Capturing the variability of wind for modelling the variability of bushfires

Understanding uncertainty in fire modelling, and characterising predictions in terms of likelihood or risk, allows fire managers and emergency services to make more informed decisions. Hazard Note 53 showcases PhD research findings from Dr Rachael Quill, who investigated how the variability of wind impacts fire spread. 

By adopting a statistical approach, this PhD study analysed the variability of wind direction and strength, working towards a statistical characterisation of wind over complex terrain. Better modelling of the uncertainty of wind can feed directly into fire spread models, allowing fire behaviour analysts and managers to make more informed decisions.

Further reading

Quill R (2017), Statistical characterisation of wind fields over complex terrain with applications in bushfire modelling, PhD Thesis. School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of NSW Canberra