@article {bnh-8380, title = {Using videos in floods and bushfires to educate, signal risk, and promote protective action in the community}, journal = {Safety Science}, volume = {164}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, abstract = {

Videos are commonly used by emergency services agencies in natural hazard emergencies to communicate to the public about the hazard, its possible risks, and to promote protective action. To evaluate the efficacy of the videos being disseminated and amplified during an event, this research examined the extent to which different types of videos trigger risk perceptions, promote protective action, and improve knowledge about the hazard and impact. The findings suggest a video containing a smaller number of facts is most useful at impacting the public{\textquoteright}s hazard knowledge, visualisations (real-life or infographics) of facts helps improve knowledge, and videos highlighting the impact an emergency is having (or had) through people{\textquoteright}s experiences helped improve hazard knowledge, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. Finally, while footage of a bushfire triggers threat perceptions and some coping appraisal, the style is not as useful for building hazard knowledge. The research extends visual risk literacy knowledge and offers practical guidance for agencies operating in high-risk environments seeking to achieve behavioural compliance. The research argues videos will continue to be an important tool in the public information and warning milieu for any risk event.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Floods, Hazard knowledge, Risk perception, Visual communication, wildfires}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106166}, url = {https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S092575352300108X?token=E04DACC8FEDBF7004C50FE7FE1D497A53312A572F2594F14129DBAA7AEB2CA157658D01EDBA569E71D658B294138AA15\&originRegion=us-east-1\&originCreation=20230508003157}, author = {Paula Dootson and Erica Kuligowski and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-7943, title = {Assessing the real costs of natural hazard-induced disasters: A case study from Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

Natural Hazard-induced Disasters (NHD) cause a wide range of losses to built and natural environments, the latter often beyond standard measures. Precise accounting and characterisation of the losses can assist in developing effective management policies that help to build resilient communities. This study applies trans-disciplinary approaches to assess total, monetary and non-monetary, NHD-related losses, estimated at AUD 156 million per year (2010{\textendash}2019 average), for Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory where bushfires, cyclones, storms and floods are destructive and frequent events. Non-monetary losses, often overlooked or omitted, were estimated at AUD103 million per year, accounting for two-thirds of total disaster-related losses. Marketable losses, estimated at AUD 53 million per year, were inferred, using standard and non-standard datasets, from the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements, insurance costs (Insurance Council of Australia database), and other relevant sources. Non-monetary losses were accounted for by the loss of ecosystem services from natural systems caused by cyclones and bushfires only, applying ecological economics approaches, but without considering long-term losses over the duration of recovery. This study informs disaster management policies to invest in collective emergency and environmental management planning for reducing NHD risk and building resilience of local communities to manage and prepare for rapidly changing climates. Such an accounting approach is essential in contexts where NHDs disproportionately affect the lives and well-being of disadvantaged remote communities.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Cost of natural disasters, cyclones, Floods, Loss from natural disasters, Natural hazard-induced disasters}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y$\#$citeas}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Akhilesh Surjan} } @article {bnh-8278, title = {Encouraging evacuation: the role of behavioural message inputs in bushfire warnings}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, abstract = {

In catastrophic bushfires or wildfires, warnings are issued by emergency service organisations to inform communities about the hazard and provide guidance about protective actions. Long-form warnings are complemented by shorter social media warnings that preference content about hazard severity. Warnings that do not include clear behavioural guidance can challenge clarity and community uptake. However, there has been little research that examines and compares existing warnings with those constructed to encourage behavioural intentions. In this study, we follow the Protective Action Decision Model and first identify cues that predict evacuation intentions. Next, we compare existing long-form and social media warnings with those modified to include behavioural advice and instruction to examine their effect on clarity and ease of action and protective action intentions. Findings show how the inclusion of behavioural inputs into social media warnings enhances protective action intentions, offering evidence to specifically support changes to existing practice.

