@article {bnh-8356, title = {Empowering Indigenous natural hazards management in northern Australia}, journal = {Ambio}, year = {2022}, month = {06/2022}, abstract = {

Northern Australia is prone to recurring severe natural hazards, especially frequent cyclones, flooding, and extensive wildfires. The region is sparsely populated (<< 0.5 persons km-2), with Indigenous (Aboriginal) residents comprising 14\% of the population, and typically the majority in remote regions. Despite national policy committed to addressing emergency management (EM) in vulnerable Indigenous communities, implementation remains unfunded. We synthesise participatory intercultural research conducted over seven years exploring core challenges, opportunities and potential solutions towards developing effective EM partnerships. Similar EM engagement and empowerment issues face First Nations and local communities in many international settings. In search of solutions, we explore developing effective partnership arrangements between EM agencies and culturally diverse Indigenous communities. Observing that government already provides substantial investment in cultural and natural resource management programmes conducted by over 150 Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) nationally, we demonstrate that expansion of IRG roles to incorporate EM community engagement and service delivery can provide multiple cost-effective community and business development benefits for many remote communities.

}, keywords = {Climate change, indigenous people, Natural disasters, participatory action research, risk management, vulnerable communities}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01743-x}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01743-x}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Glenn James and Alan M. Dhamarrandji and Ted Gondarra and Danny Burton and Bevlyne Sithole and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie and Ricky Archer and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @book {bnh-8323, title = {Making Sense of Natural Disasters: The Learning Vacuum of Bushfire Public Inquiries}, year = {2022}, pages = {135}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

This book examines the ways in which emergency management organizations make sense and learn from natural disasters. Examining recent bushfires in Australia, it demonstrates that whilst public inquiries that follow such disasters can be important for learning and change, they have ultimately created a learning vacuum insofar as their recommendations repeat themselves. This has kept governments and society focused on learning lessons about the past, rather than for the future. Accordingly, this book recommends a new approach to sensemaking and learning focused on prospective planning rather than retrospective recommendations, and where planning for the future is seen as the shared responsibility of the government, society, and the emergency management community in Australia and beyond.

}, keywords = {bushfires public reviews, governance, Natural disasters, organizational learning, public inquiries, risk management}, isbn = {978-3-030-94778-1}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94778-1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-94778-1$\#$about}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @article {bnh-7739, title = {Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia - final project report}, number = {636}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, commencing in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, conservation agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken over the project period in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we have been developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that\  some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) are\  not adequately resourced to achieve this,. The classic model of volunteering does not suit remote significantly disadvantaged Indigenous community members in remote communities. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build local emergency management (EM) capacity, preparedness, resilience and disaster response.

This research has developed\  a suite of case studies. In each case,\  interviews/workshops have been conducted with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg and Yuendumu in Central Australia, Broome, Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land, in Bulukhuduru, Ramingining and Ngukkurr in Arnhem Land, and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria. Main identified issues across the selected remote communities include little engagement of locals, if any, in managing emergency situations around the community, inappropriate placement of EM plans in police stations, lack of resoruces and services in remote communities, broader recognition of IRGs capacity to deliver EM services, and willingness of IRGs to participate in EM services.

Secondly, this research continues the service delivery program of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia. To develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, we provide information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In particular, we include the development of a fire severity map product, not only to inform land management, but to improve Savanna Burning greenhouse gas emissions calculations.

Finally, this report addresses ongoing priorities identified by partner agencies and community stakeholders requiring further action-based research and implementation, especially addressing:

}, keywords = {northern Australia, Planning, remote community, risk management, scenario}, issn = {636}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-6567, title = {Simulation optimisation for natural hazard risk management}, number = {533}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we outline a decision-support framework for natural hazard management that combines the use of simulation and optimisation for exploring what risk reduction measures best achieve management priorities. This framework addressed several needs that practitioners have with regard to risk and adaptation assessment. First, it uses optimisation approaches to screen through and identify those management options that perform best across a number of decision criteria. This is important, as there are a very diverse range of management options which could be combined in an extremely large number of ways to make portfolios of management options and it is difficult to screen through all potential portfolios to shortlist a small number for further consideration. Second, it simulates the effectiveness of management options over long-term planning horizons. This is important, for management options may have long lead-in-times, and/or may have long lifetimes, are not easily/readily changed, and so need to be effective over a broad range of plausible future conditions, which likely include larger populations, increased economic development and climate change. Third, the framework emphasises holistic assessment, wherein the Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) simulates the effect of management options across a number of criteria, therefore allowing practitioners to explore the trade-offs between risk reduction with other community goals, including environmental, social and economic outcomes.


The value of this framework arises from the greater demands that are being placed on planners to effectively manage natural hazard risk, whether from politicians or from the public who have an increasingly reduced appetite for hazard losses. This creates a need for analytic frameworks for exploring how to best manage risk, and this framework addresses this gap.


Through application to a case study, this report shows how the framework is able to increase the effectiveness and efficiency by which IAM can be applied to natural hazard risk management. The role of the optimisation was seen not to be prescriptive, but to enable better exploration of risk management options. The framework was therefore able to provide rich information on the effectiveness of management portfolios by which better risk management plans could be formed.


