@article {bnh-7900, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling {\textendash} final project report}, number = {650}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events as publications; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI); and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has delivered across several activities:

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has provided fire and meteorology expertise during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications.\  However, it successfully realises the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The operational support capability is recognised and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau.

To complete the project we will finalise publication of the draft papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature; this will expand the international body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies.\ 

We are pleased to bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge on fire and atmosphere interactions.\  We have also delivered an important capability in ACCESS-Fire that can provide ongoing benefit to the field of meteorology and fire prediction and to the Australian community into the future.

In the coming months we will continue our conversations with partners and end-users to establish plans for future use and development of ACCESS-Fire as the BNHCRC transitions to the new Disaster Resilience Research Institute.\ \  ACCESS-Fire is an important research tool and has the potential to be a critical operational tool. It will assist in informing fire management decisions as we face increasingly hazardous scenarios in a changing climate.

}, keywords = {coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {650}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-7574, title = {A Computational Tool for Ground-Motion Simulations Incorporating Regional Crustal Conditions}, journal = {Seismological Research Letters}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, abstract = {

This article introduces a computational tool, namely ground-motion simulation system (GMSS), for generating synthetic accelerograms based on stochastic simulations. The distinctive feature of GMSS is that it has two independently developed upper-crustal models (expressed in the form of shear-wave velocity profiles), which have been built into the program for deriving the frequency-dependent crustal factors, and one of these models was originally developed by the authors. GMSS also has provisions to allow the user to specify their own preferred crustal profile. Sufficient details of both crustal models (forming part of the seismological model) and the accelerogram simulation methodology are presented herein in one article, to allow any person who has programming skills (on a user-friendly platform such as MATLAB, see\ Data and Resources), to develop their computational tools to implement any further innovations in crustal modeling for direct engineering applications. Crustal properties deep into bedrock can only be accounted for implicitly by conventional ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) as much depends on the region where the ground motion was recorded. This limitation of existing GMPEs poses a challenge to engineering in regions that are not well represented by any strong-motion database. Toward the end of this article, readers are enlightened with the potential transdisciplinary utility of using GMSS, to facilitate the retrieval and scaling of accelerograms sourced from a database of real earthquake records through the construction of a conditional mean spectrum.

}, keywords = {Computational tool, modelling, seismic}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200222}, url = {https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-abstract/doi/10.1785/0220200222/592863/A-Computational-Tool-for-Ground-Motion-Simulations?redirectedFrom=fulltext}, author = {Yuxiang Tang and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang} } @article {bnh-7509, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: ACCESS-Fire {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {630}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has been on several aspects:

  1. ACCESS-Fire has been installed on NCI and substantial investment has been made in testing and developing the model
  2. A meteorological case study of the Waroona fire has been published, which generated outreach activities across numerous agencies and jurisdictions.
  3. ACCESS-Fire has been run on two fires: the Waroona fire in WA and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW. A draft of the results of the Waroona simulations has been prepared and analysis and manuscript outline of the Sir Ivan simulations is well underway.
  4. Operational support was requested by fire agencies and the Bureau during high-impact events during the 2019-20 fire season. Support was provided in CFS and SES in SA, RFS in NSW and QFES in QLD during the protracted fire campaigns.
  5. A draft of the paper {\textquoteleft}Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright} has been prepared.

The project has continued to participate strongly in outreach activities, including media engagement through extended radio interviews and collaboration on print and online news articles.\  Conference presentations, high level training presentations and panel participation on topics including fire science, High Performance Computing, STEM careers and Women in Leadership have been attended.

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has repeatedly applied that knowledge in critical focus during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications. \ However, it demonstrates successful realization of the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The capability is recognized and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau; value that is evidenced by the repeated requests to provide high-level fire and meteorological interpretation inside operations.\ 

We therefore thank BNHCRC for their understanding in allowing flexible deadlines and repeatedly negotiating project timelines and deliverables, as this flexibility to shifting priorities has enabled the project team to provide operational support when it was needed.

