Dr Kevin Tory

Researcher
communication, fire weather, severe weather
About
Dr Kevin Tory

Research team

Type Project Research team
CRC Core Project Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact ktory, dzovkorajak, david.wilke
Four aspects of our research
02/2022
Report
Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact – fi...
Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.,Ching,E.,Fawcett,R.,Schroeter,S.,Thurston,W.,Wilke,D.,Zovko-Rajak,D.
Himawari satellite image (left) during the afternoon of the most active moist pyro-convective day of the 2019/2020 season, 30 December 2019. The corresponding PFT flag forecast (right) shows the potential threat was well forecast. The fire locations are i
03/2020
Report
The real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold
Tory,K.J.
Pyrocumulonimbus clouds.
12/2020
Journal Article
Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: Assessing the atmospheric potent...
Tory,K.J.,Kepert,J.
A sample atmospheric sounding (thin red lines and wind barbs) applied to an F-160 thermodynamic diagram, with quantities required for the PFT calculation overlaid
03/2020
Report
Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact
Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.,Zovko-Rajak,D.,Wilke,D.,Schroeter,S.
Delegates at AFAC19, Melbourne.
12/2019
Conference Paper
Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: a pyrocumulonimbus prediction to...
Tory,K.J.
Delegates at AFAC19, Melbourne.
12/2019
Conference Paper
A case study of South Australia's severe thunderstorm and tornado...
Zovko-Rajak,D.,Tory,K.J.,Kepert,J.
12/2018
Report
Models of buoyant plume rise
Tory,K.J.
09/2017
Conference Paper
Extreme weather: improved data products on bushfires, thunderstorms, t...
Dowdy,A.J.,Ye,H.,Tory,K.J.,Evans,A.,Lavender,S.,Thatcher,M.,Rafter,T.,Osbrough,S.,Walsh,K.,Cavicchia,L.,Evans,J.P.,Catto,J.
09/2017
Report
Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact: mid...
Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.,Thurston,W.,Zovko-Rajak,D.,Ching,E.,Fawcett,R.
03/2017
Journal Article
The contribution of turbulent plume dynamics to long-range spotting
Thurston,W.,Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.
09/2017
Conference Paper
Thermodynamic considerations of pyrocumulus formation
Tory,K.J.,Thurston,W.,Kepert,J.
04/2016
Conference Paper
Large-eddy simulations of pyro-convection and its sensitivity to mosit...
Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.,Kepert,J.
05/09/2016
Report
Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact: Ann...
Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.,Thurston,W.,Ching,S.,Zovko-Rajak,D.,Fawcett,R.
04/2016
Conference Paper
Mesoscale features related to the Blue Mountains fires of 17 October 2...
Ching,S.,Fawcett,R.,Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Kepert,J.
08/2016
Conference Paper
The effects of turbulent plume dynamics on long-range spotting
Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.,Kepert,J.
04/2016
Conference Paper
Long-range spotting by bushfire plumes: The effects of plume dynamics...
Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.,Kepert,J.
11/2016
Report
Pyrocumulonimbus forecasting: needs and issues
Tory,K.J.,Peace,M.,Thurston,W.
06/2015
Report
Pyrocumulonimbus: A Literature Review
Tory,K.J.,Thurston,W.
Conference Paper
Large-eddy simulations of pyro-convection and its sensitivity to envir...
Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.,Kepert,J.
11/2015
Report
Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact: Ann...
Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.,Thurston,W.,Ching,S.,Fawcett,R.
02/2015
Conference Paper
The Effects of Fire-Plume Dynamics on the Lateral and Longitudinal Spr...
Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Kepert,J.,Fawcett,R.
Journal Article
Simulating boundary-layer rolls with a numerical weather prediction mo...
Thurston,W.,Fawcett,R.,Tory,K.J.,Kepert,J.
Conference Paper
Modelling the Fire Weather of the Coonabarabran Fire of 13 January 201...
Fawcett,R.,Yeo,C.,Thurston,W.,Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.
Presentation
Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community risk
Kepert,J.,Thurston,W.,Ching,S.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.
Conference Proceedings
Applications of Very High Resolution Atmospheric Modelling for Bushfir...
Kepert,J.,Fawcett,R.,Tory,K.J.,Thurston,W.
12/2013
Journal Article
A comparison of the fire weather characteristics of the Melbourne dus...
Fawcett,R.,Wain,A.,Thurston,W.,Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.
Conference Proceedings
The Eyre Peninsula Fire of 11 January 2005: an ACCESS case study
Fawcett,R.,Thurston,W.,Kepert,J.,Tory,K.J.
12/2013
Conference Paper
Large-eddy simulations of bushfire plumes in the turbulent atmospheric...
Thurston,W.,Tory,K.J.,Fawcett,R.,Kepert,J.
9/20/2006
Journal Article
Modelling the King Island bushfire smoke
Hess,G.D.,Tory,K.J.,Lee,S.,Wain,A.,Cope,M.E.
31 Aug 2020
Real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: A prediction tool for deep moist pyroconvection
communities, severe weather
Key findings: “The PFT provided very useful guidance to forecasters briefing emergency services.”
27 Aug 2019
A fast, physically based scheme for predicting long-range spotting potential
communication, severe weather
In extreme cases, embers transported in a bushfire plume have started new fires over thirty...
27 Aug 2019
Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: A pyroCb prediction tool.
communication, fire weather
Pyrocumulonimbus (fire-induced thunderstorms, pyroCb) are associated with unpredictable changes in...
A case study of South Australia's severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak (28 September 2016)
19 Sep 2018
A case study of South Australia's severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak (28 September 2016)
communication, fire weather
One of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks recorded in South Australia impacted central and...
Thermodynamics of pyrocumulus formation
29 Jun 2017
Thermodynamics of pyrocumulus formation
communication, fire weather
In favourable atmospheric conditions, large hot fires can produce pyrocumulus cloud: deep...
Ensemble prediction of the East Coast Low of April 2015
29 Jun 2017
Ensemble prediction of the East Coast Low of April 2015
communication, flood
Between 20-23 April 2015 the eastern coast of Australia was affected by a low-pressure system,...
Will Thurston Conference Poster 2016
14 Aug 2016
Is fire moisture importance for pyrocumulus development?
fire severity, remote sensing
Pyrocumulonimbus clouds have been linked to highly dangerous fire behaviour.
Modelling the Fire Weather of the Blue Mountains Fires of October 2013
18 Aug 2015
Modelling the Fire Weather of the Blue Mountains Fires of October 2013
communication, fire weather
High resolution simulations over the Blue Mountains Region on 17 October 2013 show several...
Long-Range Spotting by Bushfire Plumes: The Effects of In-Plume Turbulence on Firebrand Trajectory
18 Aug 2015
Long-Range Spotting by Bushfire Plumes: The Effects of In-Plume Turbulence on Firebrand Trajectory
communication, fire weather
Large-eddy simulations of bushfire plumes are combined with firebrand trajectory calculations to...

