Published works

The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its
contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning.

The RMPP project draws on human geography, political science, legal studies and science, technology and society studies, to investigate how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It will use qualitative social science methods including scenario exercises, theoretical tools and case studies, to analyse how diverse knowledges are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum.

This research report outlines how scenario exercises may be used for understanding risk mitigation decision-making, as scenario exercises will inform a core component of the RMPP project. The report outlines what scenario exercise are, why they are used, and how they can be used to achieve the aims of the RMPP project. The focus is on environmental scenarios: that is, scenarios about environmental challenges. Literature about scenarios for other purposes, such as business and strategy, are included where appropriate.