@article {BF-4286,
	title = {Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {266},
	year = {2013},
	month = {09/2013},
	pages = {172-186},
	chapter = {172},
	abstract = {An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide future land management and planning. However, quantification of landscape change from vegetation development and disturbance effects is difficult because of the large space and long time scales involved. Comparative simulation modeling experiments, using a suite of models to simulate a set of scenarios, can provide a platform for investigating landscape change over more ecologically appropriate time and space scales that control vegetation and disturbance. We implemented a multifactorial simulation experiment using five landscape fire succession models to explore the role of fire and vegetation development under various climates on a neutral landscape. The simulation experiment had four factors with two or three treatments each: (1) fire (fire and no fire), (2) succession (dynamic and static succession), (3) climate (historical, warm-wet, warm-dry), and (4) weather (constant, variable). We found that, under historical climates, succession changed more area annually than fire by factors of 1.2 to 34, but one model simulated more landscape change from fire (factor of 0.1). However, we also found that fire becomes more important in warmer future climates with factors decreasing to below zero for most models. We also found that there were few differences in simulation results between weather scenarios with low or high variability. Results from this study show that there will be a shift from vegetation processes that control today{\textquoteright}s landscape dynamics to fire processes under future warmer and drier climates, and this shift means that detailed representations of both succession and fire should be incorporated into models to realistically simulate interactions between disturbance and vegetation.},
	keywords = {Landscape dynamics, Landscape ecology, Model comparison, Simulation modeling, Succession, wildland fire},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.020},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001300313X},
	author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Parsons, Russell A. and Davies, Ian D. and Karen J. King and Li, Chao and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-3786,
	title = {Implications of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 for grassland fire in south-east Australia: insights using the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11103.htm},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Karen J. King and Gill, A. Malcolm and Moore, AD}
}
@article {BF-2382,
	title = {The relative importance of fine-scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south-west Tasmania, Australia},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {17},
	year = {2008},
	month = {2008},
	pages = {421},
	abstract = {In many landscapes, an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia, there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. A recent study using the process-based computer simulation model FIRESCAPE-SWTAS predicted several relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south-west Tasmania, Australia. The present study extended this investigation to additionally explore the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation. Simulation results suggest that treatment level had the greatest influence on modifying fire effects, whereas treatment unit size had the least effect. The model predicted that all three parameters interacted to determine the mean annual area burnt by unplanned fires. In fire-intolerant vegetation, treatment unit size did not influence the incidence of unplanned fires and the area burnt by unplanned fires in these communities. Where significant differences were evident, fire risk was reduced by higher treatment levels, deterministic spatial patterns of burning units, and smaller burning unit sizes.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF07052},
	author = {Karen J. King and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Chapman, Joanne and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.}
}
@article {BF-2335,
	title = {Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {15},
	year = {2006},
	month = {2006},
	pages = {527},
	abstract = {Computer simulation modelling provides a useful approach for determining the trade-offs between the extent of prescribed burning and the long-term impacts of unplanned fires on management values. In the present study, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, a process-based fire regime and vegetation dynamics model, was used in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania, Australia, to investigate the implications of different prescribed burning treatments on identified management objectives. Treatments included annual prescribed burning of different proportions of the most flammable vegetation community, buttongrass moorlands. Additionally, a proposed strategic burning treatment for this landscape was simulated for comparison with these treatments. Simulations identified the nature of the relationships between the prescribed burn treatment level and the fire size distributions, the mean incidence, and the mean annual areas burnt by unplanned fires, with all three parameters declining with increases in treatment level. The study also indicated that strategically located treatment units were able to enhance the reduction in the fire risk to vegetation species susceptible to fire (fire-intolerant species).},
	doi = {10.1071/WF05076},
	author = {Karen J. King and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Chapman, Joanne and Pyrke, Adrian and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.}
}
