@article {bnh-8380, title = {Using videos in floods and bushfires to educate, signal risk, and promote protective action in the community}, journal = {Safety Science}, volume = {164}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, abstract = {

Videos are commonly used by emergency services agencies in natural hazard emergencies to communicate to the public about the hazard, its possible risks, and to promote protective action. To evaluate the efficacy of the videos being disseminated and amplified during an event, this research examined the extent to which different types of videos trigger risk perceptions, promote protective action, and improve knowledge about the hazard and impact. The findings suggest a video containing a smaller number of facts is most useful at impacting the public{\textquoteright}s hazard knowledge, visualisations (real-life or infographics) of facts helps improve knowledge, and videos highlighting the impact an emergency is having (or had) through people{\textquoteright}s experiences helped improve hazard knowledge, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. Finally, while footage of a bushfire triggers threat perceptions and some coping appraisal, the style is not as useful for building hazard knowledge. The research extends visual risk literacy knowledge and offers practical guidance for agencies operating in high-risk environments seeking to achieve behavioural compliance. The research argues videos will continue to be an important tool in the public information and warning milieu for any risk event.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Floods, Hazard knowledge, Risk perception, Visual communication, wildfires}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106166}, url = {https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S092575352300108X?token=E04DACC8FEDBF7004C50FE7FE1D497A53312A572F2594F14129DBAA7AEB2CA157658D01EDBA569E71D658B294138AA15\&originRegion=us-east-1\&originCreation=20230508003157}, author = {Paula Dootson and Erica Kuligowski and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-7943, title = {Assessing the real costs of natural hazard-induced disasters: A case study from Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

Natural Hazard-induced Disasters (NHD) cause a wide range of losses to built and natural environments, the latter often beyond standard measures. Precise accounting and characterisation of the losses can assist in developing effective management policies that help to build resilient communities. This study applies trans-disciplinary approaches to assess total, monetary and non-monetary, NHD-related losses, estimated at AUD 156 million per year (2010{\textendash}2019 average), for Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory where bushfires, cyclones, storms and floods are destructive and frequent events. Non-monetary losses, often overlooked or omitted, were estimated at AUD103 million per year, accounting for two-thirds of total disaster-related losses. Marketable losses, estimated at AUD 53 million per year, were inferred, using standard and non-standard datasets, from the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements, insurance costs (Insurance Council of Australia database), and other relevant sources. Non-monetary losses were accounted for by the loss of ecosystem services from natural systems caused by cyclones and bushfires only, applying ecological economics approaches, but without considering long-term losses over the duration of recovery. This study informs disaster management policies to invest in collective emergency and environmental management planning for reducing NHD risk and building resilience of local communities to manage and prepare for rapidly changing climates. Such an accounting approach is essential in contexts where NHDs disproportionately affect the lives and well-being of disadvantaged remote communities.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Cost of natural disasters, cyclones, Floods, Loss from natural disasters, Natural hazard-induced disasters}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y$\#$citeas}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Akhilesh Surjan} } @article {bnh-7839, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fire, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - final project report}, number = {646}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, titled Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts, was a partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology, and examined the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project addresses a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events. The research conducted in the present project solely focuses on the application of soil and land dryness/moisture in the context of fire danger and fire management practices. The lack of focus on flood and heatwave is circumstantial. The research priorities were set and driven by the requirements of the project end-users, all of them from various fire management agencies across Australia. Hence, the end-use interest was solely on the application of the research in fire management. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing that there is a substantial amount of research literature which establishes the importance of soil moisture in flood and heatwave prediction and applications.

Currently, landscape dryness for fire management is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI). An initial study performed as part of this project suggested that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physics-based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

JASMIN prototype

To address this, the present project developed a standalone prototype land surface modelling system, called Joint UK Land Environment Simulator based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations shows that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

Though JASMIN can supplement many applications that require accurate soil moisture estimates, the biggest beneficiary of this new system will be the fire agencies. The soil moisture estimate from the new system provides a robust alternative to the methods currently used in fire prediction. This is evident from the verifications performed against in situ measurements. KBDI and SDI show large errors over regions where they are used operationally. KBDI, for example, has a large wet bias over southern regions that could undermine fire danger ratings. The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture information over a wide range of land-use types, which potentially extends its applicability to other fields as well. Also, JASMIN is shown to have good skill for both surface and deep soil horizons.

JASMIN calibration

To promote an effective adoption of JASMIN in current operational practices, calibration methods were applied to the native JASMIN soil moisture datasets. The key aim of these methods was to calibrate JASMIN outputs in units of moisture excess to moisture deficit values that range from 0{\textendash}200, as required by McArthur{\textquoteright}s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI; McArthur, 1967). The calibration offers a simple, faster and cost-effective way to make significant upgrades to the existing operational systems used by fire and other environmental agencies.

