Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018-19: November

Above normal fire potential remains across large parts of southern Australia, as first identified in September’s Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018 (Hazard Note 51).

Rain in areas of eastern Australia during spring, while welcome, was not enough to recover from the long term dry conditions. Wet conditions currently being experienced across parts of coastal New South Wales will help, but it will not take long once heat and dry conditions return for vegetation to dry out.

For example, the April to November period has seen Queensland record the ninth driest and fourth hottest period on record, New South Wales the eighth driest and fourth hottest period on record, and Victoria the 13th driest and seventh hottest period on record. These conditions have resulted in the expectation of above normal fire potential across large parts of Queensland, New South Wales, the ACT, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia.

It is important to remember that normal fire conditions can still produce fast running and large fires.

See the full Outlook by clicking the DOWNLOAD button at top right.