The case study to which the framework was applied considered coastal flood risk within Greater Adelaide and explored the combinations of zonal exclusion areas along the coast which prevented further development. If unmitigated, coastal risk could increase by 10\% over the next three decades. However, results of the case study application showed that zonal exclusion policies could effectively reduce this growth of coastal risk, however this required excluding further development from 7000 Ha of land along the coast. Saying that, the growth in risk could be limited to 3\% (i.e. a reduction in growth by 60\%), through excluding coastal development from only 1500 Ha.

}, keywords = {natural hazard, optimisation, risk management, simulation}, issn = {533}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Graeme Dandy and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Charles Newland and Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell} } @conference {bnh-6505, title = {Are we future ready? It depends on who you ask }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key problem faced in preparing for future disasters is a problem of imagination. It is a problem embedded in the stories we tell about what we imagine might happen. These stories tend to focus on a {\textquoteleft}bell curve{\textquoteright} distribution of disaster events, combining our own lived experience with the stories of others. This combination of personal experiences and the stories of others forms the basis of our perception of risk and vulnerability. This is a dynamic and ongoing process. The story is never finished, nor is it complete, as we selectively incorporate or reject information depending on its source, content and compatibility with the existing narrative.

The existing narrative for natural hazard management incorporates perceptions of probability; generally, {\textquoteleft}disaster consequences will tend to hover close to the mean and every now and then we will be tested{\textquoteright}. As the volume of hazards grows the narrative is more deeply imbued with concepts of coping and {\textquoteleft}lessons learned{\textquoteright}. If certain narratives are allowed to flourish uncontested within an organisation an ironic consequence can be a failure of imagination and coping. A failure to be future ready.

This paper is a discussion about the extent to which we{\textquoteright}re future ready using the Johari window as a heuristic and reflecting on a case study from Indonesia.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future disasters, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Sutton, S and Paton, Douglas and Burgelt , Petra T. and Ella Meilianda and Saut Sagala} } @conference {bnh-6511, title = {A case study of South Australia{\textquoteright}s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

On September 28, 2016 one of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks recorded in South Australia impacted central and eastern parts of the state. Multiple supercell thunderstorms were embedded in a Quasi-Linear Convective System aligned with a strong cold front that was associated with an intense low-pressure system. The storms produced at least seven tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, large hail and intense rainfall. Transmission lines were brought down in four different locations, which contributed to a state-wide power outage.

Accurate prediction and understanding of tornadoes and other hazards associated with severe thunderstorms is very important, for timely preparation and announcement of warnings. By conducting high-resolution simulations, this study aims to offer a better understanding of the meteorology of the South Australian thunderstorm and tornado outbreak. It also contributes to improving knowledge of how to best predict similar severe weather events, which in turn enables better risk management and preparedness for such events. Updraft
helicity, a severe storm surrogate that indicates the potential for updraft rotation in simulated storms, is used to investigate the ability of the model to predict supercell and tornado likelihood.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {modelling, risk management, Severe Weather, thunderstorm, tornado}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Dragana Zovko-Rajak and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-5418, title = {Challenges for prescribed fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone rangelands {\textendash} the example of the Northern Territory}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Northern Australia comprises by far the most fire-prone-half of a fiery continent, where fire frequencies range from annual in the tropical savannas to periodic very-extensive fire events following above-rainfall conditions in the central Australian rangelands. As illustration of the challenges facing effective fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s 5.7 {\texttimes} 106 km2\ rangelands, we examine the status of contemporary prescribed burning activities in the Northern Territory, a 1.4 {\texttimes} 106 km2, very sparsely settled (0.18 persons km-2) jurisdiction characterised by vast flammable landscapes, few barriers to fire-spread, predominantly anthropogenic ignitions, and limited institutional resources and capacity. Unsurprisingly, prescribed-fire management is shown to be restricted to specific locales. For more effective, landscape-scale fire management, potential solutions include engagement with dispersed remote communities and incorporation of Indigenous Ranger Groups into the fire-management network, and building on the success of savanna-burning greenhouse gas emission projects as an example for incentivising landscape fire and emergency management services generally. Recently, significant steps have been taken towards implementing formal regional fire-management planning processes involving inclusive community-stakeholder engagement, and the setting of clearly defined time-constrained objectives and targets.

}, keywords = {central Australia, Emergency management, fire regime, Indigenous rangers, remote communities, risk management, savannas}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18127}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18127?ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2_27_2019_23_3)\&mc_cid=676faec148\&mc_eid=73e0665bda}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Kamaljit Sangha and Yates, Cameron P. and Mark Gardener} } @conference {bnh-6510, title = {Detecting active fires from space using Himawari-8: a report from the regional New South Wales trial }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Continuous monitoring fires over Australia using Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data (available every 10 minutes) has the potential to change lives.