The calibration methods applied were minimum-maximum matching, mean-variance matching, and cumulative distribution function matching. The selection of these calibration methods was based on the potential end-user requirement, whether that is to simply replace the legacy systems with a new product with high skill (e.g., minimum-maximum method), or to replace the existing system that captures the temporal variations better while preserving the climatology of the older system (e.g., mean-variance and cumulative distribution function matching). The latter could be useful if existing operating systems are already tuned to offset the bias in the current soil moisture deficit methods.

Improving high spatial resolution mapping

This project also aimed to improve applications such as fire danger mapping that may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. A common practice to overcome such a problem is to employ downscaling methods to increase the spatial scale of the product. Recent advances in optical remote sensing have allowed researchers to use different remote sensing products that reflect soil moisture variability as ancillary information. A method based on a {\textquotedblleft}universal triangle{\textquotedblright} concept is used in several previous studies, which establishes a relationship between soil moisture, vegetation index, and surface radiant temperature from optical remote sensing. This project applied three downscaling methodologies: two based on regression and one based on a physics-based approach.

Results from the downscaling methodologies indicate that it is feasible to improve the spatial resolution of JASMIN using all three disaggregating algorithms and preserve the general large-scale spatial structure seen in JASMIN soil moisture estimates. However, the seasonal means obtained at 1 km show that each product displays characteristic soil moisture spatial variability at fine scales. Results from the comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods when moving to higher spatial resolution.

Predicting live fuel moisture content

Prediction of the moisture status in live fuels is an important gap in current fire management practices which, if filled, can potentially be useful for spatial and temporal assessment of landscape dryness. The final objective of the project was thus to explore the relationship between soil moisture and live fuel moisture content (LFMC) using the datasets from JASMIN and Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS), respectively. The analysis carried out indicates that soil moisture is a leading indicator of LFMC. This project developed a simple yet skilful model to predict live fuel moisture content for the whole of Australia.

The key variable is the 0-350 mm layer soil moisture derived from the JASMIN system. The modelling strategy pursued consists of a linear combination of two sub-models: one to capture the annual cycle and one to capture the daily variations. A time function represents the LFMC annual cycle model. The daily deviations in LFMC are captured by using a linear regression model with 14-day lagged daily deviations in soil moisture as the input. The daily changes in soil moisture are computed by deviations from its annual cycle.

When evaluated over 60 sites, the approach returned an average R2 of 0.64 with normalised root mean square error values of \<25\% at all sites. As researchers were employing a gridded soil moisture product, this strategy facilitates the reconstruction of past events, as well as data gap filling. The lag of 14 days implies a lead time of 14 days for predicting the LFMC. This has significant operational implications, as daily variations in LFMC can be predicted using soil moisture information from JASMIN on a national scale.

JASMIN is currently run as a prototype research system, with soil moisture analysis done only near-real-time. However, JASMIN can be extended to produce both real-time analysis and forecasts. The prognostic mode can provide soil moisture forecasts for up to 10 days. This means a maximum lead time of 24 days can be achieved by utilising soil moisture forecasts.

JASMIN utilisation

A key focus of the project from its inception was to create pathways for easier utilisation of the project deliverables. This is reflected in both the scientific and technical approaches adopted in this project. For example, the calibration of JASMIN to KBDI and SDI was done to facilitate the ready utilisation of JASMIN in the existing operational system. A total of 8 calibrated JASMIN soil dryness products were developed and made available through the Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s THREDDS server. The JASMIN soil moisture in volumetric units at 4 layers are also provided via the THREDDS server for interested parties to evaluate. The volumetric soil moisture fields from the top two JASMIN layers (0-100 mm and 100-350 mm) are available via AFMS as well.

The datasets on both THREDDS and AFMS are updated near-real-time. There is a continuing interest in the end-user community in utilising JASMIN for various fire management applications. In that respect, JASMIN has been assessed in the Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions study on tall wet forest fuel availability. Tasmania Parks and Wildlife has also been using JASMIN as a decision-support tool to restrict the use of open fires in national parks. Also, JASMIN data were updated specifically to assist with Tasmanian decision-making for 2018-19 seasonal bushfire assessment workshop and preseason consultative committee on fire weather.

The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture estimates over a wide range of land-use types and can support many applications that require accurate soil moisture information. However, there is still scope for improvements to the JASMIN system, whether it be the skill or the scale.

