New online - January 2021

The latest CRC research, including new final project reports and journal articles, is now available on the website. Read all the details in January’s summary below.

CRC final reports

With the Urban planning for natural hazard mitigation project now complete, the final report detailing the major outcomes and research findings is now available, by Prof Alan March and Dr Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes from the University of Melbourne. This project investigated the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia, and the ways in which key planning processes for risk-based decision making in the built environment can be improved. In doing so, the research team identified many gaps in the ways urban planning and natural hazard risk management are integrated together. Learnings from this project were captured in a set of scalable and adaptable diagnostic tools that are part of critical frameworks for best practice in integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia. These diagnostic tools allow assessment of integration and risk management across urban planning and emergency management systems and processes.

The Improving decision-making in complex multi-team environments project has been completed and the research team comprising A/Prof Chris Bearman (CQUniversity), A/Prof Benjamin Brooks (University of Tasmania), A/Prof Christine Owen (University of Tasmania), Dr Steven Curnin (University of Tasmania), Dr Peter Hastings (Queensland University of Technology) and Heather Stuart (NSW SES) have written the final project report, Improving decision making, teamwork and organisational learning in emergency management. This project developed simple practical tools that can help people better manage their teamwork, improve their decision making and develop more creative solutions. These include the Team Process Checklist, Emergency Management Breakdown Aide Memoire, Psychological Safety Checklist and Cognitive Bias Aide Memoire. In addition, the project considered how organisations utilise the outcomes of research and developed a tool to help agencies utilise research more effectively. In addition to creating tools that help better manage teams and make more effective decisions, members of the project team have also developed methods to help people to act more creatively during operations. These tools have now seen excellent utilisation by emergency management agencies in Australia and have attracted growing interest from international partners in the UK and Spain.

The final project report for the Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia project has been written by Adj Prof Jeremy Russell-Smith, Kamaljit Sangha and Dr Andrew Edwards from Charles Darwin University. The project has developed a framework to aid fire and emergency services agencies in engaging with remote Indigenous communities in order to improve emergency services delivery. The research has developed a suite of case studies through which interviews and workshops have been conducted with members of the now-widespread Indigenous Ranger Groups to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Rangers to engage in emergency management activities. This final report summarises the activities undertaken and information gathered to date. This project has also continued the service delivery program of land management and monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia. The research team provided information with respect to the spatial distribution and effects of fire on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring and Evaluation Reporting Framework, also developed through the project.

Steve Sutton from Charles Darwin University has written the final project report for the Northern Australian bushfire and natural hazard training project. Over the duration of this project, several desktop reviews were undertaken to examine the existing bushfire and natural hazard training in remote northern Australia offerings, as well as the opportunities that existed at the time for Indigenous community members to obtain leadership training. The reviews found that where training existed it largely omitted Indigenous perspectives, particularly in terms of strategic overviews and planning. In response to the views of project participants and the reviews, the project developed a set of training units that, taken together, drew together the essential elements of Indigenous and non-Indigenous bushfire and natural hazard training in a Vocational Education and Training style program. Nine formal ‘engagements’ were held over the life of the project, including workshops and three training pilots. In each pilot, different components of the ten training units were presented and refined. A detailed and culturally appropriate evaluation was undertaken of each pilot and the feedback was incorporated into the next ‘round’ of pilot training.

CRC reports

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project team, Dr Blythe McLennan (RMIT University), Dr Patrick Dunlop (Curtin University), Dr Darja Kragt (University of Western Australia), Dr Djurre Holtrop (University of Western Australia), Prof Marylène Gagné (Curtin University), Dr Alex Luksyte (University of Western Australia) and Hawa Muhammad Farid (University of Western Australia), has produced its annual project report for 2019/20. The report communicates the key activities and achievements of the project’s two work packages during its third year of research—work package 1, Emergency volunteering 2030, and work package 2, changing management practices.