Active-fire hotspots are routinely available from polar-orbiting satellites such as MODIS and VIIRS (Giglio et al. 2003; Giglio et al. 2016; Schroder et al. 2014) over Australia. Active-fire hotspots from those systems are only available a few times a day, with the specific times dictates by the satellite orbits themselves. With satellite orbits not necessarily concurring with time of maximum fire activity. In late 2015 though, the Japanese Meteorological Agency launched the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite, with full-disk observations (including Australia) available every 10 minutes (Bessho et al. 2016). These frequent observations have the potential to support continuous real-time satellite monitoring of active fires over Australia.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {fire management, fires, monitoring, risk management, Satellite}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Stuart Matthews and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-6337, title = {Exploring ISO31000 Risk Management during Dynamic Fire and Emergency Operations in Western Australia}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Firefighting remains an inherently dangerous occupation with serious injuries and fatalities reported globally. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council adopt ISO31000 as the standard of risk management for all firefighting and mitigation operations. However, previous studies have reported that decisions made by incident controllers during dynamic emergencies are typically reactionary and only partially compliant with the ISO31000 process. This paper describes research using new qualitative and quantitative data that support incident controllers in managing risk during dynamic fire and emergency situations, in accordance with ISO31000. The research was completed through two studies. The first study explored risk attitudes of serving fire service officers through semistructured interviews and in-depth structured surveys. The second study identified the severity of firefighting consequences and likelihood through analysis of Western Australian fire service safety and incident reports between January 1st, 2001 and January 1st, 2015. The overall and conditional probability of specific injuries during the various tasks undertaken during emergency incidents was calculated using Bayesian statistical analysis. The findings indicate that whilst current practices are arguably effective in preventing worst case consequences being realised, improvements in operational risk management can be made in accordance with ISO31000 during emergencies and in pre-incident planning.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighting, probability, risk, risk management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2020021}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/2/21}, author = {Greg Penney} } @article {bnh-5476, title = {Flash flood fatalities in NSW, VIC, ACT and South East QLD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017}, number = {470}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In terms of lives lost, floods are second only to heatwaves (Coates, 1996; Coates et al 2014), and are one of the top three natural hazards in terms of cost and damage caused, disrupting the functioning of businesses and communities due to\ \ \  building\  \ and\  \ infrastructure\  \ damage.\  \ In\  \ terms\  \ of\  \ reducing\  \ human casualties, \ flash \ floods \ pose \ a \ unique \ challenge \ to \ emergency \ responders and emergency management. Consideration must be given to the efficacy of public education campaigns and warnings, the relative risks occupants face inside and outside the dwelling and the behaviour of individuals during flood events.

The current report builds on that carried out by Risk Frontiers for the New South Wales \ State \ Emergency\  Service \ [Haynes \ et \ al, \ 2009], \ which \ examined \ the fatality and injury record for Australian flash flood events from 1950 to 2008. It also continues the work done for the floods component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project, {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright} [see Haynes et al, 2016]. The current research focuses on the circumstances surrounding fatalities resulting from flash flood events in New South Wales (NSW) from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017. To enable comparisons to be made, a few other jurisdictions were examined. The aim is to identify those most at risk and \ any \ trends \ in \ recent \ flash \ flood \ events \ in \ order\  \ to \ inform \ policy development by the NSW SES.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood management, health and safety, risk management}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @conference {bnh-6506, title = {Flood vulnerability functions: detailed vs generalised approach }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flood vulnerability functions for buildings (often called stage-damage functions) relate flood damage to the depth of inundation in the building. These functions are generally used in assessing flood risk and in evaluating cost-effective mitigation strategies for flood risk management. Flood vulnerability models are usually developed for a certain location by following empirical, analytical or heuristic procedures. They can be developed for a representative building type (detailed approach) or representing a mix of building types (generalised approach).

Geoscience Australia (GA) has developed a suite of flood vulnerability functions for a range of building types (detailed approach) that covers residential, commercial, industrial and community building land use types. These functions are best used in detailed micro level studies and are applicable to the highest resolution of building exposure information with flood vulnerability directly attributed to individual buildings.

This paper describes research with the National Flood Risk Advisory Group (NFRAG), the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR), state and local governments and industry to translate detailed vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers undertaking studies under the floodplainspecific management process as outlined in the AIDR Handbook, Managing the Floodplain: A Guide to Best Practice in Flood Risk Management.

This research derives generalised vulnerability functions for a mix of building and land use types. The generalised curves can be utilised at meso or macro level study and are intended to be applied at a resolution of built environment information readily available to floodplain managers.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {emergency management., Floods, land use, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @conference {bnh-6527, title = {Fuels3D: barking up the wrong tree and beyond}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Improvement of the understanding of how fuel characteristics correlate with fire behaviour and severity is critical to the ongoing handling of risk and recovery in fire-prone environments. Current standards and protocols for describing fuel hazard (for example, {\textquoteleft}Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment Guide{\textquoteright}, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment) and post-burn severity (for example, {\textquoteleft}Fire Severity Assessment Guide{\textquoteright}, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment) were written for collection of information in the field. The data collected are largely subjective descriptions of the landscape. The ability of information from these assessment techniques to be adapted to modern risk assessment tools such as fire behavior models, or for the calibration and validation of datasets, is limited. Quantitative data-rich methods of measuring and assessing fuel load and structure are the missing link between the knowledge of land management personnel in the field, and the model drivers and decision makers at organizational level.

Handheld devices with high quality sensors, in the form of offthe-shelf cameras, are increasingly ubiquitous, as is the availability of 3D point cloud data collected from active sensing instruments on terrestrial and aerial platforms. Rapid and comprehensive capture of information by these devices, coupled with the use of computer vision techniques, allows for the 3D description of the surrounding environment to be exploited to provide robust measurement of metrics that can be built into existing fuel hazard assessment frameworks. Providing key metrics as data products rather than a single product enables flexibility across jurisdictions and ecosystem types, and capacity to adapt as end-user requirements change.

