Examining bushfire policy and preparedness from Black Saturday

A key study has examined the effect that bushfire policy and preparedness has on behaviour during an extreme bushfire.

CRC researcher Prof John Handmer (RMIT University) and co-author Saffron O’Neill (the University of Exeter in the UK) have investigated the circumstances surrounding the 172 civilian fatalities which occurred during the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, with the results available in Examining bushfire policy in action: preparedness and behaviour in the 2009 Black Saturday fires in the Environmental Science and Policy journal. You can download a free version of the paper and the supplementary materials at the link above.

The study uses a unique and detailed fatality dataset compiled by the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, which includes police and forensic records, as well as testimony from family and friends of the victims. Using the data Prof Handmer and Dr O’Neill focus specifically on the Victorian ‘Stay or go’ bushfire safety policy in the context of Black Saturday.

The authors detail the assumptions of the ‘Stay or go’ policy such as awareness of fire risk, knowledge to mitigate that risk, capacity to actively defend ones property, the presence of a clear and detailed fire plan comprising behavioural intentions, and triggers for action. The actions taken by each of the 172 people who died were then compared with the intentions and assumptions of the policy.

Three key findings emerged from the analysis.

1. Some aspects of ‘Stay or go’ appear to be supported: being well-prepared to evacuate remains the safest option in a bushfire; sheltering passively is very dangerous.
2. Successful implementation of ‘Stay or go’ depends on a multitude of factors, which can challenge even the most capable householders.
3. Events like Black Saturday challenge the ‘Stay or go’ approach, and indicate the need for a different approach on extreme fire danger days.

The article also considers the findings of the research in relation to the most recent changes to bushfire policy in Victoria which includes the shift in emphasis to leaving early.

Prof Handmer leads the CRC project Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering. He is also involved in several other CRC projects that focus on the human aspects and policy surrounding disasters including Improving the role of hazard communications in increasing residents preparedness and response planning, Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy and planning and Child-centred disaster risk reduction.