Seasonal predictions are being developed for the new Australian Fire Danger Ratings System. Photo: Sascha Grant, Flickr.
New seasonal prediction research is being developed with fire agencies for long-range planning and will be tested as part of the Australian Fire Danger Ratings System (AFDRS) ahead of its 2022 launch. This will provide fire agencies the most accurate information possible to prepare themselves and their communities for fire conditions ahead of time.
In a Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project led by Dr Andrew Dowdy (Bureau of Meteorology), researchers developed new capability for Australia by successfully predicting dangerous bushfire conditions weeks, months and whole seasons ahead, greatly extending the existing fire weather forecast capacity.
Dr Dowdy explained the benefits of these advancements towards more ‘seamless’ fire predictive services.
“This technology is also part of a broader aim to create seamless predictive services across different time scales, which will enhance fire agencies’ long-term planning capabilities and help make Australia more resilient to disasters,” he said.
Previously, long-range outlooks (released by the Bureau) used temperature and rain measures to predict fire danger, whereas this new technology combines measurements of humidity, wind, temperature, rain and vegetation moisture to create longer-range predictions of dangerous fire conditions.
The new technology also factors in large-scale weather variability (for example, El Niño patterns), sudden increases in stratospheric temperature (such as the polar vortex variation that contributed to the severity of the 2019/20 fire season) and long-term climate change trends.
The predictions that researchers developed throughout this project, combining all of these factors, were found to be consistent with observed weather conditions, making it a valuable addition to the guidance products now being used by fire agencies, as well as valuable for inclusion in the new AFDRS.
Rob Webb, Director – National Projects and Innovation at AFAC, explained the significance of this technology for keeping communities safe from bushfire.
“The research provided an important stepping stone for the new capabilities being developed within the AFDRS. Using the very latest Bureau of Meteorology models and the more detailed approach to bushfire fuels developed as part of the AFDRS, agencies will have better information to support important decisions before and during fire seasons,” he said.
“This seamless approach across all timescales will allow the best information to be used in keeping communities safe.”
This research is also being used as a guide when producing the Seasonal Bushfire Outlooks – a valuable industry resource that the CRC developed, which are now published by AFAC - to help guide public messaging about upcoming fire risk.
This research was funded through the Victorian Government’s Safer Together program, in partnership with the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (Vic), the Country Fire Authority (Vic) and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. It is the latest research to inform fire danger rating calculations in Australia, with the system incorporating CRC science over the last 18 years from both the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, and earlier Bushfire CRC.
The AFDRS is being designed to more accurately forecast fire danger in Australia. It is a national collaboration bringing together state, territory and federal governments and fire agencies. You can learn more about the AFDRS here.