}, keywords = {Behavioural inputs, bushfires, Evacuation, warning}, issn = {2212-4209}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102673}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921006348}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Scott Murray and Ryan McAndrew and Michaela Jackson and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-7834, title = {Modulating influence of drought on the synergy between heatwaves and dead fine fuel moisture content of bushfire fuels in the Southeast Australian region}, journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes}, volume = {31}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

During the 2019-20 summer season, Australia experienced frequent heatwave events with scorching temperatures and massive bushfires with dense smoke. These catastrophic heatwaves and bushfires resulted in huge socio-economic and ecological losses. The frequency and intensity of both heatwaves and bushfires are projected to increase in the future warming world. While considerable effort has been directed at understanding the physical mechanisms of these individual extreme events, an investigation of their interaction is lacking. We focus on the relationship between heatwaves and bushfire fuels by considering dead fine fuel moisture content, a critical factor that regulates the intensity, spread rate and the likelihood of profuse spotting of fires. We investigate the relationship by exploring the statistical correlations between various heatwave characteristics (frequency, duration, magnitude, and amplitude) and mean dead fine fuel moisture content over southeast Australia in the peak heat and fire season. This relationship varies among different heatwave characteristics as well as with regions. The prolonged duration of a heatwave is well associated with dead fine fuel dryness around the southeastern parts of the Southeast Australian region, whereas the hotter heatwave season favours the lower dead fine fuel moisture content over the Northeast parts of the Southeast Australia and central Victorian region. Results also suggest that dead fine fuel moisture content is significantly decreased on heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days. Lastly, we explored the effects of rainfall deficit on the relationship between heatwave and mean dead fine fuel moisture content by splitting the seasons based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Results show that the correlation strength is both seasonally and regionally dependent.

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, Drought, Extreme events, fuel moisture content, heatwaves}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100300}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720303133}, author = {P Jyoteeshkumar reddy and Jason J. Sharples and Sophie Lewis and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick} } @article {bnh-6814, title = {Aboriginal Peoples and the response to the 2019-2020 bushfires}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Aboriginal people were among those most affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires in south-eastern Australia. Yet aside from renewed public interest in cultural burning practices, Aboriginal people have received little attention in the post-bushfire response. In this paper, we describe population geography of Aboriginal peoples affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfire season in New South Wales and Victoria, and the geography of Aboriginal legal rights and interests in land across these states. We find that over 84 000 Indigenous people, or one-quarter of the Indigenous population of NSW and Victoria, live in the bushfire-affected area. While Indigenous people comprise nearly 5.4\% of the 1.55 million people living in fire-affected areas, they are only 2.3\% of the total population of NSW and Victoria. Because Indigenous people in the bushfire-affected area have younger population profiles, more than one-tenth of children in the bushfire-affected area are Indigenous, raising the diverse effects of bushfires on infants and children in particular. Aboriginal people also have a variety of distinct and spatially extensive legal rights and interests in land as First Peoples, including across much of the fire-affected area. Presenting a series of quotations from published accounts, we demonstrate that the Aboriginal experience of the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires have been different from those of non-Indigenous Australians.

}, keywords = {Aboriginal peoples, bushfires, Emergency management, Natural hazards}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.25911/ 5e7882623186c}, url = {https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/aboriginal-peoples-and-response-2019-2020-bushfires}, author = {Bhiamie Williamson and Francis Markham and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-7417, title = {Climatology of wind changes and elevated fire danger over Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Wind changes are a critical factor in fire management, particularly on days of elevated fire danger, and have been shown to be a factor in many firefighter entrapments in Australia and the USA. While there have been numerous studies of frontal wind changes over southeastern Australia since the 1950s, a spatial climatology of wind change strength and frequency over Victoria has hitherto been limited by the relatively low number of observation sites that have both high temporal resolution observations and sufficient length of record. This study used a recently developed high spatial (4-km grid) and temporal (1 hour) resolution, 46-year, homogeneous gridded fire weather climatology data set to generate a climatology of wind change strength by season at each gridpoint across Victoria. The metric used to define a wind change is the vector difference between the wind speed and direction over each 1-hour interval, with the highest value occuring on each day being selected for spatial analysis of strength and frequency. The highest values of wind change strength are found along the crest of the Great Dividing Range (the Great Divide), with a peak in spring. Elsewhere, the highest values occur in summer, with the areas south of the Great Divide, west of Melbourne and in central Gippsland showing higher values than the remainder of the state. The strength of wind changes generally decreases north of the Great Divide, although it is stronger in the northwest of the state in spring rather than in autumn. Lowest summertime (and other seasons) values occur in the northeast of the state and in far-east Gippsland. Exploring the frequencies of days when the highest daily Forest Fire Danger Index and the highest daily wind change strength jointly exceed defined thresholds shows that the northwest of the state has the highest springtime frequencies, whereas the highest autumn frequencies occur west of Melbourne and south of the Great Divide. The highest numbers of joint events in summer (when the greatest frequencies also occur) extend from central Victoria west to the South Australian border, with a secondary maximum in central Gippsland. These analyses offer important information for fire weather forecasters and for fire practitioners when preparing for a fire season or managing a fire campaign (for example, for allocating resources or understanding risks).