Our focus for the remainder of the project is to complete advanced drafts of the papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature and expand the body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies. \ We will also share the results with a range of audiences through three online presentations and recordings during which we intend to develop presenting experience in more junior members of the project team.

These objectives may be challenging, due to the need to work from home during the Coronavirus pandemic and the need to be flexible with plans.

We are confident that we will bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge, analysis techniques and software that can benefit the field of meteorology and fire prediction and the Australian community into the future.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {630}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-6822, title = {Effect of relative humidity on grassfire propagation}, number = {561}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The relative humidity of air is directly related to fuel moisture. Fuel moisture is often considered as the index of flammability in the context of bushfires. Variation of relative humidity and fuel moisture is considered to have a significant effect on the rate of spread of grassfire propagation and fire intensity. In this study, two sets of grassfire simulations have been conducted: one set with 0.21m grass and another set with 0.175m grass. For both sets the ambient temperature was kept constant while the relative humidity and fuel moisture were varied, with fuel moisture deduced from the McArthur MKIII-V GFDI model. A lower relative humidity was observed to lead to higher fire intensity and a faster rate of spread, which are intuitively expected. Froude number analysis showed that relative humidity can lead to change in the fire propagation mode (wind driven vs buoyancy driven), but the greater factor appears to be grass height (fuel load).

}, keywords = {grassfire, modelling, propagation, relative humidity}, issn = {561}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Tehmina Khan and Duncan Sutherland} } @article {bnh-6811, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation - Annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {559}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster. Specifically, the report summarises progress of the first year of the second phase of the project, which has been extended over 2018-2021.

All milestones from the 2015-2018 phase of the project have now been delivered, and the project is continuing to build upon this work in delivering important insights into the dynamics of fire behaviour and fire line interaction. Phase 2 of the experimental program is in progress, and will extend recently published work from Phase 1. The project continues to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights are enhancing our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to develop the pyrogenic potential model by incorporating the effects of pyrogenic vorticity. This has resulted in the world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread using a two-dimensional simulation framework. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations continue to provide fundamental insights that will be drawn upon to inform further the development of the pyrogenic potential model.

In the past year, the project team have delivered a number of research outputs, including conference presentations and posters and a journal publication (currently under review). A number of other publications are in preparation. The project team has also delivered on a number of key utilisation activities. These have mainly involved discussions with key end-users about the prospects of the research being incorporated into education materials and training resources for firefighters and fire behaviour analysts.

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular, this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on schedule.

}, keywords = {experimentation, fire coalescence, modelling, simulation, spot fire dynamics}, issn = {559}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-7495, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation {\textendash} annual project report 2019-2020}, number = {625}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster. Specifically, the report summarises progress of the first two years of the second phase of the project, which has been extended over 2018-2021.

All milestones from the 2015-2018 phase of the project have now been delivered, and the project is continuing to build upon this work in delivering important insights into the dynamics of fire behaviour and fire line interaction. Phase 2 of the experimental program is in progress, and will extend recently published work from Phase 1. The project continues to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights are enhancing our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to develop the pyrogenic potential model by incorporating firebrand dynamics. This has resulted in the world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread using a two-dimensional simulation framework with a spotting module. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. The research has also examined how wind-terrain interaction influences ember trajectories and the likely distribution of spot fires down wind of complex terrain.

In the past year, the project team have delivered a number of research outputs, including conference presentations and posters and journal publications. Still more publications are in preparation. The project team has also delivered on a number of key utilisation activities. These have mainly involved discussions with key end users about the prospects of the research being incorporated into education materials and training resources for firefighters and fire behaviour analysts. The project has also begun working on a dedicated utilisation project aimed at development of spot fire spatial mapping tools.

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular, this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on-schedule.

