CRC modelling highlighted as key to managing risk

Sophisticated modelling software developed by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC has been highlighted by the Investor Group on Climate Change as a key tool to help navigate future climate risk.

The guide - Investing in Resilience: Tools and Frameworks for Managing Physical Risk - provides a snapshot of emerging tools and resources to help investors assess and manage physical climate risk.

The UNHaRMED, scenario risk modelling tool, developed by the Improved decision support for natural hazard mitigation project led by Prof Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell (University of Adelaide) is helping government, planning authorities and emergency service agencies think through the costs and consequences of various options on preparing for major disasters on their urban infrastructure and natural environments. Importantly, it also allows future changes to be taken into account, giving a complete picture on the impact of certain polices and land use management decisions.

Being highlighted on such an important list shows the importance and versatility of the software, says Mr Riddell.

“The inclusion of UNHaRMED in IGCC’s Tools and Frameworks for Managing Physical Risk shows the broad appeal for improved risk information and better evidence-based decision making for reducing risk into the future. We are excited to continue to apply UNHaRMED to help governments, emergency service agencies and investor groups to better understand their exposure to climate risk and reduce it through better planning and investment,” Mr Riddell said. 

As our population increases and our urban boundaries continue to expand, the ability to think long term is critical to get where we need to be as a society, says Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC CEO, Dr Richard Thornton.

“The policies and settlement patterns of the past are proving inadequate for the challenges of the future and in many instances are intensifying the exposure to risk. Tools such as UNHaRMED will help governments at all levels to improve their policies around land-use planning and infrastructure development, increasing the resilience of their communities. The software is also relevant to industry and investors,” Dr Thornton said.

Investing in Resilience: Tools and Frameworks for Managing Physical Risk lays out some of the key concepts, issues and challenges associated with adaptation and provides a snapshot of emerging resources to help manage for resilience.

The guide is the latest in a series of resources that the Investor Group on Climate Change has developed in recent years to assess key climate risks across major industry sectors and identify means of investing in adaptation. It was initially developed in a workshop, co-hosted with NAB in June 2018, mapping the landscape of emerging tools and resources for managing climate resilience.  It has been shaped and framed by investors and the finance community to accelerate the management of resilience across the Australian economy. 

Read the Investing in Resilience: Tools and Frameworks for Managing Physical Risk guide here.

More about UNHaRMED

Taking into account future changes in demographics, land use, economics and climate, the modelling analyses areas of risk from bushfires, flooding and earthquakes both now and into the future. It lets governments, agencies or investors tests risk reduction options, identifies mitigation portfolios that provide the best outcomes for a given budget, and considers single or combinations of risk reduction options, such as land use planning, structural measures and community education. CRC partners, along with local governments have been engaged in the entire process, from direction on the hazards to include and feedback on process, to advice on how the modelling will be used when complete and by whom.  

Three case studies have been completed to date – Adelaide, Melbourne and Tasmania – and based on their success, further work began in Western Australia in 2017, funded through the National Disaster Resilience Program.  

Emergency service agencies will be able to use the system to help allocate budgets, demonstrating that they are using the best available science to inform decision-making. This study is the only approach that compares different natural hazards and their mitigation options, while also taking into account long term planning. The ultimate aim is to develop a decision support framework and software system that is sufficiently flexible to be applied to large and small cities around Australia that will help planners from local councils through to state treasury departments answer the vital question on mitigation options that balance cost and impact: ‘what is the best we can be doing?’

This project is an outstanding example of the collaborative process that the CRC is all about, and incorporates findings from other CRC work on recognising non-financial benefits of management and policy for natural hazards, for example, the economic, social and environmental benefits of prescribed burning, the vulnerability of buildings to hazards, such as how they can be made more resilient through cost-effective retrofitting for improved safety, and the benefits and understanding of community resilience efforts like improved warnings, community engagement, education, volunteering and community resilience.