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, climatology, extreme weather, fire danger, fire management, firefighter entrapment, Victoria, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19043}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES19043}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Sarah Harris and Brown, T and Alex Chen} } @article {bnh-7089, title = {Disasters and economic resilience in small regional communities: the case of Toodyay}, number = {589}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socioeconomic effects on impacted communities. Examples in the past decade include the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires 2009 and the Queensland Floods 2010-11, which caused significant loss of life, losses across multiple sectors (including mining and agriculture), and damage to countless homes and properties. With the severity and frequency of natural disasters expected to increase (Kitching et al., 2014), there is growing academic and policy effort towards better understanding: the risks such disasters pose on Australian communities; the impacts they have on different industry sectors and community groups; and the role that disaster risk reduction can play in minimising such impacts and building disaster resilience.

Estimating the total economic costs of natural disasters can be difficult, owing to the lack of complete and systematic data, conceptual difficulties (Kousky, 2014) and divergent predictions from growth theory about the effects of natural disasters on economic growth (Loayza et al., 2012). While the literature is inconclusive, with some studies reporting negative effects and others positive or insignificant effects (Loayza et al., 2012), a recent meta-analysis of the literature showed evidence of negative impacts in terms of direct costs (Lazzaroni and van Bergeijk, 2014), with more severe disasters causing the highest damage and increasing the likelihood of long-term and/or negative consequences (Boustan et al., 2017; Kousky, 2014).

There is also evidence of distributional effects. Economic and human losses shown to be more pronounced in poorer countries (Schumacher and Strobl, 2011), and institutional factors and educational attainment levels found to be important determinants that influence resilience and recovery (Kousky, 2014; Felbermayra and Gr{\"o}schl, 2014). Economic diversity also matters. Relying on a single economic sector for income heightens community vulnerability and elongates disaster recovery time compared to diversified economies (Cutter et al., 2008). The type and interlinkages of economic sectors also play a significant role. Due to its land-intensive nature, the agricultural sector is often adversely affected (FAO, 2015). Locally, a study of major Victorian bushfires found that industries most susceptible to direct or indirect impacts are the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector and retail trade (Stephenson, 2010). Conversely, the construction sector may experience a boom in the immediate aftermath of the disaster as households redirect expenditure towards rebuilding that they otherwise would have deferred, only to experience a lull in the next few years once that expenditure subsides (Kousky, 2014). Even with a diversified economy structure, the interdependence of sectors can have knock-on effects (Yu et al., 2014). Thus, industries more heavily reliant on inputs from the agricultural sector are likely to experience adverse effects to their production.

