Published works

Natural hazards are an unavoidable component of life in Australia, but with effective planning and mitigation spending, their impacts can be minimised significantly. Analysis shows an average cost of natural hazards in Australia for 2015 totalled $9.6 billion, and this figure is projected to increase to $33 billion by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). These figures correspond to a substantial impact and coupled with the social and environmental impacts of disasters, paint a bleak picture. However, tomorrow’s risk is a function of decisions made today, including the developments permitted and laws passed, and as such there is significant scope to minimise tomorrow’s impacts.

To assist in the understanding of tomorrow’s risk, driven by changing hazards, exposure and vulnerability, a decision support system (DSS) and integrated use process have been developed. This DSS models risk into the future and how it is driven by climatic, economic and demographic factors. Figure 1 shows the integration of risk across exposure, vulnerability and hazard along with some of the factors that are encompassed, as well as the drivers and uncertainties surrounding these factors that make the future so hard to predict.