Understanding and Mitigating Hazards

COMMISSIONED RESEARCH

Project Status:

This project was commissioned and funded entirely by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Victoria.

This project was commissioned and funded entirely by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Victoria. 

The moisture content of dead vegetation, including the litter layer and material suspended in the understory, is one of the main determinants of fuel combustibility and also a significant variable in predicting fire behaviour. Fuel moisture is driven by interactions between fuels, weather, and topography. This project is developing the tools necessary to predict the combustibility of forest fuels in the Australian landscape as a result of changes in fuel moisture content through the drying and wetting of fuels via exposure to the weather and sun. In particular, existing point-based models will be adapted for spatial applications and validated using experimental measurements in native forest landscapes in Victoria.  These predictive tools will form the basis of operational tools for a new modular fire danger system and will be suitable for application in planning of prescribed burning operations.

The project will achieve this objective by:

  • Integration of existing fuel moisture models into an existing spatial modelling framework developed by CSIRO, the Dynamic Landscape Simulator (DLS) (Roxburgh et al 2010) to provide a platform for making high resolution predictions. The Koba moisture model will be nested inside the DLS. The DLS will simulate landscape scale soil, water, and forest processes, while Koba will make moisture predictions. Koba and the DLS have previously been tested in Australian forests.
  • Making experimental measurements of fuel moisture along transects in forests to examine seasonal wetting and drying patterns. Transect(s) will be established that cover a range of key forest environments (e.g. woodland on ridge tops through to rainforest gullies) to track seasonal variation in fuel availability. These measurements will be used to test and develop representation of key physical processes in the fuel moisture models. Adequate representation of these processes is key to predicting landscape fuel availability and connectivity for spread of large fires. Measurements will be made in Victoria to ensure that the resulting models are applicable in Victorian conditions. Where possible we will also work in cooperation with land managers to collect additional data to broaden the reach of the model validation data set.
  • Making experimental measurements of fuel moisture around local topography (e.g. north vs south facing slopes) in summer conditions to examine diurnal variation and validate solar radiation processes. Adequate representation of local variation in dry conditions is necessary for prediction of fire behaviour and local variation in fire threat. For example, variation in fuel moisture with aspect lead to unexpected fire behaviour and the deaths of fire crews conducting a prescribed fire in Kuringai National Park in 2000.
  • Developing methods for application of fuel moisture predictions at a range of scales, from high resolution predictions for fire behaviour models to coarse fuel availability predictions for use with state-wide weather grids.

The project will be divided into two phases, each lasting one year. The first will perform the high resolution model integration and make initial field measurements for model testing. The second will refine the models – including developing methods to scale predictions from the high resolution model (10's of m) to the scale of operational forecasts grids (~ 6 km), make more extensive field measurements for model validation, and develop guidelines for model implementation and application. The major outputs of the project will be predictive tools and guidelines for their operational application as well as data sets collected during the field campaigns.

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