While these broader examinations are useful, aggregated numbers can mask or hide very large distributive impacts, as the typical instruments used (GDP and aggregated consumption) can be misleading measures of actual welfare losses (Hallegatte S, 2014). What is missing is a systematic understanding of how these broader economic impacts of natural disasters translate to the individual level vis-{\`a}-vis income effects; how long these effects persist; and which individuals within the community bear the brunt of these costs. Indeed, regardless of a country{\textquoteright}s economic development, a lower socioeconomic status has been consistently associated with greater post-disaster hardship (Norris et al., 2002), with the poor suffering significant disaster losses due to lower financial capacity and limited access to public and private (e.g. insurance) recovery assets (Blaikie et al. 1994; Gladwin and Peacock 1997). For example, while storm damage from Hurricane Katrina was uniform across demographic groups, it was lower income individuals who were less likely to have evacuated or own cover for flood insurance (Masozera et al. 2007). Many other known vulnerabilities to disasters, such as being female, old age, or with lower educational attainment (McKenzie and Canterford, 2016), are highly correlated or interdependent with income. The link between income and disasters also extends to mental health outcomes: In the case of bushfires, the longevity of disruptions to income post-disaster has been shown to materially affect the mental health of those affected by bushfires (Gibbs et al., 2016). Thus quantifying the effects of disasters based on these social and economic dimensions can help policymakers better target and evaluate disaster mitigation recovery programs.\ 

To that end, our research program explores the impact of a number of Australian natural disasters, of various types (fires, flood and cyclone), scales (small, large), and locational settings (regional, metropolitan) on the disaster-hit individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through their income stream). It disaggregates these impacts on individuals based on who they are (their demographic attributes), if they work (unemployed, employed), how much they work (part-time, full-time) and the industries they work for.

This report investigates the income effects of the 2009 Toodyay bushfire on the income trajectory of residents of Toodyay {\textendash} a small regional town in Western Australia with a population of 4,450 around the time of the bushfire. The fire conditions were some of the worst seen in Western Australia at the time, and burnt around 2,900 hectares, the equivalent of 2\% of the Shire of Toodyay{\textquoteright}s total area. While no casualties were reported, the total cost of damages was estimated at $100 million (FESA, 2010b).

From a policy perspective, this report contributes to a greater understanding of the potential economic effects of natural disasters on individuals and communities living in small regional towns within Australia (FIGURE 1). Toodyay is fairly typical of such small, regional Australian towns, having an ageing population within the 1,000{\textendash}4,999 population range, and an economy historically linked to agriculture, mining and manufacturing; industries which are known to be sensitive to natural disasters (Ulubasoglu et al., 2019). Such towns (~1,700 in 2016) form 9.7\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population and are mostly concentrated around Australia{\textquoteright}s eastern seaboard (ABS, 2018).

For Western Australia in particular, it is expected that agricultural businesses in currently marginal areas, such as the Wheatbelt region (in which Toodyay is located) are most at risk from climate change (Sudmeyer et al., 2016), and so deserve particular attention when considering disaster resilience in the state.

}, keywords = {bushfires, disasters, economic resilience, regional communities, Toodyay}, issn = {589}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6994, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Black Saturday bushfires on individual income}, number = {580}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In an era when the reality of climate change is creating an uncertain future, it is imperative to consider the lasting impact this will have on Australia, which is historically prone to natural disasters. The increased possibility of more frequent and intense natural disasters present a number of issues for Australians, ranging from the impact on vulnerable communities to broader economic consequences.

In an effort to tackle this global phenomenon at a local level, we must turn our attention towards not only the actions required to support our businesses and communities but also to ensuring Australia is ready to adapt and become more economically disaster resilient in an ever changing environment. The urgency and delicacy of the matter is exacerbated when we consider that the average annual total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017) and that fiscal constraints will be imposed on government disaster expenditure due to Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

When a natural disaster strikes, the damages incurred are readily assessable in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. While this information is vital to the economic dimension of disaster resilience policy, it provides little integrity to analysing the direct impact such disasters have on the Australian people and, more specifically, communities and workforces that are more vulnerable to disaster.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Black Saturday Bushfires on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study explores the impact of the Black Saturday bushfires (BSBs) on the income trajectory of individuals in the labour force and residents of the disaster-hit Statistical Area-2s (SA2s). These areas are depicted in red and orange in FIGURE 1.

The 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires were some of the worst bushfire conditions ever recorded globally; equivalent to 1500 of the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima going off (SMH, 2009). One hundred and seventy-three people died; over 2,100 houses and 3,500 structures were destroyed, and thousands more suffered damage (Parliament of Victoria, 2010). The total area destroyed was around 400,000 hectares (CFA, 2009). The toll was estimated to be $3.1 billion in tangible damages and $3.9 billion in intangible costs (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a bushfire on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities at very fine units.