The Fuels3D project has created a suite of tools and methods for image capture in the field during fuel hazard assessments. 3D point clouds are generated using computer vision and photogrammetry techniques. From these 3D point clouds, scale is added, and decision rules are programmed to calculate quantifiable surface / near-surface metrics that replicate those
used in current fuel hazard visual assessment guides. Case studies are highlighted here.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {data collection, Fire behaviour, fuel hazard, risk management, technology}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Bryan Hally and Simon Jones} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} } @article {bnh-5542, title = {Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {18 }, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49\% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50\% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.\ 

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood fatalities, risk management, road safety}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, author = {Andrew Gissing and S. Opper and Matalena Tofa and Coates, Lucinda and John McAneney} } @conference {bnh-6524, title = {Intelligent warnings: a twenty-first century approach to encouraging protective action in emergencies}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Victorian approach to the delivery of public information and warnings is robust and leads the country in many respects. Despite this, when at-risk individuals do receive warnings, existing research clearly highlights they are unlikely to immediately act, and instead, will seek out further information and take time to process the information to determine whether any action is required. This verification process may include talking with family, friends, neighbours or colleagues, resulting in a delay before protective action is taken. To counteract this problem and provide communities with as much time as possible to take action, we need to minimise the likelihood of delays infiltrating our decision-making and warnings dissemination process. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation can help us to achieve this.

To investigate this further, a desktop review of existing literature was undertaken, supported by informal discussions and semi-structured interviews with a diverse range of academics, emergency managers and other experts across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and the United States. The discussions and interviews highlighted exciting opportunities to enhance our current approach through the use of AI and automation, which could be particularly helpful in enhancing the effectiveness of warnings for rapid impact emergencies, such as flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. During these types of emergencies, where community consequences are often experienced very rapidly after initial onset of the event, AI and automation can support the tailoring of language and content in warning products according to affected communities and likely consequences, minimise warning issuance delay and maximise the effectiveness of decision-making.

The investigation found these technologies are not a replacement for human decision making, however, if leveraged effectively they will enable us to better understand risk in realtime and reduce the considerable time taken to manually process intelligence and apply our pre-determined triggers and business rules. For the Victorian emergency management sector, these results suggest there is a need to prioritise investment in innovative new approaches to support the dissemination of potentially life-saving public information and warnings, whilst also supporting researchers to further understand human behaviour and decision-making upon receipt of a warning. In summary, this investigation has identified opportunities to better support communities to take protective action in a timely manner, to ensure we achieve our shared vision of safer and more resilient communities.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, protective action, risk management, technology, warning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Riley, Jacob} } @conference {bnh-6532, title = {JASMIN: a high-resolution soil moisture analysis system for fire prediction}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Soil moisture is found to be a key factor that influences fuel moisture content. Consequently, operational forest fire prediction systems typically include soil moisture as one of the inputs for fire behaviour calculations. The soil moisture input to these fire prediction models is usually provided in the form of moisture deficit. There is evidence that the current operational methods used in Australia for fire prediction perform poorly in estimating soil moisture status. A research project was initiated in partnership with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to develop an advanced, state-of-the-art soil moisture analysis for Australia. Consequently, a prototype, high-resolution, land surface modelling-based soil moisture analysis called JULES based Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) has been developed. JASMIN can provide hourly moisture estimates for four soil layers, at a spatial resolution of 5 km.

The present paper will discuss the evaluation of JASMIN carried out against observations from ground-based networks. Among the results, the mean Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation for surface soil moisture across three in-situ networks is found to be between 0.78 and 0.85. We also focus on the research carried out to downscale the JASMIN product from 5 km to 1 km spatial resolution. The downscaling research is motivated by the desirable impact a higher resolution soil moisture product can provide for fire prediction, considering the high spatial variability in soil moisture and fuel moisture. We discuss the application of three downscaling algorithms: two regressionbased methods and one with a theoretical basis. The three methods applied in the present study are based on the information derived from characterizing a two-dimensional surface temperature/vegetation index scatterplot domain obtained from thermal and optical remote sensing observations. We present an overview of the application of each method, along with an evaluation against ground-based soil moisture observations. Evaluation results indicate that the regression methods, in general, fail to capture the observed temporal variability. The theoretically based method, on the other hand, provides a temporal correlation of 0.81 and captures the skill of the parent JASMIN product.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {analysis system, fire prediction, Preparedness, risk management, Soil moisture}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @conference {bnh-6512, title = {The mitigation exercise: a long term mitigation planning process, with a coastal flooding case study in Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has had a cluster of research projects focused on economics and strategic decisions to improve mitigation since its commencement in 2013. A great deal of work has been done across the economic dimension looking at such issues as:
{\textbullet} risk ownership {\textbullet} non-market value of losses {\textbullet} tracking the impacts of disasters as they ripple through sectors of the economy {\textbullet} land use planning policies for reducing losses

These projects seek to present end-users, emergency management agencies and organisations, as well as recovery agency and other relevant departments such as planning and treasury, with more accurate insights into the potential losses from disasters.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {coastal, Emergency management, Floods, mitigation, risk management, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ed Pikusa} } @conference {bnh-6396, title = {A new decision support tool for prescribed burning risk assessment}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In most Australian jurisdictions, the use of prescribed fire is promoted on the basis of its efficacy in mitigation of risk. Despite this, formal attempts to evaluate effects on risk to people, property and environmental values across different jurisdictions are generally lacking. In particular, there is no basis for assessing the generality of attempts to predict risk in response to any particular strategy for use of prescribed fire (e.g. the 5per cent target recommended by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission). General principles therefore need to be developed about how to apply a risk-based approach across widely varying environments, human communities and combinations of key management values.

