupled to a fire spread prediction model called ACCESS-Fire (Monash and Melbourne universities, publication in preparation). The ACCESS-Fire model presents a coupled fire-atmosphere modelling capability that is linked to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s operational weather forecasting system.\ 


The fire spread code in ACCESS-Fire is implemented by a level set solver and includes several fire spread models, including options for Rothermel, McArthur and CSIRO forest and grassland. It uses high-resolution topography and detailed fuel maps can be included as available. The sensible and latent heat energy fluxes from the fire are passed back to the atmospheric code through the land-surface scheme JULES. The fire model has been built into the ACCESS high-resolution nested suite using an advanced graphical user and scheduler interface.

ACCESS-Fire simulations have been run on the Waroona fire, which burnt over 68,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. During the first two days of the fire, there were four episodes of extreme fire behaviour. Two separate pyrocumulonimbus events developed and two evening ember storms occurred. The fire behaviour at the Waroona fire was driven by three dimensional fire-atmosphere interactions, and such processes can be examined using a coupled fire-atmosphere model.

This paper will describe key features of the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESSFire and present results from simulations of the Waroona fire. Features of the simulations include fire-modified winds in the environmental flow, dynamic plume effects near steep topography and exploration of pyrocumulonimbus processes.

}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @article {bnh-4204, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling project: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {307}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The goal of the project is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes by running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model.\  Planned outcomes of the project include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of a coupled model on the national computing infrastructure and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

Weather forecasting and fire prediction are similar in that skilled practitioners of both rely on a combination of detailed scientific knowledge and objective analysis, juxtaposed with pattern recognition that draws on past experience and a mental inventory of previous events.\ \  By preparing detailed case studies and coupled simulations of events where unexpected or unusual fire-atmosphere interactions occurred, we contribute to both the scientific understanding for fire{\textendash}atmosphere interactions and the knowledge base of operational meteorologists and fire analysts.

The project started in March 2016, and work for the first year and a quarter has been on two main fronts; a case study of the Waroona fire and implementing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

The Waroona fire in Western Australia in January 2016 was selected as the first case study. It was a complex event, with \ significant impacts including the destruction of the town of Yarloop. A detailed paper on the Waroona fire has been prepared and the manuscript submitted to the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems and Science (JSHESS). The paper is expected to be published by late 2017. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between Department of Parks and Wildlife, WA and research and operational representatives from the Bureau of Meteorology. The work has been presented at a number of forums and has been accepted for oral presentation at two major conferences in late 2017.

Progress with the coupled model ACCESS-Fire (ACCESS is the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator) has been slower than anticipated, but significant headway has been made. ACCESS high resolution nested suites are now running on the project space on the National Computing Infrastructure. Importantly, the framework is more generic than the original code and can be easily re-configured to relocate and run for a new event anywhere in Australia. The nested suites are now running successfully in the advanced graphical user interface "Rose-Cylc" which will receive ongoing support and development from the UK Met Office. The fire code has been implemented on the JULES land-surface scheme and final testing is in progress.

}, issn = {307}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace and Harvey Ye} } @conference {bnh-3904, title = {Lessons learned from a multidisciplinary investigation into the Waroona fire}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Waroona fire burnt over 68,000 ha and destroyed more than 160 homes in southwest Western Australia in January 2016.\ \  This conference paper is an abbreviated and less technical version of a longer case study that has been submitted to the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (Peace et al., 2017). More detail and supporting analysis is contained in the JSHESS version and interested readers are directed there.

Our investigation revealed processes that contributed to four episodes of extreme fire behaviour and the findings are highly relevant to other fires where extreme fire behaviour may develop. This study draws on two reports that highlight the difference between observed FDI{\textquoteright}s and fire activity at Waroona (Bureau of Meteorology, 2016 and McCaw et al., 2016).

There were two pyroCb events; both were associated with anomalously fast fire spread in the prevailing winds; one ignited new fires downwind and the other was against normal diurnal timing. Two evening ember storms occurred; the first impacted the town of Waroona and on the second evening, there were two fatalities when the fire made an unexpected run and produced a destructive ember storm over the town of Yarloop.