The report makes a unique assessment of economic resilience at an individual level (measured through changes in the income stream), and explores the effects of disaster-induced economic shocks transmitted to individuals through income-earning channels. In turn, this provides a deeper understanding of how income costs of disasters are borne by different areas of the workforce and assists policymakers in understanding the socioeconomics of natural disasters to better formulate public policies.

In an effort to assist policymakers contextualise our assessment at a broader social and economic level, this report amplifies the socioeconomic and disaster-resilience profiles of the disaster hit SA2s.

The findings of the report provide a distinctive variation from research to date by focusing on the way disasters such as the BSB affect individuals within a particular workforce and community, as well as their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

The report attempts to pinpoint the income effects observed in the BSB by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares the income changes of individuals living in the disaster-hit SA2s (treatment group) with those neighbouring SA2s that were not directly hit by the bushfires (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group that provides us with the income path that would have occurred for disaster-hit residents that were reported to be in the labour force in 2006, had the bushfires not happened, and thus enables us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arising from the bushfires. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD)[1], which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the bushfire{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}16.

Our framework was developed to capture income effects following the bushfires. Data limitations impede our ability to confirm some of the assumptions of our modelling approach, but we have taken a number of steps to alleviate the likely impact of these limitations on the reliability of our findings.

Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, our report is the first one utilizing three ABS Censuses to explore income effects of bushfires more comprehensively. Our findings offer compelling insights on how disasters like the BSB affect local economies, individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, disaster resilience, economic resilience, income}, issn = {580}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Yasin Onder} } @article {bnh-7036, title = {Impact of Australia{\textquoteright}s catastrophic 2019/20 bushfire season on communities and environment. Retrospective analysis and current trends}, journal = {Journal of Safety Science and Resilience}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, abstract = {

2019/20 Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire season (Black Summer fires) occurred during a period of record breaking temperatures and extremely low rainfall. To understand the impact of these climatic values we conducted a preliminary analysis of the 2019/20 bushfire season and compared it with the fire seasons between March 2000 and March 2020 in the states of New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, and South Australia (SA). Forest and fire management in Australia were asked to provide data on the number of fires, burned area, life and house loss, as well as weather conditions. By March 2020 Black Summer fires burnt almost 19 million hectares, destroyed over 3,000 houses, and killed 33 people. Data showed that they were unprecedented in terms of impact on all areas. A number of mega-fires occurred in NSW resulting in more burned area than in any fire season during the last 20 years. One of them was the largest recorded forest fire in Australian history. Victoria had a season with the highest number of fires, area burned, and second highest numbers of houses lost for the same period. SA had the highest number of houses lost in the last 20 years. Black Summer fires confirmed existing trends of impact categories during the last two decades for NSW and Victoria. It showed that the smoke from the bushfires may be a significant concern in the future for the global community, as it travels to other countries and continents. Based on preliminary data, it will take many years to restore the economy and infrastructure in impacted areas, and to recover animal and vegetation biodiversity.

}, keywords = {2019/20 season, bushfires, Impact, retrospective analysis}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.06.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449620300098}, author = {Alex Filkov and Tuan Ngo and Stuart Matthews and Simeon Telfer and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7013, title = {Integrating bushfire risk reduction and statutory mechanisms in South Australia: assessment of the draft Planning and Design Code 2019}, number = {584}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires pose significant threats to life and property in many parts of Australia.\  The frequency and intensity of bushfires are increasing over time in association with worsening weather conditions that support extreme fires (Dowdy, 2018) and ongoing settlement growth (Allen, 2018). High bushfire risks generally occur when fires interact with human settlements, where housing and other structures are near flammable vegetation and associated impacts such as ember attack.