In this Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project, researchers from the University of Wollongong, Western Sydney University and the University of Melbourne have come together with end users across southern Australia to design a project to systematically investigate how risk to any particular management value will respond to variations in the spatial location and rates of treatment. Project outputs are currently being moulded for utilisation by end users in a dedicated tool, the Prescribed Fire Atlas, which will guide the implementation of {\textquoteleft}tailor-made{\textquoteright} prescribed burning strategies to suit the biophysical, climatic and human context of all bioregions across southern Australia.

}, keywords = {decision support, Fire, perscibed burning, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @conference {bnh-6531, title = {Probability and consequence of post-fire contamination events in a water supply catchment}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large cities around the world source their drinking water from forested catchments, which deliver water that is treatable at minimal costs.

These forests are often prone to wildfire, which tend to increase surface runoff, destabilize soils and trigger increased sediment delivery into water supply systems. The consequences of wildfire for water supply are a significant concern, with the potential for extended periods of water supply disruption, increased water treatment cost, and a demand for catchment restoration and investment in expensive treatment infrastructure. Moreover, with climate change, the likelihood of wildfire is increasing in many forest ecosystems making water supply systems increasingly exposed to post-wildfire contamination.

There are numerous uses for models that predict water quality impacts. On an operational level, models that reveal spatial variation in the erosion susceptibility provide catchment managers with a means to prioritize risk mitigation through fuel reduction or post-wildfire response. In such cases, spatial mapping of erosion risk in a relative sense may be sufficient to provide effective tools for allocating resources and mitigating risk in the areas of the catchment that are most likely to be producing sediment. When developing strategic plans and making decisions about the future management of a water resource, the demands on predictive models increase. For instance, a water supply agency may want to determine if there is a case for upgrading water treatment capability or adjusting the water supply network to reduce the likelihood of water supply interruptions due to wildfires. In this setting, a detailed understanding of risk is required for cost-benefit analysis to inform decisions about such investments.

In this study we are motivated by the need amongst water supply managers to know {\textquoteleft}For how long is it likely that my reservoir will be offline due to contamination by post-wildfire erosion?{\textquoteright}. In addressing this question, we seek to provide the means for developing policy and investment strategies within environmental management frameworks that are underpinned by economics and risk. The specific objective of the study is to model how frequency and magnitude of erosion in headwaters translates to probability and duration of water contamination exceeding treatability thresholds at the water offtake. In this study we only consider sediment in our risk model because treatment facilities are often highly vulnerable to turbidity caused by suspended sediment.

Our paper outlines a parameter-reduction approach whereby empirical transfer functions are used to link a probabilistic model of sediment delivery from burned headwaters and a reservoir hydrodynamic model. With these transfer functions we produce a direct measure of risk (i.e. probability of consequence) and discuss practical questions around potential cost of the wildfire threat to water supply agencies and the capacity for catchment managers to mitigate such costs. Furthermore, we use the model to evaluate how different model components contribute to uncertainty in risk.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {erosion risk, fire impacts, fire severity, risk management, water supply}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Petter Nyman and Peter Yeates and Christoph Langhans and Philip J. Noske and Shane Haydon and Gary J. Sheridan} } @conference {bnh-6528, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus (fire-induced thunderstorms, pyroCb) are associated with unpredictable changes in fire intensity, spread rates and direction, enhanced ember transport and lightning ignitions. Conventional thunderstorm threats such as downbursts, hail, lightning, and tornadoes may also be present. This paper introduces a pyroCb prediction tool and its application is demonstrated.

In favourable atmospheric conditions, suitably large and hot fires can produce pyroCb cloud in the form of deep convective columns with many similarities to conventional thunderstorms. They may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts and lightning strikes, which may enhance fire spread rates and fire intensity, cause sudden changes in fire spread direction, and the lightning may ignite additional fires. Dangerous pyroCb conditions are not well understood and can be very difficult to forecast.

In recent Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) research, a method for determining how favourable the atmospheric environment is for pyroCb development was developed. This method is combined with a plume-rise model (originally developed for pollutant dispersion prediction) to determine how much heat a fire must produce for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment. More specifically, this fire heat is the rate at which heat enters the fire plume (which has units of power), often termed the {\textquoteleft}power of the fire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}firepower{\textquoteright}. A theoretical minimum firepower required for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment is calculated, termed the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT).