}, keywords = {experimentation, fire coalescence, mass spot fire dynamics, modelling, simulation}, issn = {625}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew and Badlan, R} } @article {bnh-7030, title = {Model predictions for fuel reduction burning of eucalypt open forest in the greater Blue Mountains region}, number = {587}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Prescribed burns are a land management tool used for reducing fuel loads in terrestrial ecosystems. Under extended drier, hotter weather conditions they might be used increasingly and more widely to help manage risk of wildfire and subsequent damage to life, property and natural assets. They also represent a form of disturbance to ecosystems, including their biodiversity and biogeochemistry. From a biogeochemistry perspective, we apply the FullCAM carbon accounting model to eucalypt open forest sites in the greater Blue Mountains region that underwent prescribed burns and fieldwork campaigns in 2019. Field data were used to derive values and estimates that guided model calibration and helped to explore the suitability of FullCAM for simulating the effect of prescribed burning on this ecosystem type. The diameter at breast height of overstorey and understorey trees, leaf area index and surface litter fractions were key measurements for estimating production, allocation, turnover (litter input to surface debris) and breakdown (output from surface debris) of carbon pools of forest components and hence, for calibrating FullCAM. Measurements for paired burnt/unburnt plots were key to estimating loss of carbon from forest component pools to the atmosphere due to prescribed fire. Simulation of unburnt forest component pools were reasonable as a calibration, although improvements in simulating fractions of surface litter would probably improve simulations of the effect of prescribed fire on forest component pools. Recommendations related to collection of field data and to model structure are made to improve alignment between model-data comparisons.

}, keywords = {Blue Mountains, eucalypt, Fuel reduction burning, modelling, open forest, predictions}, issn = {587}, author = {David Pepper and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell and Danica Parnell} } @article {bnh-6736, title = {Modeling Vorticity-Driven Wildfire Behavior Using Near-Field Techniques}, journal = {Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, abstract = {

Dynamic modes of fire propagation present a significant challenge for operational fire spread simulation. Current two-dimensional operational fire simulation platforms are not generally able to account for the complex interactions that drive such behaviors, and while fully coupled fire-atmosphere models are able to account for dynamic effects to an extent, their computational demands are prohibitive in an operational context. In this paper we consider techniques for extending two-dimensional fire spread simulators so that they are able to simulate certain dynamic fire behaviors. In particular, we consider modeling vorticity-driven lateral spread (VLS), which is characterized by rapid lateral fire propagation across steep, leeward slopes. Specifically, we consider modeling the influence of the fire on the local surface airflow via a {\textquotedblleft}pyrogenic potential{\textquotedblright} model, which allows for vertical vorticity effects (in a near-field sense) using the Helmholtz decomposition. The ability of the resulting model to emulate fire propagation associated with VLS is demonstrated using a number of examples.

}, keywords = {Fire, fire-atmosphere, modelling, vorticity-driven lateral spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2019.00069}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmech.2019.00069/full}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton} } @conference {bnh-6410, title = {ACCESS-Fire: coupled fire-atmosphere modelling}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Coupled models are a class of fire prediction models that integrate a fire component with an atmospheric component, to examine how the energy released by a fire modifies the surrounding atmosphere. Coupled models can resolve complex interactions between the fire, topography and atmosphere, which subsequently manifest on fire behaviour. Results from simulations promote understanding of the driving processes in dynamic fire events. This can inform development of predictive tools that may be used to anticipate extreme fire behaviour and mitigate against the impacts of significant fires.

Globally, several coupled models have been developed; mostly by meteorological institutions for application in a research capacity. They can be broadly separated as taking either physical or empirical modelling approaches. We are running ACCESS-Fire; an empirical coupled model. It links the research version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to a set of empirically derived fire spread equations. In this presentation we will describe the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS Fire and report on progress on simulations of recent significant fire events.

In Australia and overseas, the imperative for accurate, flexible and timely predictions for prescribed (fuel reduction) burns and bushfires will only increase. Incorporating complex, dynamical meteorological fields is a critical component in building fire prediction systems that can resolve some of the most destructive elements of fire behaviour. Although coupled fire-atmosphere models are currently limited in producing timely operational output due to computational requirements, these restrictions will diminish as technology capabilities continue to increase.