This report is an output of the wider project {\textquotedblleft}Integrating Urban Planning with Disaster Risk Reduction{\textquotedblright} funded by the Bushfire Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. It is part of a critical review of the integration of emergency management and urban planning in South Australia focusing on the detail of bushfire treatment mechanisms proposed in the State Planning Reform Document Draft Planning and Design Code {\textendash} Phase 2 Rural Areas (DPTI, 2019b) released in October 2019 by the Department of Transport, Planning and Infrastructure, and State Planning Commission. In parallel, the review also considered other relevant regulations and codes such as AS 3959-2018 Building in Bushfire Prone Areas (Standards Australia - Committee FP-020, 2019) and Ministerial Building Standard MBS008 Designated Bushfire Prone Areas {\textendash} Draft October 2019 (DPTI, 2019a). The present report provides a basis for later work in subsequent stages that develops new approaches and improvements in collaboration with practitioners.

The review begins by setting out the conceptual and theoretical basis of integration and moves to presenting a general description of bushfires and the main factors that contribute to bushfire risks in the built environment. Then, it sets out the main elements of investigation relating to the integration of bushfire risk reduction in the built environment, summarising the adopted research approach and the role of this report in the wider research project. Then the report moves to critically analysing the outcomes of applying these integration principles to bushfire risks as they are dealt with by the draft Code. Findings point to elements of the Code that could be improved to reduce risks across the areas of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

}, keywords = {bushfires, planning and design code, risk reduction, south australia}, issn = {584}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5779, title = {Effects of Sydney coastal dry sclerophyll forest litter on fuels and fire behaviour in Hornsby shire}, volume = {Masters of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, school = {The University of Sydney}, type = {Masters}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Globally bushfires are an ecological phenomenon that can cause deaths and widespread destruction of assets such as homes, utilities and essential infrastructure. Bushfires usually start in forest litter on a forest floor. The research described in this thesis used empirical data to characterise the physical and chemical attributes of litter, a component of forest and woodland fuels that is particularly important for propagation of fire. Differences in the amounts, arrangement and flammability of components of litter were determined for Sydney Coastal Dry Sclerophyll Forest, a common vegetation type in the Sydney Basin. Surface litter was investigated at study sites at Rofe Park, Hornsby Heights and Halls Creek, Arcadia, New South Wales, Australia.

}, keywords = {bushfires, coastal fire, flammability, litter, rubbish, Sydney, vegetation}, author = {Angela Gormley} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6164, title = {Investigation of spotting and intrinsic fire dynamics using a coupled atmosphere-fire modelling framework}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, school = {University of New South Wales}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Large plume-driven wild res are among the most destructive and unpredictable of all natural hazards. A prerequisite for the development of the deep convection characteristic of these res is the existence of a large area of active aming, also known as deep aming. There are a number of processes associated with the development of deep aming; many involve some form of dynamic re behaviour, in which dramatic changes in re behaviour can occur with little or no change in ambient conditions. Another important driver of deep aming is intense spotting and spot- re coalescence, which itself involves dynamic re behaviour. It is difficult to model dynamic re behaviour in a computationally efficient way; it cannot be modelled with existing operational re-spread models. This thesis is concerned with the modelling of dynamic re behaviour, and the modelling of ember transport in turbulent plumes. A coupled atmosphere framework is used to model junction res (the merging of two separate relines at an acute angle), and the fundamental processes causing the asociated dynamic behaviour are identi ed. The idea that reline curvature can act as a proxy for some of the processes underlying dynamic re behaviour is critically examined, and rejected. A recently-developed simple coupled model, the pyrogenic-potential model, is discussed. It is found to produce results comparable with that of a coupled atmosphere\ model in simple test cases involving the ignition of res along circular arcs. The\ pyrogenic-potential model can capture some forms of dynamic behaviour, and is\ efficient enough to be used operationally.\ To study ember transport in turbulent plumes, a large eddy model is used to simulate\ the plume from a static heat source, and the resulting wind eld is used to\ model the transport of embers under various assumptions. It is shown that the\ terminal-velocity assumption, in which embers are assumed to always move at their\ terminal velocity with respect to the wind eld, leads to an overestimate of emberlanding\ densities at medium to long ranges. This has important implications for\ the stochastic modelling of spot- re development.

}, keywords = {bushfire dynamics, bushfires, Fire, fire modelling, framework, spotting}, author = {Thomas, C. M.} } @article {bnh-5928, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts annual report 2018-2019}, number = {511}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is the output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC (BNHCRC), Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2018/2019.

