@article {BF-2397,
	title = {Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {18},
	year = {2009},
	month = {2009},
	pages = {932},
	abstract = {The probability of large-fire (>=1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20{\textendash}84\% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF08133},
	author = {Ross Bradstock and Cohn, J. S. and Gill, A. Malcolm and Bedward, M. and Chris Lucas}
}
@article {BF-2365,
	title = {Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {16},
	year = {2007},
	month = {2007},
	pages = {540},
	abstract = {The area burnt each summer in Tasmania is related to coincident (summer) climate variables, especially the total summer rainfall. The relationship with temperature is weaker and largely reflects the relationship between rainfall and temperature. As the El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation is known to be related to Australian rainfall and simple indices of this phenomenon form the basis of the operational seasonal climate forecast scheme used in Australia, it is not surprising that indices of the El Ni{\~n}o{\textendash}Southern Oscillation can also, it appears, provide a potentially useful forecast system for Tasmanian bushfire extent. In particular, sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea during winter are correlated with the area burnt in the following summer. The effect of summer rainfall on the area burnt each year suggests that global warming may not simply lead to increased burning, contrasting with the situation in other parts of the globe. A weak, long-term decline in area burnt appears to be due to a weak increase in summer rainfall.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF06125},
	author = {Nicholls, N and Chris Lucas}
}
@article {BF-1027,
	title = {Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability},
	volume = {16},
	year = {2007},
	month = {10/31/2007},
	pages = {540-546},
	author = {Nicholls, N and Chris Lucas}
}
@article {BF-1034,
	title = {Northern Australian Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Workshop - 2007},
	year = {2007},
	month = {7/03/2007},
	pages = {25pp},
	institution = {Bushfire CRC},
	url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-nth-aust-07-08.pdf},
	author = {Chris Lucas and Murphy, Brett P. and Graham A. Mills}
}
@article {BF-1032,
	title = {An examination of dewpoint biases introduced by different instrumentation},
	volume = {4},
	year = {2006},
	month = {3/18/2006},
	pages = {16-26},
	url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchletter/reslett_04/reslett_04.pdf},
	author = {Chris Lucas}
}
@article {BF-1036,
	title = {Climate change impacts on fire-weather in southeast Australia},
	year = {2005},
	month = {12/22/2005},
	pages = {88pp},
	institution = {CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research },
	type = {Client Report},
	url = {http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessykj_2005b.pdf},
	author = {Hennessey, K and Chris Lucas and Nicholls, N and Bathols, J and Suppiah, R and Ricketts, J}
}