Glenn James (NAILSMA), Dr Bevlyne Sithole (Charles Darwin University), Danny Burton (Charles Darwin University) and Adj Prof Jeremy Russell-Smith (Charles Darwin University) have completed the 2019/20 annual report for the Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote northern Australian communities project. This report summarises research into the preparation and response to two cyclones in the Northern Territory, Nathan and Lam, that struck east and central Arnhem Land in 2015—one using NAILSMA support with Yolngu in Galiwinku and the other supported by ARPNet with Bininj in Ramingining.

From the Queensland University of Technology, A/Prof Dominque Greer, Dr Paula Dootson, Dr Sophie Miller and Prof Vivienne Tippett have written a report for the Effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards project. Supplementing emergency warning messages to encourage readiness to act: the effect of colours and icons examines the effect of adding icons and/or colours to official warnings, given the written elements of warning messages are optimised to encourage readiness to act. The research investigates whether emergency warning messages can be further optimised by adding colours and/or icons to encourage even higher levels of readiness to act on emergency instructions.

Prof Mehmet Ulubasoglu from Deakin University has produced a report for the Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia project. The Guidance note for replication of case studies - Black Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Oswald, Queensland floods and Toodyay bushfire outlines two main considerations in the first step of the project methodology in the context of the project’s four case study disasters. The two considerations are: the identification of disaster-affected areas, the treatment group, which may be measured in different statistical units; and the determination of the comparison, areas that can provide the counterfactual incomes had there been no disaster, or the control group.

The research team of the Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows project, Dr Harald Richter (Bureau of Meteorology), Craig Arthur (Geoscience Australia), David Wilke (Bureau of Meteorology), Mark Dunford (Geoscience Australia), Martin Wehner (Geoscience Australia) and Beth Ebert (Bureau of Meteorology), have written a Report on the second end-user workshop. A virtual end-user workshop was held on 25 and 27 August 2020 to present key outcomes of the project and focused on four key themes: verifying impact forecasts, demonstrating evolution of impact forecasts, identifying needs to deliver and support future impact forecast products, and future utilisation opportunities.

Journal articles

CRC research is featured in two papers in the newest issue of the Australian Journal of Emergency Management.

Driving into floodwater: using data from emergency responders to inform workplace safety policy and practice was written by Dr Mel Taylor (Macquarie University), Tim Wiebusch (VICSES), Benjamin Beccari (VICSES, Monash University), Dr Katharine Haynes (University of Wollongong), Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed (Macquarie University) and Dr Matalena Tofa (Macquarie University) for the Flood risk communication project. This paper presents findings from a larger study into the circumstances in which SES personnel drive through floodwater in SES or private vehicles. Outcomes from this research will inform policy, practice and training to improve safety, keep staff and equipment safe and model good practice in communities.

Drawing on research from the Economics of natural hazards project is the paper, Economic analysis of natural hazard mitigation using the Quick Economic Analysis Tool, written by Dr Veronique Florec and Dr Abbie Rogers from the University of Western Australia. The paper describes the Quick Economic Analysis Tool and uses a case study of two prescribed burn annual rates compared with results of an in-depth analysis of the application of different prescribed burn annual rates over the long-term that took several years to complete. This study showed that the quick analysis tool would allow fire managers to identify options worthy of business cases and to capture the information needed to increase confidence in their decisions.

Relating to the Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling project is research by Dr Mika Peace (Bureau of Meteorology), Joseph Charney (US Department of Agriculture) and John Bally (AFAC) published in Atmosphere. Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire prediction and meteorological products provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian fire agencies discusses the operational use of fire predictions and simulators, learnings from CFA models and potential future directions for the Bureau of Meteorology in using CFA models to support fire prediction activities.

Published in Weather and Forecasting is the paper Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: Assessing the atmospheric potential for pyroCb written by Dr Kevin Tory and Dr Jeff Kepert from the Bureau of Meteorology. Drawing on research from the Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact project, the paper presents an approach to calculate the PyroCb Firepower Threshold that incorporates basic plume-rise physics, yielding an analytic solution that offers important insight into plume behaviour and pyroCb formation.