An immediate focus could be the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the skill of JASMIN. Data assimilation allows uncertainties in land surface model soil moisture to be offset to some extent by routinely updating the hydrological conditions using the information provided by observations on state variables used by land surface models. The assimilation of satellite observations is shown to improve the model soil moisture state. In that respect, the use of NASA{\textquoteright}s land information system (LIS) is being evaluated at the Bureau. The LIS is a complex framework that uses extensible interfaces to allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models, land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimisation algorithms. The extensible nature of these interfaces, and the component style specifications of the system, allow rapid prototyping and development of new applications. The JASMIN system can be incorporated within LIS to facilitate the assimilation of various observation types. Further, it can be leveraged to run JASMIN with an enhanced spatial resolution, desirably at 1 km.

}, keywords = {Floods, forecasts, heatwaves, land dryness, measures, mitigation, severe fire}, issn = {646}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-6989, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on individual income: a case study on the Brisbane River catchment area}, number = {577}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australians are all too familiar with disasters arising from natural hazards like bushfires, cyclones, and floods. With climate change, we face the possibility of more frequent and intense natural hazards in new and unexpected places.

As we enter an uncertain decade, we find ourselves increasingly asking: What does a disaster-resilient Australia look like? How can we help our most vulnerable Australian communities endure the cumulative effects of frequent disasters? Amid tightening fiscal budgets, how can we create the right environment for our communities and economy to prosper in this new reality?

Answering these questions requires some deep thinking about the collective actions needed to support our communities, businesses, and the broader economy to become more disaster resilient; to not only adapt to a {\textquotedblleft}new normal{\textquotedblright} but thrive in a changing climate. From a policy perspective, this becomes more pertinent when we consider that the average annual total economic costs of natural disasters of Australia are forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017),[1] and the fiscal constraints that will increasingly be imposed on government disaster expenditure by Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study on the Brisbane River Catchment Area report explores the impact of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on the income trajectory of employed residents of the four Brisbane River Catchment Area (BRCA) local government areas (LGAs) depicted in Figure 1.

The Queensland Floods 2010-11 remain one of Australia{\textquoteright}s costliest flooding events, causing an estimated $6.7 billion in tangible damages, with an overall cost of $14.1 billion (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a riverine-flooding in an Australian metropolitan economy on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities and post-disaster government assistance.

By focusing on individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through changes in their income stream), the report explores how disaster-induced economic shocks can be transmitted to individuals vis-{\`a}-vis income-earning channels, and offers a greater understanding of how indirect costs of disasters are borne by different segments of the workforce. Such costs are currently less known compared to direct damages reported in the immediate aftermath of disasters.

By examining the economic dimension of disaster resilience at the individual level, our research helps policymakers better understand the socioeconomics of natural disasters and formulate public policies in a sustainable way that better distributes scarce budgets and resources towards vulnerable socioeconomic groups and industries of employment that are more sensitive to disasters.

Recognising the profound and long-lasting psychosocial impacts of the floods, the report outlines the socioeconomic and disaster resilience profiles of the BRCA LGAs, and provides additional information to contextualise our assessment so that policymakers can holistically interpret our findings, within the broader social and economic conditions arising from the floods.\ 

Isolating the effects of the floods from other shocks that hit the BRCA LGAs is challenging. The report attempts to pinpoint observed income effects to the Queensland Floods 2010-11 by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares income changes of individuals living in the BRCA LGAs (treatment group) with those living in comparable zones in Australia (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group which provides us with the income path that would have occurred for BRCA LGA employed residents had the floods not happened, and thus enable us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arisfrom the floods. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the flood{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006-11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006-16.

While we develop the right modelling framework to capture income effects arising from the floods, data limitations have hampered our ability to statistically confirm that our control group is comparable to the BRCA LGA sample. The key implication is that our findings are not causal but correlational.

Nevertheless, our report{\textquoteright}s findings offer new and compelling insights on how disasters like the Queensland Floods 2010-11 interact with existing economic conditions and workforce compositions to affect individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {case study, disasters, economic resilience, Floods}, issn = {577}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beaini} } @article {bnh-6307, title = {Demographic profiling: Queensland floods 2010-11 Brisbane River catchment area case study}, number = {527}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Queensland Flood 2010-11 flood-affected Brisbane River catchment local government areas (LGAs):\ 

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project\ methodology) as well as official government reports for flood-related statistics.\ In presenting this information, we note that our demographic rofiling captures\ the overall population-level trends for these areas, which are affected by factors\ including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline\ of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of these areas both\ prior to (2006) and post the floods (2011, 2016).\ This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be\ released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Brisbane river, economic impact, Emergency management, flood safety, Floods, optimisation, risk analysis}, issn = {527}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @conference {bnh-6506, title = {Flood vulnerability functions: detailed vs generalised approach }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flood vulnerability functions for buildings (often called stage-damage functions) relate flood damage to the depth of inundation in the building. These functions are generally used in assessing flood risk and in evaluating cost-effective mitigation strategies for flood risk management. Flood vulnerability models are usually developed for a certain location by following empirical, analytical or heuristic procedures. They can be developed for a representative building type (detailed approach) or representing a mix of building types (generalised approach).

