@conference {bnh-1557, title = {Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

Knowledge of landscape dryness is critical for the management and warning of fires, floods, heatwaves and landslips. This project will address fundamental limitations in our ability to prepare for these events. Currently landscape dryness is estimated using simplified soil moisture accounting systems developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. Similarly, flood prediction, runoff potential and water catchment/dam management also are not using the best available science and technology.
This paper describes research to be carried out by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre that will examine the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. The new information will be calibrated for use within existing fire and flood forecasting systems.
An inter-comparison will be performed of the traditional Keetch-Byram Drought Index and Soil Dryness Index with weather prediction models, satellite measurements, ground based measurements, and rainfall-runoff models. Soil moisture from weather prediction and reanalysis will be calibrated for the calculation of a high resolution historical dataset of KBDI and SDI. These datasets will be a valuable resource for researchers working on fire climatologies across Australia. The outputs of this project will improve Australia{\textquoteright}s ability to manage multiple hazard types and create a more resilient community, by developing a state of the art, world{\textquoteright}s best practice in soil moisture analysis that underpins flood, fire and heatwave forecasting.
Longer term work will explore the use of multi-model predictions and data assimilation to forecast soil dryness indices for operational application to fire, flood and heat wave hazards. The vegetation and soil parameterisations in current land surface models will be developed to match Australian conditions.

}, author = {Imtiaz Dharssi and Vinod Kumar and Yeo, Claire and John Bally and Jeffrey Kepert} } @conference {bnh-2203, title = {Modelling the Fire Weather of the Coonabarabran Fire of 13 January 2013}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, abstract = {

We will exhibit state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations and radar imagery for Sunday 13 January 2013, with a specific focus on the region of the Coonabarabran fire which started at around 1600 Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on 12 January in the Warrumbungle National Park. The simulations show a complicated range of meteorology including weather features that would affect fire behaviour critical for fire-fighter safety.

Features such as convection outflow gust fronts are displayed in the simulations in the north-westerly wind ahead of the main wind change, together with boundary-layer rolls, and sea-breeze-like wind changes proceeding inland from the coast. In addition, small-scale vortices are modelled on the main change: these lead to hazardous local spikes in the modelled Forest Fire Danger Index. Exceptionally strong north/south temperature gradients were observed over inland New South Wales on the Sunday and these are also seen in the simulations.

Sunday 13 January brought difficult conditions for fire fighting. When the fire was declared {\textquotedblleft}out{\textquotedblright} on 24 January, it had burnt an area of 55,210 ha west of Coonabarabran, 53 homes, 131 other buildings and 95\% of the Warrumbungle National Park.

The simulation has been performed using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), and involves a sequence of nested limited area model runs embedded in the ACCESS global model run, with a finest grid spacing of 550 m. Our analysis will focus on how well the simulations capture the meteorological factors that promote extreme fire behaviour. The ACCESS model is used at the Bureau of Meteorology for operational numerical weather prediction, but is used here in research mode at resolutions much finer than current operational ones.

}, author = {Robert Fawcett and Yeo, Claire and W. Thurston and Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-1359, title = {Fire Danger Indices: Current Limitations and a Pathway to Better Indices}, number = {007}, year = {2014}, month = {12/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Fire danger ratings in Australia currently rely heavily on McArthur{\textquoteright}s indices for forests and grasslands. Advances in fire and in meteorological science means that these indices do not adequately reflect current knowledge or recent technological advances. We now have the capability to provide information on fire danger at a much greater spatial and temporal resolution than previously, but do not fully utilise it. The indices are used for a wider range of purposes than originally envisaged, and growing societal expectations and changes in communication technology provide both the impetus and opportunity for a more detailed and more accurate service.

This report sets the agenda for fire danger policy and research into operations.

}, issn = {007}, author = {Yeo, Claire and Jeffrey Kepert and Hicks, Robin} }