Resources credited

Type Released Title Download Key Topics
Presentation-Audio-Video 02 Jul 2020 The PyrcoCb Firepower Threshold (PFT): a tool for pyrocumulonimbus prediction by Kevin Tory File Save (0 bytes) fire weather, severe weather, storm surge
Presentation-Slideshow 27 Aug 2019 The PyroCb Firepower Threshold: A pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool PDF icon Save (9.16 MB) fire weather, severe weather
Presentation-Slideshow 27 Aug 2019 A case study of South Australia's severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak (28 September 2016) PDF icon Save (4.84 MB) communication, flood
Presentation-Audio-Video 13 Dec 2018 The development of a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool: AFAC webinar File Save (0 bytes) communities, fire, fire impacts
Presentation-Slideshow 19 Sep 2018 The development of a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool PDF icon Save (2.01 MB) fire impacts, fire severity
Presentation-Slideshow 31 Oct 2017 Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact PDF icon Save (1.93 MB) forecasting, mitigation, severe weather
Presentation-Slideshow 07 Sep 2017 Thermodynamics of pyrocumulus formation PDF icon Save (2.79 MB) fire, fire weather, severe weather
Presentation-Slideshow 07 Sep 2017 Extreme weather: improved data products on bushfires, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and east coast lows PDF icon Save (1.3 MB) fire weather, multi-hazard, severe weather
HazardNoteEdition 12 Dec 2016 Fire escalation by downslope winds PDF icon Save (1.08 MB) fire impacts, fire severity, fire weather
HazardNoteEdition 28 Nov 2016 Monitoring and predicting natural hazards PDF icon Save (853.18 KB) forecasting, modelling, severe weather
Presentation-Slideshow 24 Oct 2016 Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community risk PDF icon Save (9.18 MB) forecasting, modelling, severe weather
Presentation-Slideshow 30 Aug 2016 The effects of turbulent plume dynamics on long-range spotting - Will Thurston PDF icon Save (2.56 MB) fire, fire severity, fire weather
Presentation-Slideshow 11 Sep 2015 Large-eddy simulations of pyro-convection and its sensitivity to environmental conditions PDF icon Save (1.24 MB) environments, fire weather, modelling

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