Preparing communities for sea level rise and increased coastal flooding is a difficult task. This research has helped advance the development and analysis of improved long-term coastal adaption strategies under the conditions of uncertainty. Billions of dollars of infrastructure in Australia could be threatened by rising sea levels by the end of the century. Although such timeframes appear distant, planning and development decisions made today will help to mitigate these future threats. Coastal infrastructure, such as roads, utilities, rail, residential and commercial buildings, often last between 20-100 years. This research developed an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management.

Utilising three case studies in south east Australia, the study combines the strengths of robust decision making and dynamic adaptive policy pathways – both prominent tools to support decision making under conditions of uncertainty – together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning. The findings can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

This project was completed in 2018.