}, keywords = {coupled models, Fire behaviour, fire-atmosphere, Forecasting, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @conference {bnh-6511, title = {A case study of South Australia{\textquoteright}s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

On September 28, 2016 one of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks recorded in South Australia impacted central and eastern parts of the state. Multiple supercell thunderstorms were embedded in a Quasi-Linear Convective System aligned with a strong cold front that was associated with an intense low-pressure system. The storms produced at least seven tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, large hail and intense rainfall. Transmission lines were brought down in four different locations, which contributed to a state-wide power outage.

Accurate prediction and understanding of tornadoes and other hazards associated with severe thunderstorms is very important, for timely preparation and announcement of warnings. By conducting high-resolution simulations, this study aims to offer a better understanding of the meteorology of the South Australian thunderstorm and tornado outbreak. It also contributes to improving knowledge of how to best predict similar severe weather events, which in turn enables better risk management and preparedness for such events. Updraft
helicity, a severe storm surrogate that indicates the potential for updraft rotation in simulated storms, is used to investigate the ability of the model to predict supercell and tornado likelihood.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {modelling, risk management, Severe Weather, thunderstorm, tornado}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Dragana Zovko-Rajak and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @article {bnh-5720, title = {Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modeling of Floods}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {55}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Flood modeling at the regional to global scale is a key requirement for equitable emergency and land management. Coupled hydrological-hydraulic models are at the core of flood forecasting and risk assessment models. Nevertheless, each model is subject to uncertainties from different sources (e.g., model structure, parameters, and inputs). Understanding how uncertainties propagate through the modeling cascade is essential to invest in data collection, increase flood modeling accuracy, and comprehensively communicate modeling results to end users. This study used a numerical experiment to quantify the propagation of errors when coupling hydrological and hydraulic models for multiyear flood event modeling in a large basin, with large morphological and hydrological variability. A coupled modeling chain consisting of the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byr{\r a}ns Vattenbalansavdelning and the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP was used for the prediction of floodplain inundation in the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), from 2006 to 2012. The impacts of discrepancies between simulated and measured flow hydrographs on the predicted inundation patterns were analyzed by moving from small upstream catchments to large lowland catchments. The numerical experiment was able to identify areas requiring tailored modeling solutions or data collection. Moreover, this study highlighted the high sensitivity of inundation volume and extent prediction to uncertainties in flood peak values and explored challenges in time-continuous modeling. Accurate flood peak predictions, knowledge of critical morphological features, and an event-based modeling approach were outlined as pragmatic solutions for more accurate prediction of large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of flood dynamics, particularly in the presence of low-accuracy elevation data.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, land management, modelling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024289}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR024289}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Guy Schumann and Ashkan Shokri and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-5775, title = {Coupled fire atmosphere modelling annual report 2018-2019}, number = {501}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project goal is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned project outcomes include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past three years has been on several fronts; 1) publication of a case study of the Waroona fire and related outreach activities 2) implementing, developing and testing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire 3) operational support during high-impact events and 4) draft of the paper {\textquoteright} Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright}.