}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Lachlan W. McCaw and Burrows, N.D. and Bradley Santos and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-5070, title = {Meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour during the Waroona bushfire, Western Australia, January 2016}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science}, volume = {67}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {79-106}, chapter = {79}, abstract = {

The Waroona bushfire burnt 69,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. During the first two days of the fire, there were two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events and two destructive evening fire runs. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. This case study examines in detail the links between the meteorological observations and the fire behaviour reconstruction.

The first pyroCb developed on Wednesday 6 January 2016, when the fire made an unexpectedly fast run in light prevailing winds. The pyroCb produced lightning strikes that ignited a new fire downwind of the main head fire. A second pyroCb developed on Thursday morning, against normal diurnal thunderstorm trends. Similar to the previous evening, the fire spread faster than expected, given the near-surface meteorological conditions.

On both evenings there were destructive ember storms over the towns of Waroona (Wednesday) and Yarloop (Thursday). Examination of the meteorological observations has linked these ember showers to the onset of downslope winds, locally known as {\textquoteright}scarp winds{\textquoteright}. As downslope winds are associated with strong localised turbulence, they provide a mechanism for transport of large numbers of firebrands.

The periods of extreme fire behaviour at Waroona were against normal diurnal expectations and did not coincide with the highest observed Fire Danger Index (FDI) values, which occurred at around 1600 LT. This study links both pyroCb events to accelerated fire spread, which presents a hazard to firefighters that is not accounted for in traditional, surface based methods of fire prediction. Downslope winds similar to those that impacted the Waroona fire occur at many locations. They provide a highly localised mechanism for destructive evening ember showers.

This investigation into the Waroona fire describes the potential impacts of fireatmosphere feedback processes. Consequently, it highlights the need for predictive methods and tools that anticipate fire behaviour which is not steady-state. Planned simulations using a coupled fire-atmosphere model will allow further insights into features of this case study.

}, doi = {10.22499/3.6702.002}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2017/Peace.pdf}, author = {Mika Peace and Lachlan W. McCaw and Bradley Santos and Jeffrey Kepert and Burrows, N.D. and Robert Fawcett} } @article {bnh-2920, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {179}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The goal of the project is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes by running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned outcomes of the project include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of a coupled model on the national computing infrastructure and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.\ Weather forecasting and fire prediction are similar in that skilled practitioners of both rely on a combination of detailed scientific knowledge and objective analysis, juxtaposed with pattern recognition that draws on past experience and a mental inventory of previous events. By preparing detailed case studies and coupled simulations of events in which unexpected or unusual fire-atmosphere interactions occurred, we contribute to both the scientific understanding for fire{\textendash}atmosphere interactions and the knowledge base of operational meteorologists and fire analysts.

The project has been staffed for just four months, and is commencing work on two main fronts. The first of these is implementing the coupled model ACCESS-Fire (ACCESS is the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator). We have obtained the source code from Monash University and are preparing for installation and testing. Progress has been slowed a little by a major change in the ACCESS model infrastructure, which has mean that some necessary components for very high resolution simulation are not yet available. We attended an ACCESS training workshop to ensure that we have the necessary skills to properly run the model.

After extensive consultation with end users, we have identified the Waroona fire in Western Australia (WA) in January 2016 as our first case study. This was a significant and complex event, with the impacts including the destruction of the town of Yarloop. We have made good progress on collecting and analysing data and preparing an initial draft report that describes the meteorology and fire activity during the first two days of this event, in collaboration with Western Australian fire scientists. We have also prepared an initial simulation of the event, without fire coupling

}, issn = {179}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace} } @article {bnh-2675, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of the Rocky River fire using WRF-SFIRE}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, volume = {55}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, abstract = {