Geoscience Australia (GA) has developed a suite of flood vulnerability functions for a range of building types (detailed approach) that covers residential, commercial, industrial and community building land use types. These functions are best used in detailed micro level studies and are applicable to the highest resolution of building exposure information with flood vulnerability directly attributed to individual buildings.

This paper describes research with the National Flood Risk Advisory Group (NFRAG), the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR), state and local governments and industry to translate detailed vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers undertaking studies under the floodplainspecific management process as outlined in the AIDR Handbook, Managing the Floodplain: A Guide to Best Practice in Flood Risk Management.

This research derives generalised vulnerability functions for a mix of building and land use types. The generalised curves can be utilised at meso or macro level study and are intended to be applied at a resolution of built environment information readily available to floodplain managers.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {emergency management., Floods, land use, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-5804, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {507}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project titled {\textquotedblleft}Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves through the Improvements of Land Dryness Measures and Forecasts{\textquotedblright} examines the use of detailed land surface models,
satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project will address a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly
linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events.

Currently landscape dryness is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI; Keetch \& Byram 1968) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI; Mount 1972). An initial study performed as part of this project suggest that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation. The project has developed a stand-alone prototype land surface modelling system to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and at 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations show that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

The present report documents the activities undertaken in 2018-2019. A major focus for the year has been on the downscaling of soil moisture from the JASMIN system, enhancing the spatial resolution from 5 km to 1km. Applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. Another major outcome from the project during this year was the publication of a peerreviewed paper in the highly regarded Agriculture and Forest Meteorology journal.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fires, Floods, Forecasting, heatwaves, land dryness}, issn = {507}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Paul Fox-Hughes and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-6512, title = {The mitigation exercise: a long term mitigation planning process, with a coastal flooding case study in Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has had a cluster of research projects focused on economics and strategic decisions to improve mitigation since its commencement in 2013. A great deal of work has been done across the economic dimension looking at such issues as:
{\textbullet} risk ownership {\textbullet} non-market value of losses {\textbullet} tracking the impacts of disasters as they ripple through sectors of the economy {\textbullet} land use planning policies for reducing losses

These projects seek to present end-users, emergency management agencies and organisations, as well as recovery agency and other relevant departments such as planning and treasury, with more accurate insights into the potential losses from disasters.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {coastal, Emergency management, Floods, mitigation, risk management, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ed Pikusa} } @article {bnh-6056, title = {Floods, bushfires and sectoral economic output in Australia, 1978-2014}, journal = {Economic Record}, volume = {95}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, pages = {58-80}, abstract = {

Using state-level annual variation in natural disasters and economic output in Australia, we estimate the direct effects of floods and bushfires on sectoral gross value added during the period 1978{\textendash}2014. We find that floods exert an adverse and persistent effect on the outputs of agriculture, mining, construction and financial services sectors. For example, our estimates indicate that a state that experienced a flood in a given year encountered, on average, 5{\textendash}6 per cent lower agricultural output in both that year and the following year, compared to another state with no such flood experience. Sectoral responses to bushfires are more nuanced.

}, keywords = {economic, Floods, Natural hazards}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12446}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12446}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Muhamman Rahman and Yasin Onder and Chen, Yang and Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-4686, title = {Motivations and experiences of sheltering in place during floods: Implications for policy and practice}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {7}, chapter = {781}, abstract = {

Whilst much research considers evacuation behaviours during floods and other natural hazard events, and how to motivate greater compliance to evacuation orders, there is little research documenting peoples{\textquoteright} reasons for, and experiences of, sheltering at their home or business during floods. Focusing on the experiences of residents and business owners who sheltered during a major flood event, this study explores the motivations for staying during floods, residents{\textquoteright} practices while sheltering, and the attendant challenges and impacts. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were conducted with residents and business owners in the Richmond, Brunswick and Tweed river catchments in New South Wales in the months following an extensive flood event in 2017. The research identified a culture of sheltering during floods in these communities that is passed down through families and communities. Nuanced personal and locally specific factors influenced decisions to shelter, and official warnings and evacuation orders were often considered inaccurate or too late, or disregarded due to {\textquoteleft}warning fatigue{\textquoteright}. Findings also reveal that sheltering can be physically and psychologically challenging, and often involves actively defending people, property, and possessions from floodwaters. This study highlights the critical importance of context to understanding sheltering decisions, and consequently, the need for nuance in emergency management responses and risk communication. It also shows the importance of understanding what sheltering involves and its impacts, particularly given increasing pressure to urbanise and develop flood plains.

}, keywords = {beaviour, communities, emergency management., Evacuation, Floods, response, risk communication}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918304345}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Ashley Avci and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Coates, Lucinda} }