}, keywords = {bushfire prediction, coupled-fire, fire behavour. fire impacts, modelling}, issn = {501}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @mastersthesis {bnh-7361, title = {Damage modelling of reinforced concrete bridge piers under flood and log impact}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australia has suffered from the loss of life and extreme damage to infrastructure from natural hazards such as bushfire, flood etc. Floods are Australia{\textquestiondown}s costliest disasters on bridges, one of the most important components of highway and railway transportation network. Therefore, safety and serviceability of bridges have always been a great concern to the practice and profession of civil engineering. The resilience of critical infrastructures such as roads and bridges is vital in evacuation support activities for during, before and after disaster response and recovery. In addition, bridges have a significant impact on the resilience of road infrastructure and the damage to bridges could significantly increase the vulnerability of the community served by the transportation infrastructure. Therefore, understanding the factors which affect the resilience of bridge structures, is extremely important to ensure the design specifications, as well as maintenance regimes for bridge structures. Furthermore, considering the resilience and vulnerability of structures is vital during, before and after disasters. Roads Corporation of Victoria (VicRoads) has identified that older structures consisting of U-slab decks are vulnerable to flood loading. The proposed project will focus on understanding damages to U-slab bridges exposed to flood loading.\ \ \ 
The vulnerable element of the case study U-slab bridges has been identified using a simplified analysis using Space-Gass. This analysis indicated that the superstructure of a U slab structure is quite robust under flood loading and slender piers can be vulnerable. Water flow pressure on the piers has been studied using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CDF) methodology to examine the pressure distribution on piers with two different cross-sectional shapes. This work has demonstrated that the pressure distribution on a bridge pier under flood loading can be simulated using a uniformly distributed load. Further, it is noted that the magnitude of the flood-induced force is significantly affected by the geometry of the pier cross-section.
Considering the concrete plasticity damage (CPD) modelling, nonlinear analysis has been conducted to evaluate the damage behaviour of the piers, and a simple damage index based on energy absorbed, which can be derived from a standard finite element modelling output, has been introduced. Based on that different damage levels of a bridge pier under flood loading damage indices have been derived.
Based on the review of practice and the literature review the log or moving object impact is likely to be occurring during flood loading. Therefore, a comprehensive investigation has been conducted to understand the structural response of a moving object impact, i.e., log impact. Using a validated model, the general relationship between different aspects of the structural response has been studied. Moreover, the bridge damage response during log impact has been studied, and the numerical results have been compared to provisions of different design standards. This study has concluded that the current provisions of design standards on the log or any moving object impact on bridges under flood loading could be unconservative and will require a systematic study considering the varying mass of impacts and the geometry of bridge piers.
}, keywords = {Bridge, engineering, Flood, modelling}, url = {https://researchrepository.rmit.edu.au/discovery/fulldisplay?docid=alma9921892810901341\&context=L\&vid=61RMIT_INST:ResearchRepository\&lang=en\&search_scope=ResearchETD\&adaptor=Local\%20Search\%20Engine\&tab=Research\&query=any,contains,Maryam\%20Nasim\&offset=0}, author = {Maryam Nasim} } @conference {bnh-6385, title = {Earthquake Management Logistics for York, WA, Pre and Post Mitigation}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

Rare Australian earthquake events can cause extensive damage and present significant logistical challenges for emergency management agencies and local governments. Evidence of this can be seen from recent earthquake events that include the 2010 Kalgoorlie earthquake and the 1989 Newcastle earthquake of 30 years ago. Emergency managers do not experience damaging earthquakes on the same regular basis as storms, floods, and bushfires and therefore don{\textquoteright}t always fully understand the consequences they may face. Scenario modelling can provide insights to inform response and recovery by emergency management and recovery agencies as well as demonstrate how these impacts can be moderated by the retrofit of the most vulnerable building types.

The Shire of York is partnering with the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the University of Adelaide and Geoscience Australia in a collaborative project that explores the current earthquake risk in the heritage town of York, Western Australia, and how the risk could be moderated through targeted retrofit. The project forms part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. This paper describes the approach taken and the predicted consequences modelled for a range of credible earthquake scenarios. Significantly, based on the recommendations from a stakeholder workshop in York on the 9thAugust 2018, it is also assessing how these consequences would be moderated in future decades through two rates of retrofit uptake in the town. This work is informing emergency management planning by DFES and the Shire of York. It is also illustrating the benefits of targeted community level retrofit to address the risk posed by the community building types most vulnerable to earthquakes.

}, keywords = {earthquake, Emergency management, modelling, retrofit, senario}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/70-Hyeuk-Ryu.pdf}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards and Martin Wehner and Stephen Gray and Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen} } @conference {bnh-6411, title = {Fire weather and prototype fire danger ratings for the Gell River fire, Tasmania}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We provide a preliminary analysis of the meteorology of key aspects of the Gell River fire in Tasmania during late December 2018 and early January 2019, including the lightning storm that ignited the fire, and conditions on 4 January 2019, when the fire increased substantially in size. We also briefly assess the performance of the Australian National Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) Research Prototype available on 4 January against observations of fire spread and routine McArthur Forest Fire Danger forecasts.