The coupled atmosphere-fire behaviour model WRF-SFIRE has been used to simulate a fire where extreme fire behaviour was observed. Tall flames and a dense convective smoke column were features of the fire as it burnt rapidly up the Rocky River gully on Kangaroo Island, South Australia. WRF-SFIRE simulations of the event show a number of interesting dynamical processes resulting from fire-atmosphere feedback including that: fire spread was sensitive to small changes in mean wind direction; fire perimeter was affected by wind convergence resulting from interactions between the fire, atmosphere and local topography; and the fire plume mixed high momentum air from above a strong subsidence inversion. At one-minute intervals, output from the simulations showed fire spread exhibiting fast and slow pulses. These pulses occurred coincident with the passage of mesoscale convective (Rayleigh-B{\`e}nard) cells in the planetary boundary layer. Simulations show that feedback between the fire and atmosphere may have contributed to the observed extreme fire behaviour. The findings raise questions as to the appropriate information to include in meteorological forecasts for fires as well as future use of coupled and uncoupled fire simulation models in both operational and research settings.

}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0157.1}, author = {Mika Peace and Trent Mattner and Graham A. Mills and Jeffrey Kepert and Lachlan W. McCaw} } @article {bnh-3205, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus forecasting: needs and issues}, number = {239}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus events can substantially change the weather characteristics in the vicinity of fires, which may drastically affect fire behaviour.\  This is of very considerable concern for fire managers, and therefore for fire weather forecasters.\  In particular, the wind around a fire can become very erratic in the presence of pyroCb, with downburst winds a greater risk than at other times.\  Lightning from pyroCb can ignite additional fires, and in extreme cases pyroCb may generate tornadoes (such as occurred during the 2003 Canberra fire).

Forecasters and fire managers need to be aware of the possibility of pyroCb development to allow for the chance of such erratic fire behaviour.\  The environments that support pyroCb development, then, are an important topic of study for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, and the results of this research project will be of great interest to all involved in the planning for and management of dangerous wildfires.

}, issn = {239}, author = {KJ Tory and Mika Peace and W. Thurston} } @article {bnh-2397, title = {Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Modelling}, year = {2015}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace} } @conference {bnh-2085, title = {The Sydney 2014 forecast demonstration project - a step from research to operations - non peer reviewed extended abstract}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Michael Foley and Mika Peace and Deryn Griffiths and James Sofra and Jeffrey Kepert} } @proceedings {BF-4353, title = {Fire-atmosphere coupled numerical simulations show a fire changes the local meteorology}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/fire-atmosphere-coupled-numerical-simulations-show-fire-changes-local-mete}, author = {Mika Peace and Trent Mattner and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-4283, title = {Meteorological dynamics in a fire environment; a case study of the Layman prescribed burn in Western Australia}, journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal}, volume = {62}, year = {2012}, month = {09/2012}, pages = {127-142}, chapter = {127}, abstract = {From time to time, bushfires exhibit fire behaviour that was never anticipated in the prevailing environmental conditions. The Layman fuel-reduction burn, in scenic southwest Western Australia, was one such fire. The burn was ignited in mid-October 2010 in benign weather conditions. Late morning on the day following ignition, fire activity escalated rapidly; a convection column developed with a deep vertical circulation that extended from the surface to a height of 4 km. The ensuing intense fire with tall flames caused extensive crown scorch and defoliation, and resulted in concerns about the safety of rural communities adjoining the planned burn. The observations and meteorological model data indicate that the intense fire activity was driven by a combination of meteorological processes not routinely assessed in fire environments. Low-level sea breeze convergence in the wind field, combined with potential instability in the presence of FireCAPE, entrainment of dry air from aloft desiccating already climatologically dry fuels and vertical circulation on a frontal change were all present. The dramatic development of the Layman burn shows how meteorological processes not currently embedded in fire science may produce an environment conducive to intense fire activity. The ways in which fire managers might incorporate innovative meteorological products identified in this paper in order to mitigate against such events in the future are discussed.}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2012/peace.pdf}, author = {Mika Peace and Lachlan W. McCaw and Graham A. Mills} }