Forecast spatial plots of PFT are being trialled that provide an indication of how the favourability of the atmosphere for pyroCb development varies in space and time over typical weather forecast periods. It is anticipated that such plots will provide useful guidance for fire weather forecasters and fire agencies. Preliminary studies have shown that the PFT can vary substantially from day to day, and that days that favour pyroCb formation do not necessarily favour large-hot fires. A PFT-flag is also under development that identifies when both pyroCb and large-hot fires are favourable.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fire impacts, predictors, risk management, thunderstorms}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {KJ Tory} } @conference {bnh-6508, title = {School-based bushfire education: advancing teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In response to Recommendation 6 of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, the topic of bushfire has been incorporated into the Australian school curriculum. To support the implementation of this new curriculum content, fire agencies and education authorities have invested in a range of bushfire education programs and resources. Research in the field of school-based bushfire education has also intensified. Drawing on key findings from a suite of recent Australian studies, this paper outlines two key elements of effective school-based bushfire education that have the potential to advance teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience. The first is a holistic risk framework that builds children{\textquoteright}s conceptual understanding of bushfire risk as a socioenvironmental phenomenon that derives from the interaction a physical hazard, the vulnerability of exposed people and assets, and the capacities people possess for disaster risk reduction. The second is a place-based pedagogy of bushfire risk, which grounds teaching and learning in the socioenvironmental contexts of children{\textquoteright}s lives.\  The paper concludes with some key recommendations for the continued development of good practice in this emergent field.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, education, resilience, risk management, risk reduction, schools, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Briony Towers} } @conference {bnh-6509, title = {Transforming through diversity and inclusion capability {\textendash} the pathway to achieving diversity benefits}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A key driver for building diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) is to better represent diverse cohorts and ensure EMOs and their communities become more resilient to natural hazards. While EMOs have made some progress, dynamic transformation is required to effectively manage the rapidly changing contexts they and their communities face. Central to this is the need to expand the current service{\textendash}client relationship to become a more inclusive partnership model that builds resilience.
This paper reports on Phase 2 of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, which aimed to develop a D\&I framework for the emergency management sector (EMS). Key aspects are: A process framework to guide organisations by linking strategic objectives to day-today decision making and integrates D\&I practice into organisational systems; Identification and development of specific strategic and people-based capabilities and skills; Management of risks arising as a result of D\&I shocks; and A process to measure and manage progress and assess the benefits derived from investment.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Natural hazards, organisations, resilience, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6637, title = {Understanding the nature of abrupt decadal shifts in a changing climate}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planning for future climate risk tends to incorporate assumptions of smoothly accelerating\ climate change, around which unchanged variability constitutes the risk boundaries. This\ constitutes hypothesis H1 {\textendash} forced warming and natural variability evolve gradually and\ independently and the climate response is trend-like. Against this, there is evidence for H2 {\textendash}\ forced warming interacts with natural variability and the climate response includes abrupt\ steps. Earlier than expected breaching of risk bounds follows from H2.\ 

New automation tools, and post-detection tests find and characterise step-like regime onsets\ in temperatures.\ 

With these tools I show that step-like temperature regime shifts are detectable at all spatial\ scales at the land and ocean surface, and in the vertical temperature structure of the ocean.\ Based on published climate models shifts respond to warming by becoming more intense,\ wider-spread and more frequent. Regimes are regional, differ qualitatively between land and\ ocean, align with natural variability coincident with known bio-physical shifts. Two, circa 1976\ and 1996, align with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, involving rapid vertical ocean\ restructuring. One, 1968 in the Southern Hemisphere ocean does not, and 1986 in the\ Northern Hemisphere reflects atmospheric reorganisation.

H2 is strongly supported by the findings. Step-like warming dominates trends, increasingly so\ at finer scale.

}, keywords = {climate, Climate change, decadal shifts, risk management}, author = {Ricketts, J} } @article {bnh-6221, title = {Urban planning: historical changes integrating bushfire risk management in Victoria}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, pages = {60-66}, abstract = {

Bushfires represent an increased risk for people and properties in exposed urban areas. The integration of bushfire risk management considerations into urban planning is one of the approaches used to address this challenge. This paper summarises the key changes in urban planning and building regulations that were introduced in Victoria over time to minimise the effects of bushfire on settlements. These have generally occurred within four main eras, being the independent origins of planning and bushfire risk management, the progressive emergence of bushfire risk management into urban planning between the late 1970s and the early 1990s, the formalisation of bushfire risk management via urban planning with the Wildfire Management Overlay in 1997 and the 2011 reforms associated with the Bushfire Management Overlay and its following adjustments. Advancements in urban planning regulation have usually occurred after bushfire events that inflicted significant losses on communities. These changes represent an ongoing trend towards the integration of bushfire risk reduction measures into urban planning mechanisms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, risk management, urban planning}, url = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Alan March and Justin Leonard and Mark Holland and Blanchi, Raphaele} } @conference {bnh-6523, title = {Utilisation of fire spread simulators to assess power network fire risk }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Western Power is a Western Australian State Government owned power network and energy corporation. In 2013, an external review commissioned by Western Power, recommended the development of an improved bushfire risk map for the network based on the consequences of potential network bushfire ignitions. In response to the review Western Power entered into a joint collaboration with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) and Landgate to develop a multiple ignition point based bushfire risk analysis product suitable for use on the power network across the south west of Western Australia.

The objective of this project is to assist Western Power in prioritising their asset renewal and maintenance budget to ensure they{\textquoteright}ve addressed sites with the highest potential consequences, realising better public safety out-comes. The utilisation of the fire spread simulator system Aurora, to model the consequences of a bushfire ignition from power poles and wires has been investigated to provide this intelligence. Western Power maintains approximately 800,000 power poles within the south west of Western Australia. The development of an appropriate methodology to provide the required intelligence for the prioritisation of appropriate asset renewal and maintenance implementation programs in response to the risk of bushfire ignition, has proven to be challenging.

Aurora is a web-based bushfire spread prediction system that simulates the probable direction, intensity and rate of bushfire spread. The simulator considers ignition location, vegetation, time of last burn, fuel accumulation models, forecasted weather, drought factor, grassland curing and slope to calculate fire behaviour and spread. For this project, the simulator architecture uses 99.5th percentile Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) weather conditions for each of the 8 cardinal wind directions to produce 6 million fire spread
simulations. These simulations together with a building location dataset are used to estimate asset numbers that could potentially be impacted by a fire running for one hour, from each power pole. Using this methodology maintenance can be prioritised for individual power poles based on the potential impact of a bushfire caused by a fault.

