Are we ready for cascading extreme hazards beyond our experience?

How would Australia cope if a long-running heatwave, drought and bushfire season were broken by an East Coast Low that causes widespread flooding along Australia’s east coast? While there are some similarities between this description and the last six months, this multi-hazard scenario was explored at the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference in June last year. The full report detailing the outcomes of the scenario and how Australia can reduce the impacts of similar cascading natural hazards is now available.

The conference moved away from the usual conference model with a series of expert panels and audience participation exploring the impacts of the complex cascading scenario and asking the questions – do we have the best knowledge to deal with this, and if not, what knowledge do we need and where will it come from? 

With an audience of 150 people from organisations across Australia and New Zealand with important roles to play in dealing with the impacts of natural hazards, the report outlines discussions had around the key areas: immediate response; climate, weather and the environment; resilient cities, communities and industries; lifelines and critical infrastructure; communication, education and behaviour; policy, economics and impact; risk vulnerability and insurance; and relief, recovery and mitigation.

Clear themes emerged during the conference, particularly around future workforce; leadership, politics and politicisation; planning and land use; risk, vulnerability and mitigation; technology; mass gathering events; and keeping businesses and communities viable. For each of these themes, important areas for consideration were identified. The scenario re-run at the conclusion of the conference identified clear steps that conference participants believe would reduce the impacts of similar cascading natural hazards were they to occur in the year 2035. 

Download the report, Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready? (2020) on the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference, and the accompanying scenario East Coast Low extreme weather scenario (2020).

A copy of the final report will be sent to all conference participants in coming weeks. 

What was the scenario?

The fictional scenario presented saw New South Wales experience a significant and prolonged drought and higher than normal temperatures, which limited prescribed burning in the lead up to the fire season. Multiple bushfires started and spread quickly, and while they were ultimately brought under control, houses were lost and significant environmental damage was incurred, including in water catchments. Just weeks later, an East Coast Low brought flash flooding, hail, storms and coastal erosion to NSW, directly hitting Sydney, with damage north to Newcastle and south to Wollongong. The scenario detailed a series of impacts: extreme flash flooding, communications failures, cracked high rise buildings, inundated car parks and significant disruption to Sydney shipping, airport, roads and public transport. It didn’t end there: central Sydney and the greater Sydney basin experience long power blackouts, and two days later, a severe hailstorm hit Bathurst with over 33,500 campers on site during the Bathurst 1000 V8 Supercar race, causing deaths and injuries.

How did the conference work?

Panelists at the conference were asked to look at the nature and scale of the events that unfolded and begin thinking about what can be done to reduce, minimise or avoid the impacts over the longer term. The program injected the latest research into panelists' thinking to see how current knowledge can shape decisions and minimise impacts should an event of this scale occur now or in the near future. The diverse backgrounds of the panelists enabled the conversations to involve many different sectors.

The conference was designed for audience participation: questions and comments entered by delegates appeared on the big screen and roving mics moved around each room as engaging discussions between panelists and participants unfolded.

Keynote addresses from Jo Horrocks, New Zealand Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, and Mark Crosweller, Australian National Resilience Taskforce in the Department of Home Affairs, provided an insight on the current national positions on disaster risk reduction. 

Animesh Kumar, from the Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, outlined the international context of disaster resilience, speaking on risk informed sustainable development, including financing disaster risk reduction and generating accountability.

A highlight was the opening welcome reception with guest speaker Rob de Castella, Director of the Indigenous Marathon Foundation. The champion marathon runner and former Director of the Australian Institute of Sport spoke to the role of sport in community recovery from natural hazards, drawing on his personal experiences of recovery after the Canberra bushfires of 2003.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC hosted the 2019 Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference in Canberra from 17 to 19 June. The event was sponsored by the Australian Government/Department of Home Affairs and supported by the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, and Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, which is part of the International Science Council and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

All presentations are available at http://bnhcrc.com.au/anhmc19