Published works

We provide a preliminary analysis of the meteorology of key aspects of the Gell River fire in Tasmania during late December 2018 and early January 2019, including the lightning storm that ignited the fire, and conditions on 4 January 2019, when the fire increased substantially in size. We also briefly assess the performance of the Australian National Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) Research Prototype available on 4 January against observations of fire spread and routine McArthur Forest Fire Danger forecasts.

The Gell River fire occurred within a context of declining October – April rainfall in western Tasmania over the last two decades, in comparison to the average rainfall for the period since 1900 (Fig. 1, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2018)). It was one of several large fires that competed for fire management resources over an extended period during the 2018-2019 Tasmanian fire season. The fire impacted natural values including those of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) and risked spreading into parts of the iconic Mt Field National Park, as well as threatening a number of communities in the Derwent Valley, particularly Maydena. The Gell River fire also threatened major electrical transmission infrastructure connecting the large Gordon-Pedder power generation facility in the west of Tasmania to population centres in the east, and burnt approximately 500 ha of a 5,000 ha pine plantation. On 4 January, thick smoke from the fire crossed over the Greater Hobart area, sparking concern and raising awareness within the wider community about the fire activity (Fig. 2).