The successful completion of this project will result in a welldeveloped methodology, Information Communication and Technology (ICT) system infrastructure and potential consequence datasets with the potential to utilise multiple activities and assets as potential ignition sources, therefore providing DFES with enhanced evidence-based datasets to support strategic decision making for early community warning and preparedness.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Fire risk, prediction system, risk management, simulator, weather conditions}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Parker, Jackson and Allen, Adrian} } @article {bnh-5955, title = {The value of disaster research: a review of the literature}, number = {505}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Increasingly, funders, governments, stakeholders and end-users expect to see tangible evidence that an investment in research is a worthy use of resources; that it informs policy and practice; or to justify the provision of current and future funding. The value of research is measured by assessing the extent to which research has impact. Research impact is defined as {\textquotedblleft}a demonstrable contribution that research makes to the economy, society, culture, national security, public policy or services, health, the environment, or quality of life, beyond contributions to academia{\textquotedblright} (Alla et al.). These value-outcomes are achieved via the pathways of knowledge generation, capacity building, creation of scientific methods, researcher and end-user network collaborations, and policymaking support. Bushfire and natural hazard research evidence is utilised by emergency and fire agencies, governments, policymakers, and householders and landowners.

Research impact assessment is undertaken with the aim of addressing advocacy, analysis, accountability and allocation. It is also a valuable tool for use whilst planning research to ensure a greater impact. A major problem associated with research impact assessment is that of attribution: it is extremely difficult to assign causality for any outcome to a specific piece of research. This difficulty is exacerbated by the usually large time lag between research findings and policy impact, behaviour change, or change in environment or economy.

Various frameworks have been developed to assess the impact of research; whilst the majority of those reviewed were developed for the healthcare sector, there are more broad frameworks which have evolved to encompass a breadth of research areas and level of research. Impact has generally been categorised as economic (direct influence on the economy of the researcher, agency, population, or government as well as knowledge, market and network spill overs); academic (influence within academia, researcher and end-user collaborations, capacity building, training and leadership); and social or societal (a broad category including social values, national security, influence on policy and decision making).

Economic impact has largely been measured using cost-benefit analysis or a return on investment approach (including a social return on investment). Over the effect life cycle, public research is valued at 3 to 8 times the initial investment. Median annual rates of return are between 20\% and 50\% but this varies considerably between sectors. (Georghiou (2015)) . At an aggregate level, the return on investment in Australian disaster research has been estimated at between $1.17 to $1.40 for each dollar invested (Access Economics, 2003, Access Economics, 2008) . As most of the research within the natural hazard sector does not produce goods or services which pass through a market, a non-market method of valuing outcomes is required. The application of public value theory has created methodologies including public value mapping to understand the non-economic and non-scientific goals of research; that is, the core values (public values) of the research.

There is no specific framework for assessing the value of research in the bushfire and wildfire context, however adaptation of the {\textquotedblleft}pathways to research impact{\textquotedblright} tool created by Cruz Rivera et al. (2017) may be helpful in achieving appropriate impact measurement.\ 

}, keywords = {cost-effective, economics, Emergency management, Natural disasters, Policy, risk management}, issn = {505}, author = {Ken Strahan and Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6636, title = {Increasing the comprehensiveness of bushfire risk management in Victoria through the planning system}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Settlement patterns and projected climate change impacts for Victoria are increasing the likelihood of bushfire exposure to human settlements. Urban planning is now considered an important component in disaster risk reduction and bushfire risk management; however, it has not always played such a role. Bushfire planning controls in Victoria have adapted to the threat of bushfires over time, but the changes have not been documented in detail. A review of past and present policy and regulations is needed to determine the comprehensiveness of Victoria{\textquoteright}s approach to bushfire risk management and to identify any gaps so that bushfire threats can be better addressed in the future.

This thesis seeks to examine the comprehensiveness of bushfire planning controls in Victoria between 2008 and 2018 and how changes to planning scheme regulations have modified the level of comprehensiveness over time. To determine comprehensiveness, bushfire risk management policy from the Victoria Planning Provisions were analysed at key time periods against a conceptual framework based on five accepted categories of approaches for reducing and adapting to hazards in human settlements. The five categories were hazard avoidance, hazard reduction, vulnerability reduction, preparedness for response and preparedness for recovery. Policy was analysed using a pattern matching technique and a simple time series analysis. The results indicate that Victoria{\textquoteright}s current approach to bushfire risk management is more comprehensiveness than that was in place in 2008 because risk, vulnerability and bushfire behaviour, and four of the five categories for reducing and adapting to hazards are better addressed through policy. Overall, current policy is not as comprehensive as policy that was introduced in 2011. This thesis concludes by highlighting gaps in current policy that should be addressed in the future to improve resilience to bushfire hazards and outlines recommendations for further research.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, planning system, risk management}, author = {Lucy Ockenden} } @conference {bnh-6026, title = {Analytical Model for Seismic Retrofit of Concrete Beam-Column Joint using Diagonal Metallic Haunch}, booktitle = {World Congress on Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics}, year = {2017}, month = {01/09/2017}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Korea}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile concrete frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint is explored. This paper presents the key formulations and illustrates its effectiveness by investigating the changes in the shear demand at the joint through a case study.

