End User representatives
Disaster mitigation planning is characterised by the need to make decisions in an increasingly complex environment. This complexity comes in a number of forms, including (i) the need to make decisions by selecting from a very large number of options, making it difficult to know which is best, (ii) the need to consider multiple, often competing, objectives during decision-making processes to account for a range of social, economic and environmental criteria, (iii) a lack of clearly-defined, measurable criteria with which to assess the utility of decisions, and (iv) uncertainty in future conditions, data and information.
At the same time, community expectation in relation to the level of protection that can be provided against disasters is increasing. Consequently, there is increased scrutiny of the decisions made in relation to disaster mitigation, necessitating more transparency in the decisionmaking processes and the wise use of limited resources.
Decision-support tools that enable these goals to be achieved do not currently exist. Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use and climate.
The project is producing a framework for the development and use of a decision support system. The development aspects propose a generic framework for the integration of models to bridge the science-policy gap through a collaboration between scientists, endusers and IT specialists. The use process focuses on the application of the generic system to a region; in this project three case study locations are being considered in Adelaide, Melbourne and Tasmania.
On the Adelaide case study, one journal paper has been published with several others almost ready for submission. Three workshops have been held with end-users. A prototype decision support tool has been developed out of this case study, with similar tools in the early stage of development from the Melbourne and Tasmania case studies.
Building on the evaluation of risk: incorporating the evolution of hazard risk over time with dynamic modelling of exposure.
Land use policies hold the greatest long-term risk reduction potential but are under-utilised.
We have developed a decision support system with potential to transform planning for risk reduction in Australia.
|Mapping and understanding bushfire and natural hazard vulnerability and risks at the institutional scale||Prof Roger Jones||Victoria University|
|Economics of natural hazards||Prof David Pannell||University of Western Australia|
|Pre-disaster multihazard damage and economic loss estimation model||Prof Mehmet Ulubasoglu||Deakin University|
|Policies, institutions and governance of natural hazards||A/Prof Michael Eburn||Australian National University|
|Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy and planning||Dr Jessica Weir||Western Sydney University|
|Natural hazard exposure information modelling framework||Dr Krishna Nadimpalli||Geoscience Australia|
|Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk||Prof Michael Griffith||University of Adelaide|
|Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings||Dr Tariq Maqsood||Geoscience Australia|
|Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events||A/Prof John Ginger||James Cook University|
|An analysis of building losses and human fatalities from natural disasters||Dr Katharine Haynes||Macquarie University|
|Using realistic disaster scenario analysis to understand natural hazard impacts and emergency management requirements||Dr Thomas Loridan||Macquarie University|