During this financial year we have:

  1. Worked on a comprehensive characterization of fire risk conditions through the integration of fire weather, dead Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and total biomass into the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS);
  2. Worked on AFMS website version 3 that incorporated feedback on the trial utilisation of the data service;
  3. Evaluated the feasibility and benefits of the operational use of alternative satellite data in AFMS to ensure long-term data continuity;
  4. Coupled a process-based model that simulates litter fuel moisture and a distributed biophysical model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model) to predict dead fuel moisture content;
  5. Published six journal manuscripts, seventeen conference abstracts and one milestone reports with another one in preparation. We have also had eight appearances in the media;
  6. Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and
  7. Submitted an application for utilisation funds from the BNHCRC to develop a high-resolution prototype version of AFMS.

Over the next year (2019-2020), this research project will focus on finishing the analysis on the fire risk index as well as using remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves. In terms of utilization, we will liaise with Geoscience Australia (GA) on transitioning the AFMS as GA has agreed to be in charge of the long term operationalization and maintenance.

}, keywords = {bushfires, fire behavior, fire impacts, hazards, impacts, mapping}, issn = {511}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Li Zhao and Honghao Zeng} } @article {bnh-5565, title = {Ten years after the Black Saturday fires, what have we learnt from post-fire research?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Ten years ago, 173 people lost their lives and more than 2000 homes were destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires. The fires of 7 February 2009 led to a royal commission and significant changes to bushfire management throughout Australia. Research played an important role in the royal commission and subsequent changes. This paper reflects on what was learnt from research into human behaviour and community safety undertaken as part of the Bushfire CRC 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Taskforce. The research involved interviews with over 600 householders and a mail survey of 1314 households affected by the fires. This paper reviews findings from subsequent post-fire research to consider the extent to which there have been changes in findings related to community planning, preparedness and responses to bushfire. The review suggests that many of the issues encountered on Black Saturday{\textemdash}limited awareness of and preparedness for bushfire risk, a tendency for leaving (or evacuating) at the last moment and a commitment to defending, even under the highest levels of fire danger{\textemdash}persist, despite major changes to policy and public messaging.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, Emergency management, research}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research/}, author = {J Whittaker} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6159, title = {The impact of bushfires on water quality}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy }, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Population growth in urban areas leads to a higher demand in water use. Quality of water is an important factor not only from an aesthetic view, but also for ecological health purposes.

This paper presented research that is designed to develop a spatial approach to support the planning of the water quality in the areas subjected to bushfires, using a case study from state of Victoria. In particular, this research involved the implementation of a hydrological model in order to predict the river water quality, to assist in the decision-making process. The impact of bushfires on water quality can be highly variable for the most of the individual water quality parametres. This variability is caused by a number of landscape influences and climatic factors, most notably rainfall. High magnitude and intense rainfall events soon after fire generate the largest impacts on water quality and sometimes trigger extreme erosion events.

There are many important water quality parameters that must be taken into account when the water is delivered to the population. For some of the water quality parameters there is very little information available, which makes it difficult to draw conclusions about bushfire impacts. The monitoring campaigns are very expensive, and better options are the modeling tools.
The model used in this research is eWater, a conceptual, semi-distributed model, which applies the flow accumulation principles. eWater Source - Australia{\textquoteright}s National Hydrological Modelling Platform (NHMP) {\textendash} is developed by eWater CRC, Australia. It is designed to simulate all aspects of water resource systems to support integrated planning, operations and governance from urban, catchment to river basin scales including human and ecological influences.

The catchment analyzed can be divided into sub-catchments and functional units. The model integrates rainfall runoff, constituent generation and filter models, which are parameterized. The user must find the best set of parameters that is suitable for that catchment. After calibration and validation, the model can be used in the same catchment for any period of time, and it will be able to predict the pollution levels in the catchment, with a good accuracy. Also, a user can follow the same steps, to calibrate the model for any other catchment. This method is time consuming, but it doesn{\textquoteright}t require many input data.The fires and the rain are classified in 3 classes each. Then, the landuse, the burnt areas and the areas with rain are combined and parameterized separately.