Unrealised economic opportunities in remote Indigenous communities: Case studies from northern Australia was written by Kamaljit Sangha (Charles Darwin University), Adele Duvert (Charles Darwin University), Ricky Archer (NAILSMA) and Adj Prof Jeremy Russell-Smith (Charles Darwin University), and published in Social Sciences & Humanities Open. Relating to the Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote northern Australian communities project, the paper offers a detailed analysis of the existing socio-economic situation of selected communities, outlines potential land-based economic opportunities, and advocates for a shift in policy planning from viewing remote communities as a problem to realising advantages of their unique prospects to develop the north.

Research relating to the Effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards project has been published in Disasters by A/Prof Amisha Mehta, Scott Murray, Cindy Hammill, Dr Paula Dootson and Rebecca Langdon from the Queensland University of Technology. Checks and balances: A business‐oriented lens on disaster management and warnings presents a two-phased, mixed method approach to overcome the research record’s focus on policy favoured towards disaster mitigation rather than response. Findings showed the planning related to experience and knowledge but not to business-related protective action intentions, and that modified messages were perceived as more effective and resulted in greater action intentions for those with bushfire experience. The article provides implications for small business-orientated disaster risk communication.

From the University of Melbourne, Jamie Burton, Dr Jane Cawson, Dr Alexander Filkov and A/Prof Trent Penman have published the paper Leaf traits predict global patterns in the structure and flammability of forest litter beds in the Journal of Ecology. Drawing on research from the Threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour project, the paper identifies key leaf and litter traits which influence different components of litter bed flammability, showing that the effects of these leaf and litter traits are consistent across a wide range of taxa and biomes. The study represents a significant step towards developing trait‐based models for predicting surface wildfire behaviour.

Li Zhao, A/Prof Marta Yebra, Prof Albert van Dijk and A/Prof Geoff Cary from the Australian National University, along with Dr Stuart Matthews (NSW RFS) and A/Prof Gary Sheridan (University of Melbourne), have written the paper The influence of soil moisture on surface and sub-surface litter fuel moisture simulation at five Australian sites published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Relating to Li’s PhD project, Spatially forecasting coupled litter and root moisture dynamics for bushfire management and the Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts project, the paper aimed to evaluate how soil moisture content may affect litter fuel moisture content by coupling soil moisture as a boundary condition to the physics-based ‘Koba’ model, which simulates radiation, energy and moisture fluxes in the surface and subsurface litter layer.

Michael Storey (University of Wollongong), Dr Owen Price, Miguel Almeida (Association for the Development of Industrial Aerodynamics), Carlos Ribeiro (Association for the Development of Industrial Aerodynamics), Prof Ross Bradstock and Prof Jason Sharples (University of New South Wales) have written the paper Experiments on the influence of spot fire and topography interaction on fire rate of spread for the journal PLOS ONE. Relating to Michael’s PhD project, Empirical analysis of spot fire and ember behaviour during extreme fire weather conditions, the paper explored the influence of manually ignited spot fires, the presence or absence of a model hill and their interaction on combined fire rate of spread, suggesting that under certain topographic ocnditions, spot fires can allow a fire to overcome the low spread potential of downslopes.

The lived experience of disadvantaged communities affected by the 2015 South Indian Floods: Implications for disaster risk reduction dialogue was published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction and written by associate student Revathi Nuggehalli Krishna (Monash University), the late Prof Kevin Ronan (CQUniversity), Caroline Spencer (Monash University) and A/Prof Eva Alisic (University of Melbourne). Drawing on Revathi’s PhD research, Coping with disasters by children and families who live in poverty, the paper narrates the lived experience of underprivileged flood-affected communities. The results describe how systemic issues entrenched with socio-economic and cultural factors impact a community’s ability to prepare for floods.

Research by associate student Russell Dippy from Charles Sturt University was outlined in his paper, Professionalism: certification for emergency management leaders published in the Australian Journal of Emergnecy Management. Relating to his PhD project, What human capacity demands should inform the development and appointment of an emergency manager? , the paper draws from research that examines the human-capacity lessons from past events that develop future emergency managers to examine current options and arrangements that exist through national and international certification systems to recognise people’s leadership capacity.