Science expertise helps Queensland

With catastrophic fire conditions experienced for the first time in Queensland and multiple bushfires raging across the state in November 2018, CRC science was on hand to help combat the flames.

By Gabriel Zito. This article orignally appeared in Issue Two 2019 of Fire Australia.

To say it was a busy summer in Queensland is probably an understatement. Bushfires, cyclones and floods—the sunshine state has had more than its fair share of natural hazards over the last six months. Cyclones and floods are pretty common, with Queenslanders more accustomed to dealing with the lashing winds, driving rains and rising waters than the threat of disastrous bushfires. But bushfires, and lots of them, was what faced Queensland in November and December 2018.

These fires, which occurred up and down the east coast, including tropical areas, were some of the worst Queensland has ever experienced. The ‘catastrophic’ fire danger rating was observed for the first time in the state, and with roughly 1,000 fires burning, the weather and fire conditions were simply unprecedented.

A heatwave affected Queensland’s north tropical and central coasts from 24 November. By November 26 it was apparent that the event was very likely to persist and that the coming days would see an increase in fire danger. Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) Manager of Predictive Services Andrew Sturgess realised that he needed outside assistance to help manage the unprecedented bad fire weather.

“I wanted the best science, the best communicators—the best people we absolutely could get to assist us,” Mr Sturgess explained.

The next morning he got in touch with Dr Mika Peace, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC researcher and fire weather meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology in South Australia. By that night, Dr Peace was in Brisbane at the QFES control centre.

The uniqueness of the weather that Queensland experienced across such a broad area was what was causing concern.

“We normally get short sharp spike days; we don’t have prolonged fire weather. We hadn’t had prolonged fire weather events like we did that week,” Mr Sturgess said.

This was where Dr Peace was able to provide her expertise.

“The demand for information was absolutely huge for meteorology information—the embedded meteorologist was really providing the high-levelled synoptic scale, big-picture state-wide weather scenarios,” Dr Peace said.

Dr Peace worked alongside fire behaviour analysts from QFES by providing pivotal data and information, mapping out likely scenarios of bushfire spread and analysing pressure points throughout the state.

“What I was doing was really drilling down to the fire level and looking at individual fires and talking about how the weather over the Gulf of Carpentaria was likely to affect fire behaviour on individual fires,” Dr Peace said.

Dr Peace’s specialised knowledge on fire weather gave QFES expert insight, particularly around the potential for pyrocumulonimbus (bushfire thunderstorms) to form, which can profoundly change the way bushfires behave.

Using the PHOENIX bushfire spread predictive model—initially developed by the University of Melbourne and the former Bushfire CRC—and working alongside QFES fire behaviour analysts, Dr Peace was able to input and map out likely scenarios of the thousands of fires across Queensland, analysing the ways in which they could potentially spread, providing a head start to QFES.

Dr Peace said that it is not just about understanding and being able to provide the weather information, but that it is more about seeing what the needs are of the emergency services and what their pressure points are so that the information provided can be tailored specifically to fit.

“A lot of research hasn’t formally made it into the operation decision process, but that doesn’t mean it can’t still be used during a major event. So much value can be added by having the knowledge available on the day.”

Campaign fires for Queensland.

The late November and early December period saw Queensland experience a campaign fire scenario, a first for the state. A campaign fire is one of the two usual types of fire situations seen in Australia, Dr Peace explained.

“The two different scenarios that we see in bushfires in Australia is one where you’ve got single fire events—those are probably some of our worst fire events in history—and then the other ones that we’ve got is campaign fire events, where you’ve got multiple fires in the landscape and they just keep burning for days to weeks on end,” explained Dr Peace.

“And what Queensland really had was a prolonged event, but then with what you would call a peak day right in the middle of it. And on those peak days it’s not just the fires that you have already got in the landscape, but the potential for new ignitions.

“A bad day in a campaign fire event is really one of the worsts scenarios,” Dr Peace said.

A wind change driven by a sweeping low pressure system led to the ‘catastrophic’ fire danger rating on 28 November, exacerbating the danger of the already-going blazes, but also providing the perfect weather conditions for more fires to break out.

The constantly varying wind conditions resulted in an actively changing fire front with potential for erratic smoke plume development to occur, driving extreme fire behaviour that further scattered embers and accelerated the rate at which the bushfires spread.

Value of science for emergency managers.

“The researchers and science tell us there is much more to fire behaviour than just the surface conditions and how important that is,” Mr Sturgess said.

And it is making this link between practitioners, like Mr Sturgess, and researchers, like Dr Peace, that the CRC thrives on. Facilitating information and data and knowledge transfer is what it is all about. Research findings that make it into operations are vital for practitioners, Mr Sturgess explained.

“The CRC gets different groups of users in the same room, talking and interacting so that we understand what the decision process is and what the important parts are for the fire behaviour analysts.

“In predictive services we try to engage with the scientists. I see us as a link between the science and operations.

“We talk to fire managers and firefighters directly and try to bring that science into operations to make it meaningful on the ground to support decision-makers.

“The importance of facilitating effective information to emergency personnel is such an essential part of the research at the CRC,” he said.

Dr Peace agrees that the value of the science, and in particular the CRC, provides practitioners with a greater depth of knowledge on which to base their decisions.

“It is an area that takes a long time to develop,” she explained. “It is not something that you can just teach people in a day or two at a training session because it is that multidisciplinary space and you need to understand the needs,” she said.

Dr Peace remarked on how the CRC put a lot of emphasis on networking and bringing people together. “That’s how Andrew and I know each other and if it wasn’t for things like the CRC’s networking events then the conversations and the phone calls wouldn’t have happened.

“That’s the CRC bringing people together and understanding each other’s needs.”

Dr Peace’s help with the bushfires was recognised alongside others from Queensland who assisted with the bushfires with an invitation from the Queensland Premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, to attend the Christmas Cabinet Reception.

To find out more about Dr Peace's research, go to https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/coupledfire