Published works

Factors providing long-range predictability for this system include the pre-existing moisture content of vegetation (using agricultural drought measures), large-scale modes of variability (e.g., El Nino), sudden stratospheric warmings (e.g., polar vortex variations contributed to the severity of the 2019/20 summer) and long-term climate change.

The guidance products were designed with a user-driven approach, based on strong end-user engagement throughout the project. These long-range predictions are part of broader efforts to deliver seamless guidance over a wide range of time scales. Fire weather predictions and data are now available in a consistent form for long-range predictions out to several months ahead, historical records back to 1950 and future climate projections throughout this century. A seamless service across different time scales is intended to enhance planning capabilities from short to long time-scales, leading to enhanced resilience and disaster risk reduction for natural hazards. These fire weather outlooks have been described as a step change in improved capability, developed through user engagement, including for supporting risk reduction in prescribed burning and operational planning requirements.