The Gell River fire occurred within a context of declining October {\textendash} April rainfall in western Tasmania over the last two decades, in comparison to the average rainfall for the period since 1900 (Fig. 1, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2018)). It was one of several large fires that competed for fire management resources over an extended period during the 2018-2019 Tasmanian fire season. The fire impacted natural values including those of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) and risked spreading into parts of the iconic Mt Field National Park, as well as threatening a number of communities in the Derwent Valley, particularly Maydena. The Gell River fire also threatened major electrical transmission infrastructure connecting the large Gordon-Pedder power generation facility in the west of Tasmania to population centres in the east, and burnt approximately 500 ha of a 5,000 ha pine plantation. On 4 January, thick smoke from the fire crossed over the Greater Hobart area, sparking concern and raising awareness within the wider community about the fire activity (Fig. 2).

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, Fire weather, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Stuart Matthews and Chris Collins and Saskia Grootemaat and Jennifer J Hollis and Alexander Holmes and Belinda Kenny and John Runcie and Samuel Sauvage} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6661, title = {Foresight for risk {\textendash} using scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Disaster impacts around the world are increasing with 2011 and 2017 the largest on record in terms of total losses from disasters in recorded history (USD 444billion and USD 341billion, respectively). The reasons for the increase in losses are multiple. Climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of several natural hazard types, and as the world{\textquoteright}s population and economy grow, and humans increasingly develop in areas exposed to natural hazard (e.g. along rivers, and coastal areas), the values exposed are also rapidly increasing. These multiple factors contribute to the complex nature of disaster risk, which is considered to be the combination of natural hazard intensity and extent, exposure (assets, people, other values), and vulnerabilities of the exposed values to the characteristics of the hazards. This can be considered the risk triangle {\textendash} hazard, exposure and vulnerability {\textendash} and each of these factors change into the future impacted by a range of drivers; population and economic change, technology, urbanisation rates, political actions etc.

To reduce the impacts of disasters, risk management and reduction activities are designed and implemented, and are typically underpinned by risk assessments. Risk assessments use qualitative and/or quantitative approaches to attempt to characterise the likelihood and impact of disaster types for a region or organisation. Currently, risk assessments do not capture future changes across all dimensions of risk in a manner that provides insight into the strategic threats and opportunities of emergent disaster risks. Therefore, there is a need for approaches to consider realistic degrees of complexity within the disaster risk system and account for the uncertainty in emergent risk. By capturing this within disaster risk assessments, treatment options can be developed and tested that strategically manage these risks over time.

This research has developed these approaches and provides three key contributions through the use of foresight, primarily scenarios within disaster risk assessment processes, to support effective policy and investment decision making to reduce future impacts. The thesis is organised around three publications, all contributing to the development of a generic framework which integrates foresight into disaster risk management and specific approaches to develop and use scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk. The first paper (Chapter 2) proposes and demonstrates this generic framework for the incorporation of the principles of foresight into risk assessment and management processes. The second paper (Chapter 3) focuses on the design of scenarios to support policy making for disaster risk reduction through several improvements to the methodological approach for constructing relevant and challenging scenarios using an {\textquotedblleft}outcomes of interest{\textquotedblright} framing. The third paper (Chapter 4) outlines and applies an approach for the use of exploratory scenarios within quantitative disaster risk assessment through the development of alternative pathways of disaster risk using scenarios and integrated risk models.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, Foresight, modelling, Risk assessment, Scenarios}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/122575}, author = {Graeme Riddell} } @conference {bnh-6399, title = {Improving flood forecasting skill using remotely sensed data}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This paper presents research undertaken to develop and implement a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model which utilises remotely sensed data to improve flood forecasting skill in rural catchments subject to fluvial flooding. The discussion of literature reviews and subsequent knowledge gaps aids in the identification of key obstacles towards implementation. Collected data and modelling algorithms developed as part of the project are described before an overview of the progress towards implementation is given. To maximise the potential utilisation of this research end-users have been involved in providing data, setting up case studies, and defining research priorities and methods.