The outputs from the developed model are good correlated with the measured data, and show higher concentrations of suspended sediment and nutrients after bushfire followed by rain. To improve the model performance, the measured water quality data must be daily data with a better accuracy.

}, keywords = {bushfires, modeling, water pollution, water quality}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162351}, author = {graducan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6625, title = {Parenting after Black Saturday: lived experiences since the 2009 Victorian bushfires}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the aftermath of disasters, parenting is often recognised for its influence on children{\textquoteright}s wellbeing and recovery. Research has also shown that the parental role has implications for parents{\textquoteright} post-disaster mental health as well. However, little is known about what the experience is like for parents themselves, particularly in Australia. In February 2009, catastrophic bushfires burned across the state of Victoria resulting in tragic loss of life, significant destruction of property and land, and disruption to communities. This study explored what it has been like to be a parent since the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 parents (19 mothers, 3 fathers) who, along with their dependent children, survived the Black Saturday bushfires. The interviews were conducted around 6-7 years following the fires, thus offering a longer-term perspective than much of the research in this area to date. An inductive thematic analysis was conducted to explore parental experiences over the years since the disaster.

The findings provide insight into parents{\textquoteright} experience of adjusting to life after the fires as that of being forced into a new normal. Parenting after the bushfires stood out for many as being different and difficult. For some, the extent or nature of the changes were spoken about as a loss of a valued part of their identity. Some changes stood out as new situations, ones they had never expected to face as parents. There were also challenges they considered typical of parenting which were amplified after the disaster and now felt beyond parents{\textquoteright} control.

This study identified five parenting challenges faced by participants in the aftermath of Black Saturday: (i) parenting flexibly and finding new strategies; (ii) sticking to their values; (iii) being present and available; (iv) being patient and tolerant; and, (v) negotiating differing needs. The challenges showed ways in which the post-disaster environment (e.g., the number of demands, changes within their communities), parental mental health (their own or their partner{\textquoteright}s trauma and grief reactions) and their children{\textquoteright}s mental health at times undermined their efforts to be the parents that they wanted to be.

Parental experiences of supports and services showed the value and nuance of relationships and indicated ways in which formal services can facilitate or strengthen social support. Additionally, the importance of reinforcements with helping children cope as well as services to assist parents{\textquoteright} own coping was highlighted. The findings also speak to the critical significance of childcare (in particular the availability of safe and trusted places for children) and value in facilitating opportunities for time together as a family away from the onslaught of post-disaster demands.

This study contributes to understanding the complexities of parenting and unique experiences of parents post-disaster. It has provided detailed insight into parental experiences following the Black Saturday bushfires offering an opportunity to acknowledge, normalize, and validate such challenges.

}, keywords = {bushfires, disaster, parental experience, parenting}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/222996}, author = {Lauren Kosta} } @article {bnh-7289, title = {Household preparedness for bushfires: the role of residents{\textquoteright} engagement with information sources}, number = {604}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The following report shows that even after controlling for bushfire risk perceptions, people who access and engage with information sources are better prepared for bushfires than those who do not. The report notes, however, that the majority of people are not accessing information on how to prepare their household for bushfires, despite being at risk of this occurrence. Several key finding are summarised below.

}, keywords = {bushfires, household preparedness, information sources, resident engagement}, issn = {604}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero and Elle McIntosh} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4632, title = {Fighting fires and fatigue: sleep, physical activity, and physical task performance}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildfires are any uncontrolled, non-structural burning in grass, scrub, bush, or forests. Wildfires can have a debilitating impact on communities in North America, South America, Southern Europe, and Australia, with the loss of property, livestock, and human life. The financial burden of wildfire is immense. For example, the average annual cost of wildfire in Australia is $77 million (AUD). Globally, the frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires is predicted to escalate, due, at least in part, to climate change resulting in hotter and drier summers. The increase in wildfire activity will result in more frequent and/or longer deployments which may exacerbate the cognitive and physical demands placed on wildland firefighting personnel.

}, keywords = {bushfires, emergency management., fatigue, firefighters, fires, Sleep}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30079447/vincent-fightingfires-2015A.pdf}, author = {Grace Vincent} }