Published works

Decision support systems (DSS) that contain integrate models for the assessment of natural hazard mitigation options are an important component of robust, transparent, and long-term mitigation planning. Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use, economics and climate. Consequently, a generic decision support system for the long-term planning for natural disaster risk reduction is being developed through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. The project consists of implementing an iterative development and use cycle across three different case studies. The development aspect of this cycle focuses on creating a generic framework for the integration of models to answer policy relevant questions, in this case for improved understanding and reduction of disaster risk. The use process tailors this framework to each of three case study regions, Greater Adelaide, Greater & Peri-Urban Melbourne and Tasmania.

The focus of 2015-2016 has been on the use cycle for Greater Adelaide, with a first prototype of the software application presented to end-users and five exploratory scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively developed that capture policy-relevant uncertainties in the development of Greater Adelaide. The DSS application in its first iteration provides annual expected losses from coastal inundation, riverine flooding, bushfire and earthquake. The entire use process has been driven by several stages of stakeholder engagement involving SA’s State Mitigation Advisory Group. Work has also begun on the Greater & Peri-urban Melbourne case study with the first stage of stakeholder engagement occurring on the 21st – 23rd October 2015. This involved questionnaires, semi-structured interviews and a workshop to collect information on spatial region, hazards, drivers for change, risk reduction options and indicators of interest. Model development followed focussing initially on the central land use model, and data have also been collected for hazard modelling. Further stakeholder work will occur in the second half of this year including presentation of a first iteration of the software, and its integrated use process of exploratory scenario development. The first stage of stakeholder engagement for the Tasmania case study occurred on 4th – 6th November 2015. Similar information was collected regarding inputs to the system’s development. The spatial region considered initially excluded the World Heritage and National Park sites on the South West of the island, but this has changed due to fire events over summer 2015/16. Due to this change in scope the DSS development has been delayed, with a first iteration of the software now planned to be completed in 2017.
Other work has also involved the development of specific hazard models by project team members to be integrated within the systems for each of the case studies. These include a riverine flood and coastal inundation model, and a bushfire risk assessment model co-developed with SA’s Department of Environment, Water & Natural Resources (DEWNR).