}, keywords = {catchments, Flood, Forecasting, hydraulic, hydrological, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ashley Wright and Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-5619, title = {Modelling emissions from prescribed burning using FULLCAM}, number = {479}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is a software tool developed by the Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy as a standard method for carbon accounting. It is primarily used as a means to report national\ greenhouse gas dynamics from the land sector due to anthropogenic activities. This\ study assessed the accuracy and usefulness of FullCAM in determining the mass of carbon (C) emissions produced from prescribed burning. FullCAM proved to be a simple and reasonably reliable method for estimating C emissions from prescribed burning activities and for tracking recovery of C pools related to forest ecosystems. In addition, C emissions from different prescribed burning scenarios and from wildfire can be easily compared. The FullCAM model can be used by land managers as a means to manage an important aspect of risk associated with planned burning. If land managers are required to perform C accounting activities in the future, the adoption of FullCAM will enable them to be compatible with the national standard of carbon accounting.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emissions, FullCAM, modelling, Prescribed burning}, issn = {479}, author = {Senani Karunaratne and Malcolm Possell and David Pepper and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-4998, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour}, number = {417}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Flame spread is an important process in the propagation of bushfires. The likelihood of ignition and combustion rates of fuels are dependent on the type and nature of the heat flux. The majority of previous research has used static heat flux, whereby a consistent heating source is used to ignite samples in a laboratory setting. This is despite the highly dynamic heating regimes typically observed during structural and wildland fires.

}, keywords = {Fire, fire behaviour., fire modelling, fire severity, modelling}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-4819, title = {Simulation of fuel bed ignition by wildland firebrands}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, abstract = {

A 3-D mathematical model of fuel bed (FB) ignition initiated by glowing firebrands originating during wildland fires is proposed. In order to test and verify the model, a series of experiments was conducted to determine the FB ignition time by a single pine bark and twig firebrand (Pinus sylvestris). Irrespective of the pine bark sample sizes and experimental conditions, the ignition of the FB was not observed. Conversely, pine twigs, under certain parameters, ignited the FB in the range of densities (60{\textendash}105 kg m-3) and with the airflow velocity of >=2 m s-1. The results of the mathematical modelling have shown that a single pine bark firebrand <=5 cm long with a temperature of T <= 1073 K does not ignite in the flaming mode the FB, and only the thermal energy of larger particles is sufficient for flaming ignition of the adjacent layers of the FB. The analysis of the results has shown that the firebrand length is a major factor in the initiation of ignition. Comparison of the calculated and observed FB ignition times by a single firebrand have shown that our modelling accords well with the experimental results.

}, keywords = {critical conditions, experiment, ignition, modelling, spotting.}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17083}, author = {O. V. Matvienko and D. P. Kasymov and Alex Filkov and O. I. Daneyko and D. A. Gorbatov} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6633, title = {Understanding Wildfire Patterns in the South-Eastern Australia}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, school = {University of New South Wales}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Wildfires affect ecological processes, threaten human lives and cause economic losses. Understanding of fire patterns is required to better support the planning of sustainable fire management and risk reduction activities. Fire occurrence and fire size are two essential fire pattern components that describe the distribution of fires and the impacts of fires on landscapes and ecosystems. They vary substantially within and between regions due to variation in weather, fuel, topography and ignition sources. In this thesis, remotely sensed and administrative records as well as Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models have been used to understand fire occurrence patterns in the south-eastern part of Australia, as well as to obtain knowledge on the patterns of fire occurrence and fire size in the inland semi-arid riverine area.The results suggest that in the south-eastern Australia, wildfires are more likely to occur in mountainous areas, forests, savannas, and in areas with high vegetation coverage and near human infrastructures, while they are less likely to occur on grasslands and shrublands. Environmental variables are strong individual predictors while anthropogenic variables contribute more to the final model. Fire-ignition drivers and their effects vary across ecoregions. There are non-linear relationships between the probability of fire ignition and some of its drivers e.g. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.This study also reveals that on the NSW side of the Riverina bioregion, human-caused fires mostly occur in spring and summer while natural fires are clustered in summer. Forested wetlands and dry lands experience summer and spring-summer fire regime, respectively. Fire probabilities are higher in forested wetlands than in dry lands and in areas with intermediate inundation frequencies. Weather, fuel and ignition sources are comparably important in regulating human-caused ignitions, while weather contributes more than fuel in driving natural ignitions. Larger-size Fires that burned Entirely in forested Wetlands (FEW) are associated with higher ambient rainfall conditions of the 6th, 13-14th and 17-18th months before fires. Fire danger index is more powerful than other ambient weather factors in explaining the FEW size. The contributing and the most effective factors become different when fires burned in dry lands are incorporated.