}, keywords = {building, building disaster proof, construction, Emergency management, engineering, hazards, risk management}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and Zabihi, Alireza and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @conference {bnh-6028, title = {Analytical development of seismic retrofit technique for RC beam-column joint using single diagonal haunch}, booktitle = {24th Australian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Perth, Australia}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for preventing brittle failure of the joint. Previous research has been focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. Hence, the feasibility of using single haunch system for retrofitting RC beam-column joint is explored in this study. This paper presents the analytical development of the technique and illustrates its effectiveness by showing the changes in the shear demand at the joint.

}, keywords = {building, construction, earthquake, engineering, retrofitting, risk management}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {14, title = {Integrated economic assessment of fire risk management strategies: Case studies in Central Otago, New Zealand, and Mount Lofty Region, South Australia}, volume = {44}, year = {2014}, month = {24/02/2014}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, address = {Melbourne, Australia}, abstract = {

There are various options available to fire managers for strategically reducing losses from future fires. With limited funds, an increasing population to protect from fire, and an increasing tendency for people to live in fire-prone areas, fire managers face a significant resource allocation challenge. Knowing which fire-risk mitigation strategies provide the best value for money is potentially of great benefit. However the assessment of fire prevention strategies is complex, requiring integration of a large volume of information of various different types (technical, social, economic).

The aim of this study is to provide insights into the question of which fire-prevention strategies provide the best value for money? The approach taken in this analysis was inspired by INFFER (the Investment Framework for Environmental Resources), particularly by its application to the Gippsland Lakes. The management problem addressed in that study was similarly complex as the fire management problem. It was addressed using a quantitative analysis that integrated information about risk, management, costs, and values, in a spatial context, with high levels of stakeholder consultation. A broadly similar approach is applied in this study. We present a quantitative decision framework to provide an integrated assessment of the benefits and costs of fire risk management strategies.

Key findings from the project follow below. It is important to remember that these are specific pilot studies (and hence the outcomes relate to the two study areas and the scope of the analyses conducted). Generalisations about prescribed burning for other areas and circumstances should not be drawn from these studies. This project shows that the methodology works and can provide valuable decision-making inputs to fire management programs.

Various fire risk management strategies have potential to generate benefits, but they should be applied in a targeted way. This was particularly the case for prescribed burning in the Mount Lofty region study (South Australia), where a general prescribed burning strategy across all sub-regions does not provide value for money but prescribed burning in targeted sub-regions does.

Some strategies have particularly high costs and these are unlikely to provide value for money unless they can generate exceptional levels of fire prevention. The high cost usually occurred because strategies required actions over a large area and therefore incurred costs over a large area.

Benefits from reductions in fire spread from one zone to another were relatively low in both case studies. The majority of benefits were generated from strategies that were applied within or close to the valuable assets. Although information about fire spread was relatively weak, results were not sensitive to changes in the assumptions about spread within a plus/minus 50 per cent range.

On average, benefits from reducing asset losses are much larger than benefits from reducing suppression costs.

The most severe fires tend to cause the majority of losses, even after allowing for the fact that the most severe fires are rare events. This means that the majority of benefits from fire management occur in rare events. In between those rare events, strategies that offer good value for money on a long-term probabilistic basis may have costs in excess of benefits in most years.

The quantity and quality of available data was low for a number of key parameters. Some information was not collected, and some was not in an easily interpretable format.

In both case studies (Mt Lofty Ranges, South Australia and Central Otago, New Zealand) the model results were found to be sensitive to several variables about which uncertainty was high. These provide a potential focus for future data collection.

}, keywords = {fire management, risk management}, isbn = {978 - 0 - 9875218 - 6 - 6}, author = {David J Pannell and Fiona L Gibson} } @article {bnh-1639, title = {Risk Management from a Legal and Governance Perspective}, journal = {Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management}, volume = {4}, year = {2014}, month = {12/09/2014}, pages = {61-72}, chapter = {61}, abstract = {
Risk management is seen as the key to living with potentially catastrophic hazards, but the language of disaster risk management carries with it the implication that all risks can in fact be managed. This implies that if there is an adverse outcome, even accepting an inherent residual risk, there must have been a failure by those responsible. The concept of risk management raises the further risk of being blamed for failing to meet community expectations and that risk, too, needs to be managed. Power says:
{\textellipsis} experts who are being made increasingly accountable for what they do are now becoming more preoccupied with managing their own risks. Specifically, secondary risks to their reputation are becoming as significant as the primary risks for which experts have knowledge and training. (Power, M., The Risk Management of Everything (Demos, London 2004) 14).
The ultimate expression of the secondary risk came with the conviction of six Italian scientists for manslaughter, over their failure to issue appropriate warnings regarding the risk of the 2009 L{\textquoteright}Aquila earthquake.
This paper looks at the question of risk management from a legal and governance perspective. Drawing on developments in law and policy from Australia and around the world, this paper will explore whether disaster risk management is moving from reducing the risk to communities to reducing the risk to governments and emergency managers. Legal and policy reforms that may help to refocus disaster risk management to those vulnerable to hazards, rather than vulnerable to blame, will be identified.

}, keywords = {governance, law, risk management}, issn = {2185-8322}, doi = {10.5595/idrim.2014.0076}, url = {http://idrimjournal.com/index.php/idrim/article/view/76}, author = {Michael Eburn and Dovers, Steve} }