}, keywords = {fire occurrence patterns, modelling, risk reduction, wildfires}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?vid=UNSWORKS\&docid=unsworks_51121\&context=L}, author = {Yang, Zhang} } @article {bnh-6663, title = {Business exposure information framework}, number = {542}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire and Natural Hazards are features of the Australian climate and landscape and the threats will continue (COAG, 2011). These hazards can have profound personal, social, economic and environmental impacts. The impacts of these disasters demand the need to advance the efforts of planning, preparation, response and recovery to improve community resilience. Disaster management is a collective responsibility of all levels of government, society, businesses and individuals. For disaster resilience, emergency management planning should consider risk and risk treatments across the built, economic, social and environmental assets (COAG, 2011). Exposure {\textquotedblleft}what is at risk{\textquotedblright} information is fundamental for assessing risk from natural hazards and therefore nationally consistent information is required for evidence based prioritising and targeting interventions. To address this, consistent methodologies and frameworks are required to enable information sharing and accurate interpretation.

In natural hazards and disasters decision making Exposure is a key component and constitutes people, buildings, infrastructure (transport, energy, communications and water), businesses, hazardous substances, primary and major industries. This report is an outcome of research funded by Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC to develop an {\textquotedblleft}Australian Natural Hazards Business Exposure Information Framework{\textquotedblright}. The framework is aimed at supporting the development of nationally consistent and centralised business and economic exposure information to enable the decision making in disaster management to the evidence based. This research has reviewed the current literature and information providers; engaged end users and researchers for future requirements, and conducted a gap analysis.

The literature review has helped to understand the relevant practices and future trends at international, national, regional and local levels. In particular, the review highlighted the business and economic exposure data requirements to enable researchers to develop models for better impact analysis.

The project has conducted an on-line survey of existing exposure information capabilities in Australia to ascertain existing data and information capabilities for disaster response and recovery. Overall a lack of national consistency in existing data and information capabilities is a limiting factor in evidence based decision making.

The project also conducted a Stakeholder Engagement Workshop with an aim to identify the exposure information needs of researchers and other end users in Australia. The workshop provided an opportunity for thirty six participants representing decision makers, emergency managers, planners, researchers, asset managers and the insurance sector to outline their future requirements. The collective views of data managers, researchers and end users have informed the basis for exposure information\  requirements to develop a consistent, standardised exposure information framework that will support vulnerability assessments for disaster risk reduction and socio-economic impact analysis.

Information on some exposure elements is critical for some end users and may not be of interest for others. To reduce the complexity, the framework categorises the information provision into three levels depending on user requirements such as policy and planning; response and recovery; and research and analysis. Australian Natural Hazards Exposure Framework (ANHEF) levels and their aims, description and boundaries are outlined in Built Environment Exposure Information Framework Report. There is some fundamental information and common elements that underpins the entire exposure framework such as spatial enablement; land use categorisation; insurance status and metadata outlined in Built Environment Exposure Information Framework Report.

The business exposure information framework presents the exposure elements required to develop information systems to support the impact analysis of both micro-economic (business sectors) and macro-economic (regional) for disaster risk reduction from a variety of natural hazards. The micro-economic variables considered in the framework include business entity, type, size, operations, space usage, workforce and input requirements. Whereas the macro-economic variables include the size and performance of the economy, industry sectors and labour force characteristics to assess the local economy.

The document outlines a generic framework to underpin the utilisation and is focused on end user requirements. The report identifies a list of exposure elements across different components of the business and economic activity that are presented in the summary tables.

}, keywords = {business exposure, disaster, framework, modelling, risk reduction}, issn = {542}, author = {Krishna Nadimpalli and Itismita Mohanty and Mohsen Kalantari and Abbas Rajabifard} }